The US-Europe Defence Divide
It’s an exceptionally strange time to be half British, half American. The two countries seem to be drifting apart, less than ten years after the UK declared its intention to leave the European Union. As I write these words, I have a very strange sense of limbo - caught between three varying senses of loyalty (the US, the UK, and the EU), while being entirely unable to fit into any single one.
Maybe, for that reason, it’s the perfect opportunity for me to take a look at the two sides of the ongoing US-Europe defence disagreement. I should point out that I don’t fully associate with one argument over the other - again, how could I?
The US Perspective
Since as far back as at least the Clinton administration - which ended in 2001 - every US President (including Clinton himself) who occupied the Oval Office lamented that not enough NATO allies were paying their fair share. Prior to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, only 8 out of the 29 countries* in the organisation met the commitment of spending 2% of national GDP on defence. Even two years after Ukraine was attacked in 2022, 8 countries still did not meet their spending commitment despite enjoying all of the benefits that come with membership.
If you ask an American, they’ll probably tell you its no surprise that so many European countries have spare finances for strong welfare states - their militaries are halfway paid for by Washington DC, and have been for decades.
US Vice President JD Vance criticises European leaders at the Munich Security Conference. Source: APNews
Of course, it was deeply unsettling to see President Trump state that he’d “encourage Russia to do whatever the hell they want” to NATO members that are still not meeting their commitment. But now, with Trump actually in the White House, European countries are calling for greater defence at home - France is discussing a domestic nuclear weapons umbrella with Germany, previously neutral Sweden and Finland have joined NATO and immediately met their spending commitment, and stocks for European defence contractors are soaring amid anticipation of more large orders for Ukraine.
In true Trump fashion, there were far more smooth, diplomatic ways to handle the situation. And while there has been a diplomatic speed bump across the Atlantic, there’s no doubt that most (if not all) of Europe is bolstering domestic defence by paying its fair share - which is all the US is asking for. Besides, every other country outside of NATO pays for their own militaries already - if Uganda, Paraguay, and Timor-Leste can pay for their defence, then Spain and Canada can too.
The Trump administration also clearly wants to end the war in Ukraine - and ending a war is surely a good thing, isn’t it?
The European Perspective
Alarm bells have likely been ringing nonstop in Brussels since November 2024. Trump, who is widely suspected of having personal ties to Russia, the exact country attacking Europe, a relative stone’s throw from NATO’s frontlines in Poland and Romania.
To Europe, Washington’s willingness to pause aid and intelligence to Kyiv after a disastrous argument between Trump and Zelenskyy in early March signaled the worst, short term nightmare for the European security landscape: that the US could not only no longer be relied on for defence anymore, but that nobody could - the only realistic alternatives are China, which isn’t anywhere near Europe, or Russia, which is exactly whom the EU and NATO hope to defend themselves against.
US and Russian officials negotiate in Saudi Arabia - without Ukrainians present. Source: SkyNews
As for ending the war in Ukraine - the terms are barely in anyone’s interests besides Washington and Moscow’s. The peace plan’s details were not even revealed at the 2025 Munich Security Conference in February, with negotiations bypassing the EU and Ukraine entirely - in fact, a Ukrainian delegation was not even invited to the first few conferences. It certainly doesn’t help, either, that Europe has a legacy of appeasing dictators, only to have them continue seizing land. One of the greatest reasons that Hitler was able to continue conquering is that land was, quite simply, handed over to him - the devastation of WWI meant that so many countries were unwilling to engage in another European land war, so the territory was simply relinquished with minimal protest.
Europe is, therefore, terrified that the continent’s future will be determined by two powers - one hostile, the other foreign (and, debatably, increasingly hostile as well).
TAI Score: Degree 4. While the situation is undoubtedly tense, there may be some benefit in the short term over a 30-day ceasefire and possible end to the war in Ukraine. In the longer term, however, a rift between Europe and the US would create more problems than it solves - with China and Russia likely to reap the greatest benefits.
*The eight countries were (in order from highest to lowest) Greece, the US, Poland, the UK, Croatia, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania.
