Is the World Sick of Tourism?
It’s only a week until Christmas and already the streets of London are packed. It’s no surprise either - almost 20 million people visited the UK in just the first half of 2024 alone, equivalent to just under 30% of the country’s population. They are expected to spend about £33 billion, roughly 92% of what was spent in 2019, pre-pandemic, after adjusting for inflation. The steady influx of money to the UK is great for the economy, but unrealised gains by the hospitality are being left on the table - with the Mayor “open to the idea of” a tourist tax for visitors in hotels. Maybe the bigger issue at hand, however, is the effect of tourism on local communities - and London doesn’t quite have the greatest impact or the largest measures to combat it.
Looking around the globe - it definitely seems like overtourism is becoming more glaring of an issue, and some countries are responding accordingly.
Peru
In May 2024, officials declared a new, far stricter set of rules for visitors to the Incan citadel of Machu Picchu. Groups, which must be no more than ten people in size, have up to two hours to view the site with a mandatory tour guide. Only 500 people per day may begin a hike up the Inca Trail, with tickets only available from the Ministry of Culture’s box office. Although local protests have erupted in the past over the government monopolising ticket sales, there are no imminent plans to close the site.
Italy
The city of Venice in particular has made sweeping changes and restrictions to its laws about visitors. Tour groups are now limited to 25 people (with certain exceptions), tour guides are forbidden from using megaphones, cruise ships are banned from entering the city centre, and the construction of new hotels has been capped. The city also introduced an EUR 5 fee for day visitors, but critics claim it did little to curb tourism numbers.
Japan
The Japanese approach to dealing with the vast influx of foreign tourists is extremely diverse and creative. Mount Fuji alone has had fences erected in popular areas to stop tourists from trespassing on private property and blocking roads for photography. Fees and daily attendance limits have also been imposed on the mountain’s trails to cut down on knock-on effects like littering. But the greatest case study might be the roads in Gion, Kyoto’s ban on foreigners entirely. As the country’s origin point for geisha culture, the neighbourhood’s most famous streets became places where the women felt uncomfortable by overwhelming numbers of foreign photographers, and business and locals began struggling to coexist with visitors. A fine of JPY 10,000 (USD 65) is now levied on overseas visitors who attempt to travel down the streets.
Spain
A YouGov poll published in September 2024 indicated that half of all Spaniards interviewed stated issues with overtourism in their areas. Whatever the nationwide percentage is, it was high enough to spark anti-tourism protests earlier this year, starting in the Balearic Islands but slowly spreading to Barcelona, Seville, and San Sebastian on the mainland. According to a Basque civic organisation member, “What we’ve been seeing over the last eight or 10 years has been a huge acceleration of the process of ‘touristification’. All our city’s services have been put at the orders of the tourism industry.” . Barcelona has already started addressing the issue: cruise ships, and the construction of new hotels, are both banned in the city centre.
TAI Score: Degree 2. While it is highly unlikely that efforts to curb tourism and overcrowding will radically affect geopolitics, they could have direct impact on a national economy if poorly handled. Tourists should check ahead to make sure their destination of choice isn’t somewhere that suffers from this phenomenon, and should obey all regulations while overseas.
The World’s Longest Airstrikes
A map displays the flight range of Operation Black Buck.
The world’s longest direct commercial flight is from New York’s JFK to Singapore’s Changi Airport. It stretches over 15,000km (9500 miles) and takes nearly 19 hours to complete. Flying nonstop at time of writing this article will cost about £1150 (USD $1450) just for the one-way ticket.
The world’s longest airstrikes, however, are in a different league entirely. In fact, they’re not even the same metaphorical ball game.
Operation Black Buck, 1982
One of the longest bombing runs recorded took place during the Falklands War. The British RAF bomber took off from Ascension Island in the central Atlantic Ocean, refueling mid-flight with tanker jets flying alongside, before dropping 21 450kg bombs on Argentinian targets on the Port Stanley Airfield. The total round-trip flight time was just short of 16 hours, and although seven Black Buck missions were planned, only five of them were successfully performed.
2nd of February strikes, 2024
On February 2nd-5th 2024, two manned B-1 bombers took off from Dyess Air Force Base in Texas, USA, to launch 125 missiles at 85 strategic targets run by Iranian-backed militants in Syria. To get there in a single continuous flight, the bombers received aerial refueling twice, once over the UK and again over Cyprus, before launching the strikes for approximately 30 minutes, turning around, and doing the flight all over again.
