The USSR’s (Almost) Civil Wars
The Soviet Union was, for all intents and purposes, established through a civil war. In 1922, the Bolsheviks seized the far eastern port of Vladivostok (near Japan) before launching a campaign throughout the rest of the world’s largest country to root out all opposition. In the decades that followed - particularly the earlier ones under Stalin - the USSR was an extremely stable country, banning not only opposition parties but also trade unions, the Orthodox Church, and any other organisation with the capability to supersede the Communist Party’s authority.
But most people don’t realise the Soviet Union nearly ended in not one, but two, civil wars as well - despite hostilities flaring as recently as the 1990s.
Source: Associated Press
Before the Union collapsed in 1991, the country was in dire straits. Then-chairman Mikhail Gorbachev attempted to address serious internal issues (stagnation, supply shortages, and corruption) through a series of reforms. These reforms were, however, far more wide-reaching and devastating to the communist system, leading to a rapid (roughly two years) collapse in the country’s ability to project power into eastern Europe and Central Asia. Nationalism -which changed people’s self perception from “Soviet” to “Russian” - brought down the Soviet Union in Moscow soon after.
On August 18th, however, a group of hardline communists made an enormous gamble, placing Gorbachev under house arrest in Crimea, and sending tanks towards the parliament building (perhaps ironically named the White House). However, between defiance from protestors and a lack of support from almost everyone imaginable - the military, broader political forces, and external powers including the US - the coup never fully materialised, and the leaders were arrested only days later. Regardless, the USSR had been vastly weakened - partially by the attempted coup - and Gorbachev had little choice but to resign.
History outdid itself two years later.
Source: National Security Archive
Russia became an “independent” country (despite de facto leading the USSR previously), one of its key reforms was the election of a president independent of its elected parliament to take over from Gorbachev: Boris Yeltsin. To say Yeltsin disliked Parliament is to say the very least - in fact, he openly stated to his German counterpart Helmut Kohl that it was “full of fascists”. In an attempt to shut them out, Yeltsin slowly attempted to consolidate power, before an attempt to impeach him broke out in 1993 - twice, failing both times.
In response, Yeltsin ordered tanks to, once again, descend on government buildings. Lawmakers were swiftly arrested, and Yeltsin was able to rule by decree for six years. While democracy in Russia had failed, largely self-serving and wholly un-cooperative members of Parliament were removed. When Yeltsin resigned over accusations of corruption, he was able to hand off power to a man that instantly protected him: Vladimir Putin.
The Country Without Any Land
The smallest country in the world is the Vatican City, boasting just 0.5 square kilometres (0.2 square miles) in size and a permanent population of just 453 people. Despite its size, it has diplomatic relations with nearly every country and international organisations, as at least an observer, and an incredible amount of influence through the Catholic Church in countries ranging from Brazil to Italy to the Philippines - especially considering the country’s size. In fact, it’s amazing to think that the world’s 1.4 billion Catholics defer to a piece of land that less than 500 people live in full-time.
But the Vatican technically isn’t the smallest sovereign entity in the world. In fact, it technically isn’t even the smallest sovereign entity in Catholicism.
I’ve been intentionally careful with my words there, since the Sovereign Order of Malta - not to be confused with Malta - isn’t a country per se, but rather a humanitarian organisation with origins in the 11th century, a papal endorsement, and nearly 120,000 personnel. It’s so large that it has formal diplomatic relations with 113 countries (all of which are listed here), as well as permanent observer status at the UN, European Union, African Union, and numerous other regional blocs - despite not formally owning any territory.
So what does it actually do?
As the oldest medical mission in the world, the Sovereign Order currently works in a humanitarian capacity for refugees, disaster victims, medical care, and social services throughout the world. They even have a wing dedicated to elderly, palliative, and dementia care, and run soup kitchens in areas of economic crisis. At a diplomatic level, they have even imported emergency medical materials and served as mediators in raging conflicts.
Interested in working for them? They accept volunteers - and currently boast 95,000 of them - but anything beyond that gets a little tricky. Becoming a member requires an invitation from an existing member, a history in service to the poor, approval by an executive committee, a year of preparation and mentorship, and being a Roman Catholic.
The Strange Side of Digital Maps
Google Maps is one of the most useful apps a person can use. From navigating one’s way between two points, to identifying the geography of a conflict’s landscape, the system is an incredible tool to have in your back pocket. Google Earth is even more powerful - with a greater level of tools and details available to people who know how to use them - and yet, it remains a free programme that only requires a ten-minute download.
In some ways, it’s a little too powerful - and its satellites have uncovered some downright odd things before. Coordinates for all of the sites can be copy/pasted into Google Maps or Google Earth if you’re curious to see them yourself!