The Darkest Town on Earth
SimpleNation has never been one to shy away from strange geography - rather, that’s what the core purpose of this site is. In the past, the site has looked at capital cities with a population of zero, a ladder that could spark a holy war, an island where a bottle of whiskey was at the heart of an inter-continental dispute, and an area where the local tribe believes that pretending to run an airport will grant them vast wealth.
Source: Google Maps
When you read the title of today’s article, you would be forgiven for thinking that it referred to a polar region - the world’s most northern, permanently inhabited place is Alert, Canada, which is so far north that it sees the sun for the final time on October 13th, until it rises again on February 28th, indicating five straight months of darkness. By contrast, however, this means that during the summer, it experiences five straight months of sunlight, indicating that it cannot be the “darkest” place on Earth.
You’d be correct by guessing that the darkest town is in a sub-polar country - more specifically, it’s located in Norway. But how does Rjukan, located west of Oslo in the country’s south, experience less sunlight than anywhere else permanently inhabited?
Aside from being the site of a heavy water sabotage operation during WWII, Rjukan’s unique physical geography places it at the bottom of a valley, where the sun does not crest above the mountain walls between September and March, leaving the town without direct sunlight for six straight months - longer than even the North and South Poles.
The solution put in place is simple: indirect sunlight.
The mirrors reflect a patch of sunlight into an otherwise darkened town. Source: Mahabis
Rjukan’s residents constructed three large mirrors known as the Solspeilet in 2013, to reflect the sun’s rays into town to combat seasonal depression. The sunlight shines directly into the town square - a bizarre oasis of sunlight in an otherwise entirely shaded town. Previously, to stand in the sunlight during the six months of darkness, residents had to ride a cable car up the mountainside to reach an altitude high enough to be out of the shade. Although the cable car is still operational and somewhat popular, and some residents reportedly viewed the Solspeilet as a “vanity project and criminal waste of money” at first, it has since come to be celebrated as something that brings undeniable joy to residents, even among those initially sceptical.
As we - at least, here in the northern hemisphere - move into spring, Rjukan is a great reminder for us to enjoy the sunshine where possible - and be creative to find a solution where it isn’t.
“Just Don’t Tell Mother”
As with any other superpower - or even regional power - Russia has seen its fair share of wars.
Since 1945, Russian (or, at least, Soviet) troops have been deployed in Europe, Africa, Georgia, and Cuba. Russian submarines have even been sighted by the Philippines’ navy near the South China Sea.
Three almost entirely unrelated wars, however, stand out in Russia’s history for a reason you wouldn’t particularly expect: music. Specifically, one particular song.
Afghan officers thank Soviet soldiers for support against the Mujahideen, now Taliban, in 1980. Source: RussiaBeyond
Fearing the expansion of growing US influence on its southern border, and an inability to fulfill support for a semi-friendly government in Kabul, Russia invaded Afghanistan in 1979. The nine-year war that followed depleted Soviet finances and badly damaged its military, once again lending credence to Afghanistan’s nickname as “The Graveyard of Empires”. However, a song with the (English) title of “Hello Sister” emerged in which a - presumably - Russian soldier named Vladimir Andriyuk sang the content of the letters he wrote to home. The song was later re-named to the only request the Andriyuk made to his sister: Just Don’t Tell Mother I’m In Afghanistan.
The song (and hyperlinked video above) do not detail anything particularly graphic - mainly describing asking about how “the snow has probably covered the roads at home” and providing vague descriptions of battles from previous days. Curiously, the lyrics also describe “Stars falling in Kandahar’s sky” which, considering the red star insignia of the USSR, seems to be a striking foreshadowing of Russian history after 1989.
Even more curiously, the song’s message appears to have outlived the Soviet Union itself.
By 1994, only 3 years after the formal dissolution of the USSR, the satellite states - such as Romania, Ukraine, and Central Asian nations - gained their independence. Even during the Cold War, these countries were considered to be “tied to” Russia, rather than a part of Russia itself. When Chechnya, which had at no point been considered a satellite state, attempted to declare independence, the response from Moscow was brutal, and emerged in the shape of the First Chechen War.
1994 was not only the first war in Chechnya - but also the first re-emergence of Andriyuk’s song, now titled Just Don’t Tell Mother I’m In Chechnya. The lyrics hadn’t changed much - other than to re-adapt location names and other details from how conflict had changed between Afghanistan and Chechnya. The 1994 version is perhaps the most famous rendition of the song.