Operation Enduring Freedom, 2001
Enduring Freedom’s refueling points are marked with red dots, with its return flight in yellow
“It took us less than 30 days to plan and launch a fully fledged air campaign against the Taliban and al-Qaeda”, according to Lt. Gen David Deptula. In the first few days of the campaign, the US did not have the infrastructure already in the Middle East to strike Afghanistan - but they didn’t need it. While troops and other materials reached the region, B-2 bombers took off from Missouri in the central USA, flying in a single mission to Afghanistan by refuelling over California, Hawaii, Guam, Malaysia, and the Maldives before bombing the Taliban and landing in Diego Garcia, a British RAF base in the Indian Ocean. The total flight time was 44 hours.
TAI Score: Degree 3. Although these airstrikes do not immensely shape the nature of conflicts, and are highly difficult to successfully achieve, this weakness may actually be their greatest threat as countries increasingly turn to super- and hyper-sonic missiles to achieve objectives - massively changing combat capabilities worldwide.
Prospera, Honduras
Every continent in the world has its financial hub. North America has New York City, East Asia has Hong Kong and Shanghai, Europe has London and Frankfurt, Africa has Casablanca, and South America has Sao Paulo.
Zaha Hadid-designed buildings overlook Prospera’s beach. Source: Zaha Hadid Architects
It’s not a continent, Central America’s financial capital has a bit more unusual of a story.
Prospera, Honduras, also known as Prospera ZEDE (Zone for Employment and Economic Development in Spanish), is located on an island about 80 kilometers north of the mainland. It is a for-profit, privately-owned city designed to be a haven for startups and those seeking to conduct business under a “government” where taxes are optional. The taxes that do exist are incredibly light: 5% for personal income, 1% for business income, 2.5% for sales, and 1% on land value. No other taxes exist, other than an annual fee to live there ($260 for Hondurans, $1300 for foreigners). Businesses can even choose a regulatory framework consisting of any combination of up to 36 countries, or even customise their own.
It’s definitely not without success: since its launch, Prospera’s site boasts that the city has been responsible for the creation of over 200 businesses, 950 jobs, USD $100 million invested, and nearly 2,000 residents from over 40 countries. Le Monde also reported on some of the stranger projects that go on here, including bleeding-edge cryptocurrency tech development, subdermal magnetic implants, and longevity gene therapy trials.
Honduran protestors want the zone brought under control. Source: El Faro
Perhaps unsurprisingly, Prospera’s investors include Silicon Valley giants such as Peter Thiel, Sam Altman, and Marc Andreessen who see it as a groundbreaking frontier for governance and economic development experimentation.
But the Honduran government wants it gone.
Prospera was allowed to be created by a conservative government that established Special Economic Zones to bring in foreign investment. But the current leftist administration wants to abolish them, stating that they are far more extreme in nature than those found in Singapore or the Cayman Islands. They’re widely unpopular among Hondurans too, but the company behind Prospera is suing the Honduran government, citing potential future losses in an investor-state settlement at a World Bank court.
If Prospera wins, it could bankrupt one of Latin America’s poorest countries.
TAI Score: Degree 2. While it’s highly unlikely that geopolitics will undergo any seismic shifts even is Prospera wins, the precedent it sets could be damaging to future resolutions over corporations taking advantage of cash-strapped countries that will attract anyone that promises investment and incoming money.
What If The US Declines?
Last week, SimpleNation looked at some of the key issues China is facing and speculated what would probably happen next if the country’s best days were discovered to be behind it. Through either a peaceful withdrawal and dialing back of foreign investment programmes, or a violent distraction to divert its population’s attention while securing valuable assets by force, we would definitely be aware of a hypothetical decline while it happened.
Now, it’s time to look at the other side of the question: what if the US declines?
On Sunday, November 24th 2024, The Telegraph published an opinion piece drawing parallels between Trump’s America and the fall of Rome. While the article itself is rather odd, exploring the idea through (of all things) the lens of the new Gladiator film, it does bring up a highly salient point: that the US is “dominated by a handful of patrician families” that seize power to stay out of the judicial system’s wrath while social movements seek to abandon foundational principles and commit “cultural suicide”.
So what happens if the era of American “exceptionalism” ends?
Status Quo, At All Costs
USAID projects assist with agricultural development in Pakistan. Source: USAID Archive
It’s unclear what this would look like for the simple reason that there’s no precedent for it. What it would probably indicate is a less peaceful situation in which the US becomes far more aggressive in key conflict hotspots: increased funding and active support for Israel, Taiwan, the Philippines, and Ukraine. Red lines would be possibly drawn and backed up by the US military itself. We would probably notice if this happened - the tricky part is determining where it would happen first.
There might also be ramped up spending for US-led international institutions. The World Bank and IMF, as well as the country’s own USAID, might see more soft power projection take place to influence countries and partners without resorting to violence. Truthfully, this is the best case scenario at this time. Knowing Trump however, it’s also probably the least likely scenario.
Conservative Isolationism
As of November 2024, this seems like the more likely candidate of the two. The incoming Trump administration is seeking ways to quickly wrap up the wars in Ukraine and Gaza, threatened trade wars on China to bring manufacturing back to the US, and even economic consequences for Canada and Mexico if the two countries don’t do more to address illegal immigration and drug trafficking.
In blue: countries that received US defence aid within the past two years. In yellow: countries that house US military bases. Striped: countries with US military bases, that receive defence aid within the past two years.
It’s possible that the US ends up partially sanctioning itself after a certain point, all in an effort to on-shore jobs and industries, leaving an economic vacuum behind.
That vacuum would almost certainly be seized upon by the US’ rivals. Russia would likely expand influence into Europe again through fossil fuel sales, and China’s Belt and Road would expand well beyond its current capacity. Countries in Europe and Asia that currently rely on US defence support would be forced to follow along with the administration’s red lines, most likely spending a pre-determined amount of their own GDP on self-defence first. Other countries would likely turn to their regional powers - Bangladesh to India, Uruguay to Brazil, and the Philippines to Japan or Indonesia. It might make America more self-preserving and wealthy - but the rest of the world would need many years, at least, to adjust.
TAI Score: Degree 4. Depending on the methods, the outcome of a declining US could range anywhere from a peaceful transition to a new hegemon (probably China) to a complete and utter disaster. The country’s deep, deep entrenchment in global society and international economics means that there would very likely be a less-than-smooth decline for nearly every country on Earth. Even the US’ rivals would feel the impact financially, if not in every other sector of society as well.
What if China Declines?
When China started publishing economic figures in the early- and mid-1990s, the statistics were astounding. Peter Nolan, an economic analyst, wrote that by 2001, the total amount of foreign investment into China was USD $150 billion higher than the amount invested into the entirety of Latin America and the Caribbean combined. It’s no wonder the Chinese Communist Party doesn’t have many internal threats: the GDP per capita in China: in one generation, the average GDP per capita has gone up by almost 18,000% from USD $162 to USD $12,600.
Today’s picture in 2024 is still extremely impressive, with a projected economic growth of 5% (a higher projection than any country in Europe in 2024). And that’s considered to be a slowed down growth rate by Chinese standards - In 2007, it was reportedly as high as 14%. But the world’s second largest economy is beginning to face two issues. I already mentioned the economy slowing down: the other issue is aging demographics which, to be fair, is also happening throughout the developed world.
So what happens if China finds itself in an increasingly disadvantageous position? Only time will tell, but probably one of two, diametrically opposed, things:
Peaceful Withdrawal
The Altynkol rail hub in Kazakhstan was built with Chinese money as part of the Belt and Road. Source: CGTN
Right now, China sends an astonishing amount of money overseas. In one decade since its launch, the country’s foreign investment Belt and Road Initiative has sent over USD $1 trillion abroad. These infrastructure projects exist in every continent, ranging from Latin America, to Europe, to Africa, Central Asia, and Southeast Asia. Chinese state media announced in 2023 that there were nearly 500 Confucius Institute offices in 160 countries promoting Chinese cultural and language exchange, including in the United States. The BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) organisation has greatly appealed to the Global South, and organisations like the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) rival that of its counterpart, the US-led IMF.
But all of these projects cost money - and if the money dries up, their survival is put in serious jeopardy.
China routinely talks about the noble goal of “peaceful coexistence”. Considering the country has not been in a conflict since the late 1970s, it’s definitely something that Beijing appears to sincerely strive for. Thus, it’s entirely possible to believe that this will continue to be true if China is not able to fully overcome its current challenges. The greater global community might struggle - BRICS could lose a keystone founding member, dozens of countries could lose access to vital investment, and world economies may react negatively - but all of it would be better than a non-peaceful outcome. There may still be some assertiveness in Asia-Pacific, particularly in areas like the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea, but the threat of Sino-US conflict would subside.
Violent Distraction
A political cartoon depicts China’s extensive claims in the South China Sea. Source: Paresh Nath
Sometimes, in order to draw attention away from domestic strife, autocratic countries will lash out against their neighbours. A prime example of this occurred in 1982 when Argentina’s junta invaded the Falkland Islands to distract the population away from a poor economic standing and reignite nationalist sentiment amid general civil unrest.
In the West, fears simmer that China could do the same.