While Russia’s invasion of Georgia didn’t produce a new version of the song - likely because of the conflict’s short length of only five days - it did not seem, at least for a while, that the 2022 invasion of Ukraine would produce one either. And, officially speaking, there still isn’t one.
An unknown Russian soldier plays a guitar, singing Just Don’t Tell Mother I’m in Bakhmut, high up on the balcony in what appears to be the remains of a skyscraper. Source: YouTube
And then, on December 15th, 2023, footage emerged of a Russian soldier - nearly unnoticeable in his camoflauge uniform, if it weren’t for the brown guitar in his hands - emerged on what appears to be a balcony several stories high. While the camera pans across the devastated landscape, the soldier sings an all too familiar ballad, whose lyrics translate to Just Don’t Tell Mother I’m In Bakhmut, in reference to the city in eastern Ukraine, signaling the song’s longevity across 50 years, three generations, and three different wars.
Taiwan’s Reversed Political Spectrum
When we look at political spectrums across the world - or at the very least, across the Western world - we see some rare commonalities. Far left parties tend to advocate for violent revolt against capitalism and social hierarchies, usually resulting in either communism or mass anarchy. By contrast, far-right parties usually advocate for some form of ethno-nationalism and the belief that society should be organised along the lines of inflexible communities such as race, religion, or culture.
Through a somewhat confusing series of self-perceptions and historical outcomes, Taiwan’s political spectrum is completely and utterly reversed.
Most historians will tell you that the Chinese Civil War ended on December 7th, 1949, with the communist People’s Liberation Army securing the entire mainland while the semi-democratic, right-wing capitalist Kuomintang Nationalists withdrew to Taiwan.
The Nationalists, to this day, still view themselves as the legitimate government of China, despite having lost the war 80 years ago and not even being in power in Taiwan. In fact, as recently as the summer of 2024, the former president and leader of the Nationalist party asserted that they still advocate for peaceful re-unification - though, most likely, under the KMT’s terms, almost certain to be dismissed by Beijing. Nevertheless, the party still calls for negotiations and open dialogue with China and its Communist Party
By contrast, the Democratic People’s Party (DPP), a left-wing party, rejects the idea that there isn’t a difference between Chinese and Taiwanese people. Their supporters back the idea too: a growing number of people, especially young people, see themselves as not Chinese, not “both”, but as strictly “Taiwanese”. Geographic separation, combined with the real threat from China, have turned people away from Beijing - and towards themselves, effectively creating a new ethnicity.
Therefore, Taiwan’s political spectrum is, in some sense, “upside-down”, as the left-wing parties draw lines along ethnicity and anti-communist sentiment, while the right-wing parties seek dialogue with the socialist neighbour across the Strait - in direct opposition to the pattern listed above.
TAI Score: Degree 4. Tensions over the Taiwan Strait hold potential to turn into a conflict far greater than a local scuffle. The US would certainly get involved, as well as Japan, with a possibility for South Korea and the Philippines to jump in as well. International economics and supply lines would be devastatingly affected. The situation undoubtedly requires constant monitoring.
The USSR’s (Almost) Civil Wars
The Soviet Union was, for all intents and purposes, established through a civil war. In 1922, the Bolsheviks seized the far eastern port of Vladivostok (near Japan) before launching a campaign throughout the rest of the world’s largest country to root out all opposition. In the decades that followed - particularly the earlier ones under Stalin - the USSR was an extremely stable country, banning not only opposition parties but also trade unions, the Orthodox Church, and any other organisation with the capability to supersede the Communist Party’s authority.
But most people don’t realise the Soviet Union nearly ended in not one, but two, civil wars as well - despite hostilities flaring as recently as the 1990s.
Source: Associated Press
Before the Union collapsed in 1991, the country was in dire straits. Then-chairman Mikhail Gorbachev attempted to address serious internal issues (stagnation, supply shortages, and corruption) through a series of reforms. These reforms were, however, far more wide-reaching and devastating to the communist system, leading to a rapid (roughly two years) collapse in the country’s ability to project power into eastern Europe and Central Asia. Nationalism -which changed people’s self perception from “Soviet” to “Russian” - brought down the Soviet Union in Moscow soon after.