It’s impossible to predict where, but we can certainly narrow it down - the two most likely candidates are the South China Sea, and Taiwan Strait. Neither of these should be much of a surprise: the news frequently reports on incidents surrounding both. Considering the astonishing amount of trade and financial flows that come from East Asia, the outcome of either one would be disastrous - especially when compounded with the situations in Ukraine and the Middle East.
Another possible contender would be somewhere along the Belt and Road Initiative, where critical resources are under threat by local conflicts. This could include oil pipelines in Pakistan or Myanmar, or infrastructure investments throughout the Sahel via China’s naval base in Djibouti.
It might not even be direct - it could mean seeking to secure its position via proxy - such as increasing support for Russia in Ukraine, North Korea along the 38th Parallel, or the junta in Myanmar - to guarantee a stance of favourable security.
Whatever happens (assuming anything happens), we should hope for the best, but prepare for the worst by watching, waiting, and adapting to it before it happens. The world should seek the softest possible landing - and probably hope that China doesn’t decline at all.
TAI Score: Degree 4. While there’s no guarantee that China will decline - nor are there signs of it happening anytime soon - even the best case scenario could result in developmental downturn in the Global South, which may lead to a rise in instability and conflict in a much more difficult-to-contain landscape.
Most Modern Politicians are Maniacs
This article is not an endorsement or criticism of any politician, or their actions, anywhere. Rather, this article is meant to provide a bit of perspective.
It’s probably safe to assume that by the time you read this, you’re aware of the outcome of the 2024 US presidential election. Against almost all conceivable odds, Donald Trump will be returning to the White House in 2025. It’s probably also safe to assume that you’re aware he’s far from being a conventional president, not least of all because he completely lacked a career in politics before his first term began in 2017.
However, populist presidents around the world, also in some rather major countries, have done some spectacularly evil things that Trump never even attempted. Below is a showcasing of how, and why, most modern politicians around the world are more than a bit crazy.
Prabowo Subianto
Prabowo Subianto of Indonesia. Source: Ministry of State Secretariat
Indonesia’s eighth president was inaugurated on the 20th of October in a lavish display in front of a palace in Jakarta. As a frontrunner in his election campaign from February 2024, Subianto enjoyed the endorsement of then-president Joko Widodo, whose son is serving as vice president under Subianto in a move that has certainly raised more than a few eyebrows.
What’s closer to the centre of the spotlight, however, are Subianto’s alleged war crimes, which include the abduction and torture of democracy activists in the 1990s (13 remain missing), as well as the committing of “atrocities” against separatist forces in East Timor and West Papua. The lack of proper education over the challenging years prior to 1994 in Indonesia, however, signify that many young people are either not aware of, or uninterested in, Subianto’s violent past.
Jair Bolsonaro
The former president of Brazil is probably the most directly comparable to Donald Trump. Bolsonaro’s authoritarian approach to the COVID-19 pandemic illustrated his desire to be a dictator in the midst of crisis. This included the outright objection to the use of WHO-approved vaccines, instead preferring questionable cures with minimal (if any) scientific backing, became most noticeable when Bolsonaro rejected US-manufactured vaccines for over seven months while a far less effective and more expensive vaccine produced by a contact of Bolsonaro’s was quickly cleared for approval.
Bolsonaro’s devastation of the Amazon rainforest is equally well-documented. At a UN conference in New York, he pushed back against the idea that the rainforest was a “heritage of humanity”, instead declaring that they belonged to the Brazilian people, allowing him to turn a blind eye while loggers and large-scale livestock ranchers cut down the forest for economic gain.
Recep Tayyip Erdogan
Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey. Source: Reuters
Few groups are free from persecution in Erdogan’s Turkey. Since he took office 18 years ago, ethnic Kurds, women, LGBT people, and democratic institutions have all fallen within his crosshairs. In 2019 alone, more than 36,000 people faced criminal investigations for criticising Erdogan online, with nearly 9600 being sent to prison for doing so.
Corruption in Turkey under Erdogan has also found a somewhat unexpected home: New York. Numerous contributions to city and state politicians have been traced back to groups associated with Erdogan, including more than $40,000 from just 16 people donated to a single politician from New York in the US House of Representatives. The mayor of New York City has also been indicted over allegations of accepting bribes from Turkish officials.
Rodrigo Duterte
Arguably the most outrageous character on this list, Duterte is notorious from his time as mayor of Davao and president of The Philippines. The former president became infamous from his “war on drugs” in the Philippines, which authorised vigilante groups and security forces to kill suspected drug users and dealers on sight - a widely alleged crime against humanity. Many of the police officers responsible for these killings - approximately 30,000 of which took place to date - further admitted to falsifying data to justify murders.
In fact, in October 2024, Duterte admitted to personally maintaining death squads while mayor of Davao to track down and kill drug users and dealers. These groups, consisting largely of local gangsters and crooked police officers, were encouraged by Duterte to provoke targets into violence before killing them in manufactured self-defence. Throughout his questioning, Duterte remained defiant, stating in reference to the drug cartels that “I hate drugs, make no mistake about it. If given another chance, I’ll wipe all of you.”.
It’s pretty clear then, that while Donald Trump is no saint - he’s certainly not alone in this regard and, if anything, is fairly normal by international standards.
TAI Score: Degree 4. Populist leaders are undeniably domestic threats, even if nominated for their position by popular vote. In the case of Turkey and Indonesia, these leaders have very real potential to cause diplomatic incidents and cross-border conflicts. Within their own countries, they can often serve to erode democratic norms and crack down on minority groups before consolidating their positions to rule for far longer than their political systems intend.
Saudi In Transition
SimpleNation was blessed with the opportunity to sit down with a friend of the website and ask her questions about how life in Saudi Arabia has changed over the past decade. Yasmeen “Yas” Alfaris very kindly sat down with me to talk about how life is for young people in the Kingdom today, and what may be next for one of the most important countries in the Middle East.
What’s the biggest misconception about life in KSA? What do you wish was more widely known or understood?
That it’s dangerous or not safe for Western people, who run the risk of being discriminated against by locals, or that women are openly mistreated. Sometimes bloggers/influencers are asked if they’re crazy for going to the Middle East, without realising that Saudi has world-class hospitality, and that Riyadh is as safe as any Western city.
What has/have been the greatest change(s) to social or cultural life for average people in KSA over the last 10-15 years?
I would say treatment of and opportunities for women has improved a lot. The government is trying to bring society to a more equal standing between the genders, especially in employment and labour. The country is also becoming more relaxed with rules surrounding social interactions between the two - women are allowed to be more casual and friendly if working in a cafe, for example. People are beginning to get used to it too. By contrast, some men in past generations didn’t even know what their wives looked like before their wedding day. There’s still a long way to go but things are trending in a more relaxed direction.
How has life changed for minority groups, such as Shi’a Muslims?
It’s changed a lot. Ten to fifteen years ago, discrimination against Shi’as was rife, and getting a job placement or university spot for Shi’as was very difficult. People are much more tolerant and show curiosity more than anything nowadays, and the labour market is much more meritocracy-based. But Shi’a have always been part of Saudi culture and society, and cases of discrimination are individual acts - not mob violence.
What changes might still be wanted or needed, and what might be coming next (if anything)?
We’re changing so many things - there’s more tourists, women can drive and play sports, but some people are not keeping up with it all. The answer I had in my head for changes “needed” is for the perception of these changes to be more universal nationwide. I recently felt unsafe at a music festival in Saudi because I didn’t know how the locals in that particular region would perceive us for not dressing or acting modestly. Some people, especially older generations, just aren’t used to seeing the diversity in thought and actions.
Do you generally feel that life in Saudi has improved for people over the past 10-15 years? Do others feel the same way?
Absolutely, and the majority definitely feel the same way. Universities are improving, social life is a little more free, leisure opportunities are growing, and public safety is constantly getting better. Job opportunities have improved for the average Saudi too.
Is there anything else that hasn’t been mentioned that you’d like to speak about?
Don’t judge a book by its cover. Come visit Saudi and interact with the locals and see if your opinions are the same afterwards!
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Many thanks to Yasmeen Alfaris for her help with this article!
The 38-Minute War
Wars are almost never brief. One of the most popular sayings from the First World War’s initial periods was that the war would be “over by Christmas” before stretching on for four grueling years. Goodness knows what was said at the outbreak of the Hundred Years’ War (which actually lasted for 116 years). To take a more modern example, the Korean War began in 1950 and technically has yet to formally end, while the Syrian civil war will enter its 14th year in March 2025.
But there’s one war (if you can even call it that) that ended in under an hour: The Anglo-Zanzibar War, also known as The 38-Minute War.
The Zanzibar Palace shortly before the outbreak of conflict. Source: HistoricUK
The conflict’s origins exist in the splitting up of colonial Africa between European powers, specifically the 1896 ceding of Tanzania to Germany while Zanzibar remained a protectorate of the British Empire. The sultan of Zanzibar, Hamad bin Thuwaini, was happy to rule on behalf of the British, but died under mysterious circumstances - likely poisoned by his cousin, Khalid bin Bargash, who quickly took control of the throne and declared himself sultan. Viewed by the British as overly independent and dismissive of imperial rule, Khalid was given one hour to surrender and leave the palace. Upon refusing, Khalid amassed a force of 2800 soldiers, civilians, and guards to defend the palace.