On August 18th, however, a group of hardline communists made an enormous gamble, placing Gorbachev under house arrest in Crimea, and sending tanks towards the parliament building (perhaps ironically named the White House). However, between defiance from protestors and a lack of support from almost everyone imaginable - the military, broader political forces, and external powers including the US - the coup never fully materialised, and the leaders were arrested only days later. Regardless, the USSR had been vastly weakened - partially by the attempted coup - and Gorbachev had little choice but to resign.
History outdid itself two years later.
Source: National Security Archive
Russia became an “independent” country (despite de facto leading the USSR previously), one of its key reforms was the election of a president independent of its elected parliament to take over from Gorbachev: Boris Yeltsin. To say Yeltsin disliked Parliament is to say the very least - in fact, he openly stated to his German counterpart Helmut Kohl that it was “full of fascists”. In an attempt to shut them out, Yeltsin slowly attempted to consolidate power, before an attempt to impeach him broke out in 1993 - twice, failing both times.
In response, Yeltsin ordered tanks to, once again, descend on government buildings. Lawmakers were swiftly arrested, and Yeltsin was able to rule by decree for six years. While democracy in Russia had failed, largely self-serving and wholly un-cooperative members of Parliament were removed. When Yeltsin resigned over accusations of corruption, he was able to hand off power to a man that instantly protected him: Vladimir Putin.
The Country Without Any Land
The smallest country in the world is the Vatican City, boasting just 0.5 square kilometres (0.2 square miles) in size and a permanent population of just 453 people. Despite its size, it has diplomatic relations with nearly every country and international organisations, as at least an observer, and an incredible amount of influence through the Catholic Church in countries ranging from Brazil to Italy to the Philippines - especially considering the country’s size. In fact, it’s amazing to think that the world’s 1.4 billion Catholics defer to a piece of land that less than 500 people live in full-time.
But the Vatican technically isn’t the smallest sovereign entity in the world. In fact, it technically isn’t even the smallest sovereign entity in Catholicism.
I’ve been intentionally careful with my words there, since the Sovereign Order of Malta - not to be confused with Malta - isn’t a country per se, but rather a humanitarian organisation with origins in the 11th century, a papal endorsement, and nearly 120,000 personnel. It’s so large that it has formal diplomatic relations with 113 countries (all of which are listed here), as well as permanent observer status at the UN, European Union, African Union, and numerous other regional blocs - despite not formally owning any territory.
So what does it actually do?
As the oldest medical mission in the world, the Sovereign Order currently works in a humanitarian capacity for refugees, disaster victims, medical care, and social services throughout the world. They even have a wing dedicated to elderly, palliative, and dementia care, and run soup kitchens in areas of economic crisis. At a diplomatic level, they have even imported emergency medical materials and served as mediators in raging conflicts.
Interested in working for them? They accept volunteers - and currently boast 95,000 of them - but anything beyond that gets a little tricky. Becoming a member requires an invitation from an existing member, a history in service to the poor, approval by an executive committee, a year of preparation and mentorship, and being a Roman Catholic.
The Strange Side of Digital Maps
Google Maps is one of the most useful apps a person can use. From navigating one’s way between two points, to identifying the geography of a conflict’s landscape, the system is an incredible tool to have in your back pocket. Google Earth is even more powerful - with a greater level of tools and details available to people who know how to use them - and yet, it remains a free programme that only requires a ten-minute download.
In some ways, it’s a little too powerful - and its satellites have uncovered some downright odd things before. Coordinates for all of the sites can be copy/pasted into Google Maps or Google Earth if you’re curious to see them yourself!
Jordan’s Wheels (Coordinates: 31.029° N, 37.641° E)
Located on the Saudi-Jordanian border, observers on the ground have described these wheel-and-spoke structures (of which there number as many as one thousand) as looking no different from a pile of stones - so much so, that they weren’t considered anomalous until pilots in the 1920s remarked that they look like wheels from the air. Bedouin tribes have referred to them simply as “the works of old men”, indicating a lack of knowledge by both locals and foreign archaeologists. What has been determined is that some - but not all - of the wheels seem to be aligned with the sun, particularly on the summer and winter solstices, signifying a possible calendar system akin to that of Stonehenge. Much like Stonehenge, however, the Wheels’ exact purpose is likely to remain shrouded in mystery for quite some time.