The proceeding British artillery bombardment, combined with an incursion by Royal Marines and hired Zanzibari mercenaries, defeated the force of 2800 so quickly that newspapers did not even have time to cover the event, merely reporting that “It took rather less than an hour for Her Majesty’s warships to reduce the palace to ashes. The affair was briskly carried out, and obviously with relish.”. Zanzibar’s only warship, the HHS Glasgow, was a luxury yacht with a single cannon installed, and was quickly sank by the Royal Navy. While 500 people from Khalid’s force were killed, the British suffered only one injury - and zero deaths. Upon victory, the British installed Hamud bin Muhammad, a pro-British Omani, to the throne. Khalid spent the rest of his life in exile throughout various locations, before returning to Mombasa and dying in 1927.
British Royal Marines pose next to a captured cannon. Source: TheArchive
From start to finish, the war lasted less than 45 minutes, and is the shortest war in history.
TAI Score: Degree 0. The war was incredibly decisive and ended in the installation of a pro-British sultan. Today, Zanzibar is a semi-autonomous region in the sovereign nation of Tanzania.
Will Myanmar Collapse?
On August 1st, 2022, SimpleNation published an article asking why democracy has failed in Myanmar so many times.
The short answer is that in a moment of desperation immediately after securing independence from the British, the military (or Tatmadaw) seized the reins of power to quickly put down a series of ethnic rebellions and sort out economic turmoil without needing to slowly deliberate through parliamentary proceedings. The problem is, the Tatmadaw never really gave up power - and for many years, the largest opposition party (the USDP) was openly aligned with the military. So, when their mass unpopularity in several consecutive elections made it easy for the pro-democracy party to erode their power, the military quite simply overthrew them on February 1st, 2021. Myanmar has been embroiled in a horrific civil war ever since.
Whether or not Myanmar can survive as a single country is open to speculation. Throughout the more remote parts of the country, the junta government is rapidly losing control of entire provinces - the two most significant (but by no means only) of which are listed below.
Rakhine state
Despite looking like a professional military, the Arakan Army is an anti-junta rebel force. Source: The Irrawaddy.
Located in the country’s southwest, Rakhine is notorious for the military’s mass killings of ethnic Rohingyas prior to the 2021 coup. Many of these communities have fled to neighbouring Bangladesh where they live in refugee camps around Cox’s Bazar. The Arakan Army, Rakhine’s most powerful rebel group, have secured vast swaths of land, seizing military bases, civilian airports, and entire towns. In fact, the rebel group is so secured in much of the province, they are able to run an entire standardised education system using schools in towns captured from the Tatmadaw. Many in Rakhine state contend, however, that tactics used by the Arakan Army are no less brutal than the Tatmadaw’s, which will cause issues if the now-autonomous region wants to gain international recognition - and work with countries like India and Bangladesh to begin trade, diplomacy, and the repatriation of nearly 1 million refugees.
Kachin state
Ground-level photography shows a China-Myanmar border crossing in Kachin state. Source: Khin Kyaw Nyo
The Kachin Independence Army (KIA), the largest rebel group in Kachin state to the country’s far north, initially remained neutral following the coup. In fact, it took a full month before fighting resumed, when the Tatmadaw attacked a KIA base. The KIA is far older than the 2021 coup, however, and actually dates back to the 1960s, when the country’s first coup witnessed a situation extremely similar to the one from three years ago.
By the end of 2021, the KIA had become aligned with other rebel groups due to a united desire to see the Tatmadaw overthrown. The KIA has especially drawn attention due to its seizure of military bases in the northern Kachin and Shan states, where rare earth materials are often extracted. This has drawn significant attention from China, with whom Kachin state shares a border, across which a significant amount of trade is conducted.
Will Myanmar collapse?
Probably not. After fighting together against the military, many of these rebel groups have formed agreements, such as the Three Brothers Alliance, and made an entire parallel shadow government that exists in direct opposition to the Tatmadaw. The framework for a new, democratic Myanmar certainly exists internally.
Externally, no other country wants to see Myanmar collapse either. China holds an enormous amount of financial investments in Myanmar, and would not benefit from added chaos. Nor would neighbouring countries, which would face a colossal refugee crisis - which, as previously mentioned, Bangladesh already is. The desire to not see a fractured Myanmar doesn’t really exist anywhere, and doesn’t really have anything pointing to it happening.
TAI Score: Degree 3. The current situation in Myanmar is utterly dreadful, with attacks on civilians occurring almost daily. A collapsed, fractured Myanmar would likely send ripples throughout East and Southeast Asia, with a near-double digit number of countries almost certain to face the direct consequences of such an event. While we should be thankful that this outcome is not on the horizon, we should still hope for peace there soon - though it does not appear to be on the horizon either.
The Hans Island Whiskey War
Border disputes are not particularly rare around the world. In fact, there are approximately 150 actively taking place right now, with some being areas of potential concern (such as the South China Sea), and other being areas of barely-controlled conflict (such as Crimea and eastern Ukraine).
And then, there is the dispute over Hans Island - which was probably the most peaceful and cordial territorial dispute in the world.
Hans Island’s location renders it extremely difficult to reach. Source: Google Earth
Hans Island is not easy to reach, at all. Geolocation tools on Google Earth reveal that it is located extraordinarily far north (about 4500km, or 2800 miles, north of New York City in a straight line) in a strait between Canada and Greenland. The island is only 1.3sq km (0.5mi) in width and is home to nothing more than seabirds, and two bottles of liquor - specifically, Canadian rye whiskey, and Danish schnapps - that were swapped out for one another as both Denmark and Canada vied for control of the island.
The situation began in the 1970s when both countries began to conduct geographical surveys of the region, but neither sides’ maps contained Hans Island - likely due to its complete insignificance. When rumors began to swirl of a Canadian resource company beginning to survey the region (and Hans Island), Denmark’s Minister for Greenland Affairs flew via helicopter to the island to plant a Danish flag and a bottle of schnapps, with a sign reading “Welcome to the Danish Island”.
The Whisky War began when Canada responded with a bottle of rye whiskey, a Canadian flag, and a “Welcome to Canada” sign. This went back and forth for years, with no end in sight for decades.
Photography shows a Danish flag raising in 2002, and a Canadian flag raising in 2005, on Hans Island. Source: The Telegraph
The “war” had a debatable serious side - climate change meant that the island could have been used as a staging ground for offshore drilling and hold strategic purpose after a certain period of time. Furthermore, an unannounced visit by a Canadian minister in 2005 did cause formal complaint from Denmark - though the only outcome was agreeing to have each country notify one another of all future visits by any ministers from either side.
In 2022, a formal resolution to the dispute was finally settled, splitting the island in half from north to south (meaning that Canada now technically shares a land border with Denmark). In addition to resolving the diplomatic conundrum, the agreement also outlined clear maritime rights, and outlined clear rights for indigenous people to use the land.
TAI Score: Degree 0. Even prior to the Whiskey War’s resolution in 2022, the dispute was extremely unlikely to flare into actual hostility given the generally peaceful nature of Canada and Denmark (as well as the phenomenon of the Democratic Peace Theory). While Arctic politics and disputes can hold considerable implications for geopolitical stability, Hans Island was never truly at risk of being at the heart of an international conflagration.
Cargo Cults
An interesting fact about the Buddha is that he was a real person that was confirmed to have existed, the only chief deity in a major system of belief (with Jesus Christ as a debateable contender) to have done so. Siddharta Gautama, his mortal name, was born around 2500 years ago in what is modern day Nepal (or northern India). His life, and path to enlightenment, is fairly well documented in Buddhist history stretching from India to Thailand, China, Korea, and Japan.
John Frum is a less straightforward, and less well-known, character - despite living only about a century ago.
The cargo cult of Vanuatu in the South Pacific is an exceptionally unique system of tradition and belief left over from the Second World War. Its adherents are the descendants of local tribesmen who witnessed a level of wealth and development by US forces stationed on their islands, that they determined they quite simply must be gods who summoned their endless food, wealth, and supplies from thin air by magic. The symbol of the cargo cult believers is a simple red cross - a symbol left behind by the medical staff that gave them life-saving medicine. Many believe that by imitating the servicemen who came to the islands, they can will them into returning with their infrastructure and riches.
The believers on some islands go to extreme lengths to do so.
To explain, the locals believed that rituals performed by the US military - wearing uniforms, marching around, and building aeroplanes - were what summoned the wealth and the cargo. It makes sense, too: not understanding how a radio worked would lead one to similar beliefs. As such, cargo cult members copy US uniforms, march in step with bamboo “rifles” over one shoulder, and have even built “airstrips” with “control towers” filled with “radios” to oversee “planes” - all of which are made entirely out of wood.
So, who’s John Frum?