Nagoro, Japan (Coordinates: 33.8444° N, 134.1559° E)
Nagoro isn’t that different from any other town. Google Street View doesn’t show anything odd - the buildings, streets, and signs are all real. You can see people performing the same tasks you’d see anywhere else in rural Japan: riding bikes, doing farm work, and sitting in classrooms. The only issue is that none of them are real - the Scarecrow Village is famous for having ten times more mannequins than people. Even more unusual is that the mannequins are so realistic, Google Street View automatically blurs their faces out - meaning the people in the thumbnail for the this story on the Featured Articles page are fake. The scarecrows were initially created by an artist who wanted to memorialise the village’s past, now fading as the local population dwindles due to declining birth rates and young people heading to the cities for jobs. 37 people remain in Nagoro, an especially small figure when you realise the area receives over 5000 tourists annually.
The Outback Triangle (-30.0457° N, 115.3463° E)
Out in the Australian desert, about 3 hours’ drive north of Perth, is a triangle of trees that looks to be almost intentionally planted that way. The curious thing is, it doesn’t appear to have been - though that may be the most normal thing about this area. Rumors have spread that the area has caused problems for aircraft computers and occasionally has lights at each end of the shape. If this sounds awfully familiar to the Bermuda Triangle, that may be because the Outback Triangle is located almost perfectly on the other end of the Earth, and matches closely to the Southern Triangle constellation that looks exactly like it.
TAI Score: Degree 0. Of the three stories listed above, none of them cause any threat to international security, politics, or society - even minor. At most, they do however remind us that despite all of our technology and capabilities, there are still some mysteries we can’t solve - even if we observe them using machinery launched into orbit.
Is the World Sick of Tourism?
It’s only a week until Christmas and already the streets of London are packed. It’s no surprise either - almost 20 million people visited the UK in just the first half of 2024 alone, equivalent to just under 30% of the country’s population. They are expected to spend about £33 billion, roughly 92% of what was spent in 2019, pre-pandemic, after adjusting for inflation. The steady influx of money to the UK is great for the economy, but unrealised gains by the hospitality are being left on the table - with the Mayor “open to the idea of” a tourist tax for visitors in hotels. Maybe the bigger issue at hand, however, is the effect of tourism on local communities - and London doesn’t quite have the greatest impact or the largest measures to combat it.
Looking around the globe - it definitely seems like overtourism is becoming more glaring of an issue, and some countries are responding accordingly.
Peru
In May 2024, officials declared a new, far stricter set of rules for visitors to the Incan citadel of Machu Picchu. Groups, which must be no more than ten people in size, have up to two hours to view the site with a mandatory tour guide. Only 500 people per day may begin a hike up the Inca Trail, with tickets only available from the Ministry of Culture’s box office. Although local protests have erupted in the past over the government monopolising ticket sales, there are no imminent plans to close the site.
Italy
The city of Venice in particular has made sweeping changes and restrictions to its laws about visitors. Tour groups are now limited to 25 people (with certain exceptions), tour guides are forbidden from using megaphones, cruise ships are banned from entering the city centre, and the construction of new hotels has been capped. The city also introduced an EUR 5 fee for day visitors, but critics claim it did little to curb tourism numbers.
Japan
The Japanese approach to dealing with the vast influx of foreign tourists is extremely diverse and creative. Mount Fuji alone has had fences erected in popular areas to stop tourists from trespassing on private property and blocking roads for photography. Fees and daily attendance limits have also been imposed on the mountain’s trails to cut down on knock-on effects like littering. But the greatest case study might be the roads in Gion, Kyoto’s ban on foreigners entirely. As the country’s origin point for geisha culture, the neighbourhood’s most famous streets became places where the women felt uncomfortable by overwhelming numbers of foreign photographers, and business and locals began struggling to coexist with visitors. A fine of JPY 10,000 (USD 65) is now levied on overseas visitors who attempt to travel down the streets.