The short answer is: nobody knows for sure. John Frum is, on the island of Vanuatu, a figurehead of the cargo cults - though local elders insist that he was a white American who urged the locals to stop following the lifestyles largely forced upon them by the British colonial government. They contend that he brought so many material goods with him, that he is “an all-knowing spirit, even more powerful than Jesus" who lives inside their local volcano.
Cargo cults exist across Melanesia - the island archipelago consisting of many nations across the South Pacific - and vary from country to country. And while our world is “shrinking”, as geographers like to describe it, it may be several more generations before the wealth from the Global North reaches these islands, fulfilling the John Frum prophecy.
TAI Score: Degree 0. Although some cargo cults in Papua New Guinea have been associated with cannibalism, this practice is likely far older than the “cult” itself. The belief systems that encourage people to build fake wooden planes and pretend to be air traffic controllers are harmless, and do not present any threat to international society.
French Decolonisation
The decolonisation of Asia and Africa was a long process that began shortly after WWII, with the first phase from 1945-1960 witnessing the independence of approximately 36 countries. During this period, Egypt received independence from Britain, Korea received independence from Japan, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo received independence from Belgium (or, more accurately, the Belgian emperor directly as the vast nation was his personal property).
The story of French decolonisation is not quite as clear-cut, however - and one could argue it isn’t as successful as the other former colonial powers have been. Below are three examples of places where France’s influence appears to be slipping rapidly - if there’s any of it left in 2024 at all.
Union members protest in Martinique’s capital, Fort-de-France. Source: France24
Martinique
Martinique is one of those places that doesn’t spring to mind for much more than tourism. In 2022, the Caribbean island received over 660,000 tourists, a number almost double the size of its permanent resident population. It’s recent politics, however, have been unsteady at best: last month, violent protests broke out over the high cost of living (likely driven by wealthy tourists), to which authorities reportedly turned a blind eye. In particular, food prices have remained 40% higher than in mainland France due to import costs, and although the government struck a deal to lower food prices by an average of 20%, protestors say that the move isn’t enough. They are demanding that prices should be no higher in the mainland, and have thus rejected the deal. Issues go beyond food as well - phone and internet prices are also 30% higher than in mainland France. Continued protests have led to the extension of curfews and even the closure of the local airport.
New Caledonia
On the other side of the world in the Pacific Ocean near Australia, the situation in New Caledonia is more of an electoral grievance than an economic one. A proposed amendment in Paris would allow for all people of New Caledonia to participate in elections after ten years of residency, rather than only indigenous Kanak people. The Kanak people feel that this proposal would greatly dilute their political autonomy by adding 25,000 non-indigenous people to the registry, thus vastly threatening the independence movement that many of them support. 13 people have been killed in the violence by emergency police deployed to the country from France, and damage to infrastructure has cost an estimated 2.2 million euros - an issue greatly exacerbated by businesses left in ruin, and a nickel industry already on the decline.
The Sahel
Coup leaders announce the suspension of the constitution and dissolution of state infrastructure on national television in Burkina Faso. Source: Anadolu Ajansi
Perhaps the most famous example of damage to France’s image in its former colonies comes from the Sahel - particularly Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso.
In Mali, Operation Barkhane - France’s mission to eradicate Islamist groups from its frontier regions, its largest overseas operation in the world - ended when Assimi Goita, a military officer, staged a coup that demanded the departure of French troops from Mali. The French government, realising that strained diplomacy with the national government combined with battling jihadist groups on their territory (as well as numerous other factors) was too much to handle, announced the end of Barkhane.
Burkina Faso’s story is somewhat more straightforward: after a 2022 coup erupted over France’s perceived inability to secure the country from insurgents, the new military government refused to renew the French licence to conduct special operations on Burkinabe soil, stating that the country wished to defend itself.
In 2023, Niger’s coup sent shockwaves around the world for confirming that the other two incidents in Mali and Burkina Faso were part of a larger, anti-French pattern. The junta proceeded to expel the French ambassador and French troops, before scrapping EU accords that allowed for the training of Niger’s security forces. This particular case greatly alarmed the Western world due to the almost instant bond between the junta and the Russian Wagner Group mercenary firm, which has promised alongside the Russian military to “increase the combat readiness” of Nigerian troops.
TAI Score: Degree 3. The decline of French influence throughout the Global South will lead to increased difficulty for a Western democracy and keystone EU member to operate around the world. Furthermore, the instability left behind by the departure of French political and military assets are often capitalised upon by autocratic actors, such as Russia and China, particularly in the Sahel region. France will need to make concessions to maintain a grip on its unique status throughout the world - or risk shrinking back exclusively to Europe.