Spain
A YouGov poll published in September 2024 indicated that half of all Spaniards interviewed stated issues with overtourism in their areas. Whatever the nationwide percentage is, it was high enough to spark anti-tourism protests earlier this year, starting in the Balearic Islands but slowly spreading to Barcelona, Seville, and San Sebastian on the mainland. According to a Basque civic organisation member, “What we’ve been seeing over the last eight or 10 years has been a huge acceleration of the process of ‘touristification’. All our city’s services have been put at the orders of the tourism industry.” . Barcelona has already started addressing the issue: cruise ships, and the construction of new hotels, are both banned in the city centre.
TAI Score: Degree 2. While it is highly unlikely that efforts to curb tourism and overcrowding will radically affect geopolitics, they could have direct impact on a national economy if poorly handled. Tourists should check ahead to make sure their destination of choice isn’t somewhere that suffers from this phenomenon, and should obey all regulations while overseas.
The World’s Longest Airstrikes
A map displays the flight range of Operation Black Buck.
The world’s longest direct commercial flight is from New York’s JFK to Singapore’s Changi Airport. It stretches over 15,000km (9500 miles) and takes nearly 19 hours to complete. Flying nonstop at time of writing this article will cost about £1150 (USD $1450) just for the one-way ticket.
The world’s longest airstrikes, however, are in a different league entirely. In fact, they’re not even the same metaphorical ball game.
Operation Black Buck, 1982
One of the longest bombing runs recorded took place during the Falklands War. The British RAF bomber took off from Ascension Island in the central Atlantic Ocean, refueling mid-flight with tanker jets flying alongside, before dropping 21 450kg bombs on Argentinian targets on the Port Stanley Airfield. The total round-trip flight time was just short of 16 hours, and although seven Black Buck missions were planned, only five of them were successfully performed.
2nd of February strikes, 2024
On February 2nd-5th 2024, two manned B-1 bombers took off from Dyess Air Force Base in Texas, USA, to launch 125 missiles at 85 strategic targets run by Iranian-backed militants in Syria. To get there in a single continuous flight, the bombers received aerial refueling twice, once over the UK and again over Cyprus, before launching the strikes for approximately 30 minutes, turning around, and doing the flight all over again.
Operation Enduring Freedom, 2001
Enduring Freedom’s refueling points are marked with red dots, with its return flight in yellow
“It took us less than 30 days to plan and launch a fully fledged air campaign against the Taliban and al-Qaeda”, according to Lt. Gen David Deptula. In the first few days of the campaign, the US did not have the infrastructure already in the Middle East to strike Afghanistan - but they didn’t need it. While troops and other materials reached the region, B-2 bombers took off from Missouri in the central USA, flying in a single mission to Afghanistan by refuelling over California, Hawaii, Guam, Malaysia, and the Maldives before bombing the Taliban and landing in Diego Garcia, a British RAF base in the Indian Ocean. The total flight time was 44 hours.
TAI Score: Degree 3. Although these airstrikes do not immensely shape the nature of conflicts, and are highly difficult to successfully achieve, this weakness may actually be their greatest threat as countries increasingly turn to super- and hyper-sonic missiles to achieve objectives - massively changing combat capabilities worldwide.
Prospera, Honduras
Every continent in the world has its financial hub. North America has New York City, East Asia has Hong Kong and Shanghai, Europe has London and Frankfurt, Africa has Casablanca, and South America has Sao Paulo.
Zaha Hadid-designed buildings overlook Prospera’s beach. Source: Zaha Hadid Architects
It’s not a continent, Central America’s financial capital has a bit more unusual of a story.
Prospera, Honduras, also known as Prospera ZEDE (Zone for Employment and Economic Development in Spanish), is located on an island about 80 kilometers north of the mainland. It is a for-profit, privately-owned city designed to be a haven for startups and those seeking to conduct business under a “government” where taxes are optional. The taxes that do exist are incredibly light: 5% for personal income, 1% for business income, 2.5% for sales, and 1% on land value. No other taxes exist, other than an annual fee to live there ($260 for Hondurans, $1300 for foreigners). Businesses can even choose a regulatory framework consisting of any combination of up to 36 countries, or even customise their own.
It’s definitely not without success: since its launch, Prospera’s site boasts that the city has been responsible for the creation of over 200 businesses, 950 jobs, USD $100 million invested, and nearly 2,000 residents from over 40 countries. Le Monde also reported on some of the stranger projects that go on here, including bleeding-edge cryptocurrency tech development, subdermal magnetic implants, and longevity gene therapy trials.
Honduran protestors want the zone brought under control. Source: El Faro
Perhaps unsurprisingly, Prospera’s investors include Silicon Valley giants such as Peter Thiel, Sam Altman, and Marc Andreessen who see it as a groundbreaking frontier for governance and economic development experimentation.
But the Honduran government wants it gone.
Prospera was allowed to be created by a conservative government that established Special Economic Zones to bring in foreign investment. But the current leftist administration wants to abolish them, stating that they are far more extreme in nature than those found in Singapore or the Cayman Islands. They’re widely unpopular among Hondurans too, but the company behind Prospera is suing the Honduran government, citing potential future losses in an investor-state settlement at a World Bank court.
If Prospera wins, it could bankrupt one of Latin America’s poorest countries.
TAI Score: Degree 2. While it’s highly unlikely that geopolitics will undergo any seismic shifts even is Prospera wins, the precedent it sets could be damaging to future resolutions over corporations taking advantage of cash-strapped countries that will attract anyone that promises investment and incoming money.
What If The US Declines?
Last week, SimpleNation looked at some of the key issues China is facing and speculated what would probably happen next if the country’s best days were discovered to be behind it. Through either a peaceful withdrawal and dialing back of foreign investment programmes, or a violent distraction to divert its population’s attention while securing valuable assets by force, we would definitely be aware of a hypothetical decline while it happened.
Now, it’s time to look at the other side of the question: what if the US declines?
On Sunday, November 24th 2024, The Telegraph published an opinion piece drawing parallels between Trump’s America and the fall of Rome. While the article itself is rather odd, exploring the idea through (of all things) the lens of the new Gladiator film, it does bring up a highly salient point: that the US is “dominated by a handful of patrician families” that seize power to stay out of the judicial system’s wrath while social movements seek to abandon foundational principles and commit “cultural suicide”.
So what happens if the era of American “exceptionalism” ends?
Status Quo, At All Costs
USAID projects assist with agricultural development in Pakistan. Source: USAID Archive
It’s unclear what this would look like for the simple reason that there’s no precedent for it. What it would probably indicate is a less peaceful situation in which the US becomes far more aggressive in key conflict hotspots: increased funding and active support for Israel, Taiwan, the Philippines, and Ukraine. Red lines would be possibly drawn and backed up by the US military itself. We would probably notice if this happened - the tricky part is determining where it would happen first.
There might also be ramped up spending for US-led international institutions. The World Bank and IMF, as well as the country’s own USAID, might see more soft power projection take place to influence countries and partners without resorting to violence. Truthfully, this is the best case scenario at this time. Knowing Trump however, it’s also probably the least likely scenario.
Conservative Isolationism
As of November 2024, this seems like the more likely candidate of the two. The incoming Trump administration is seeking ways to quickly wrap up the wars in Ukraine and Gaza, threatened trade wars on China to bring manufacturing back to the US, and even economic consequences for Canada and Mexico if the two countries don’t do more to address illegal immigration and drug trafficking.
In blue: countries that received US defence aid within the past two years. In yellow: countries that house US military bases. Striped: countries with US military bases, that receive defence aid within the past two years.
It’s possible that the US ends up partially sanctioning itself after a certain point, all in an effort to on-shore jobs and industries, leaving an economic vacuum behind.
That vacuum would almost certainly be seized upon by the US’ rivals. Russia would likely expand influence into Europe again through fossil fuel sales, and China’s Belt and Road would expand well beyond its current capacity. Countries in Europe and Asia that currently rely on US defence support would be forced to follow along with the administration’s red lines, most likely spending a pre-determined amount of their own GDP on self-defence first. Other countries would likely turn to their regional powers - Bangladesh to India, Uruguay to Brazil, and the Philippines to Japan or Indonesia. It might make America more self-preserving and wealthy - but the rest of the world would need many years, at least, to adjust.
TAI Score: Degree 4. Depending on the methods, the outcome of a declining US could range anywhere from a peaceful transition to a new hegemon (probably China) to a complete and utter disaster. The country’s deep, deep entrenchment in global society and international economics means that there would very likely be a less-than-smooth decline for nearly every country on Earth. Even the US’ rivals would feel the impact financially, if not in every other sector of society as well.
What if China Declines?
When China started publishing economic figures in the early- and mid-1990s, the statistics were astounding. Peter Nolan, an economic analyst, wrote that by 2001, the total amount of foreign investment into China was USD $150 billion higher than the amount invested into the entirety of Latin America and the Caribbean combined. It’s no wonder the Chinese Communist Party doesn’t have many internal threats: the GDP per capita in China: in one generation, the average GDP per capita has gone up by almost 18,000% from USD $162 to USD $12,600.
Today’s picture in 2024 is still extremely impressive, with a projected economic growth of 5% (a higher projection than any country in Europe in 2024). And that’s considered to be a slowed down growth rate by Chinese standards - In 2007, it was reportedly as high as 14%. But the world’s second largest economy is beginning to face two issues. I already mentioned the economy slowing down: the other issue is aging demographics which, to be fair, is also happening throughout the developed world.
So what happens if China finds itself in an increasingly disadvantageous position? Only time will tell, but probably one of two, diametrically opposed, things:
Peaceful Withdrawal
The Altynkol rail hub in Kazakhstan was built with Chinese money as part of the Belt and Road. Source: CGTN
Right now, China sends an astonishing amount of money overseas. In one decade since its launch, the country’s foreign investment Belt and Road Initiative has sent over USD $1 trillion abroad. These infrastructure projects exist in every continent, ranging from Latin America, to Europe, to Africa, Central Asia, and Southeast Asia. Chinese state media announced in 2023 that there were nearly 500 Confucius Institute offices in 160 countries promoting Chinese cultural and language exchange, including in the United States. The BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) organisation has greatly appealed to the Global South, and organisations like the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) rival that of its counterpart, the US-led IMF.
But all of these projects cost money - and if the money dries up, their survival is put in serious jeopardy.
China routinely talks about the noble goal of “peaceful coexistence”. Considering the country has not been in a conflict since the late 1970s, it’s definitely something that Beijing appears to sincerely strive for. Thus, it’s entirely possible to believe that this will continue to be true if China is not able to fully overcome its current challenges. The greater global community might struggle - BRICS could lose a keystone founding member, dozens of countries could lose access to vital investment, and world economies may react negatively - but all of it would be better than a non-peaceful outcome. There may still be some assertiveness in Asia-Pacific, particularly in areas like the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea, but the threat of Sino-US conflict would subside.
Violent Distraction
A political cartoon depicts China’s extensive claims in the South China Sea. Source: Paresh Nath
Sometimes, in order to draw attention away from domestic strife, autocratic countries will lash out against their neighbours. A prime example of this occurred in 1982 when Argentina’s junta invaded the Falkland Islands to distract the population away from a poor economic standing and reignite nationalist sentiment amid general civil unrest.
In the West, fears simmer that China could do the same.
It’s impossible to predict where, but we can certainly narrow it down - the two most likely candidates are the South China Sea, and Taiwan Strait. Neither of these should be much of a surprise: the news frequently reports on incidents surrounding both. Considering the astonishing amount of trade and financial flows that come from East Asia, the outcome of either one would be disastrous - especially when compounded with the situations in Ukraine and the Middle East.
Another possible contender would be somewhere along the Belt and Road Initiative, where critical resources are under threat by local conflicts. This could include oil pipelines in Pakistan or Myanmar, or infrastructure investments throughout the Sahel via China’s naval base in Djibouti.
It might not even be direct - it could mean seeking to secure its position via proxy - such as increasing support for Russia in Ukraine, North Korea along the 38th Parallel, or the junta in Myanmar - to guarantee a stance of favourable security.
Whatever happens (assuming anything happens), we should hope for the best, but prepare for the worst by watching, waiting, and adapting to it before it happens. The world should seek the softest possible landing - and probably hope that China doesn’t decline at all.
TAI Score: Degree 4. While there’s no guarantee that China will decline - nor are there signs of it happening anytime soon - even the best case scenario could result in developmental downturn in the Global South, which may lead to a rise in instability and conflict in a much more difficult-to-contain landscape.