Jordan’s Wheels (Coordinates: 31.029° N, 37.641° E)
Located on the Saudi-Jordanian border, observers on the ground have described these wheel-and-spoke structures (of which there number as many as one thousand) as looking no different from a pile of stones - so much so, that they weren’t considered anomalous until pilots in the 1920s remarked that they look like wheels from the air. Bedouin tribes have referred to them simply as “the works of old men”, indicating a lack of knowledge by both locals and foreign archaeologists. What has been determined is that some - but not all - of the wheels seem to be aligned with the sun, particularly on the summer and winter solstices, signifying a possible calendar system akin to that of Stonehenge. Much like Stonehenge, however, the Wheels’ exact purpose is likely to remain shrouded in mystery for quite some time.
Nagoro, Japan (Coordinates: 33.8444° N, 134.1559° E)
Nagoro isn’t that different from any other town. Google Street View doesn’t show anything odd - the buildings, streets, and signs are all real. You can see people performing the same tasks you’d see anywhere else in rural Japan: riding bikes, doing farm work, and sitting in classrooms. The only issue is that none of them are real - the Scarecrow Village is famous for having ten times more mannequins than people. Even more unusual is that the mannequins are so realistic, Google Street View automatically blurs their faces out - meaning the people in the thumbnail for the this story on the Featured Articles page are fake. The scarecrows were initially created by an artist who wanted to memorialise the village’s past, now fading as the local population dwindles due to declining birth rates and young people heading to the cities for jobs. 37 people remain in Nagoro, an especially small figure when you realise the area receives over 5000 tourists annually.
The Outback Triangle (-30.0457° N, 115.3463° E)
Out in the Australian desert, about 3 hours’ drive north of Perth, is a triangle of trees that looks to be almost intentionally planted that way. The curious thing is, it doesn’t appear to have been - though that may be the most normal thing about this area. Rumors have spread that the area has caused problems for aircraft computers and occasionally has lights at each end of the shape. If this sounds awfully familiar to the Bermuda Triangle, that may be because the Outback Triangle is located almost perfectly on the other end of the Earth, and matches closely to the Southern Triangle constellation that looks exactly like it.
TAI Score: Degree 0. Of the three stories listed above, none of them cause any threat to international security, politics, or society - even minor. At most, they do however remind us that despite all of our technology and capabilities, there are still some mysteries we can’t solve - even if we observe them using machinery launched into orbit.
Is the World Sick of Tourism?
It’s only a week until Christmas and already the streets of London are packed. It’s no surprise either - almost 20 million people visited the UK in just the first half of 2024 alone, equivalent to just under 30% of the country’s population. They are expected to spend about £33 billion, roughly 92% of what was spent in 2019, pre-pandemic, after adjusting for inflation. The steady influx of money to the UK is great for the economy, but unrealised gains by the hospitality are being left on the table - with the Mayor “open to the idea of” a tourist tax for visitors in hotels. Maybe the bigger issue at hand, however, is the effect of tourism on local communities - and London doesn’t quite have the greatest impact or the largest measures to combat it.
Looking around the globe - it definitely seems like overtourism is becoming more glaring of an issue, and some countries are responding accordingly.
Peru
In May 2024, officials declared a new, far stricter set of rules for visitors to the Incan citadel of Machu Picchu. Groups, which must be no more than ten people in size, have up to two hours to view the site with a mandatory tour guide. Only 500 people per day may begin a hike up the Inca Trail, with tickets only available from the Ministry of Culture’s box office. Although local protests have erupted in the past over the government monopolising ticket sales, there are no imminent plans to close the site.
Italy
The city of Venice in particular has made sweeping changes and restrictions to its laws about visitors. Tour groups are now limited to 25 people (with certain exceptions), tour guides are forbidden from using megaphones, cruise ships are banned from entering the city centre, and the construction of new hotels has been capped. The city also introduced an EUR 5 fee for day visitors, but critics claim it did little to curb tourism numbers.
Japan
The Japanese approach to dealing with the vast influx of foreign tourists is extremely diverse and creative. Mount Fuji alone has had fences erected in popular areas to stop tourists from trespassing on private property and blocking roads for photography. Fees and daily attendance limits have also been imposed on the mountain’s trails to cut down on knock-on effects like littering. But the greatest case study might be the roads in Gion, Kyoto’s ban on foreigners entirely. As the country’s origin point for geisha culture, the neighbourhood’s most famous streets became places where the women felt uncomfortable by overwhelming numbers of foreign photographers, and business and locals began struggling to coexist with visitors. A fine of JPY 10,000 (USD 65) is now levied on overseas visitors who attempt to travel down the streets.
Spain
A YouGov poll published in September 2024 indicated that half of all Spaniards interviewed stated issues with overtourism in their areas. Whatever the nationwide percentage is, it was high enough to spark anti-tourism protests earlier this year, starting in the Balearic Islands but slowly spreading to Barcelona, Seville, and San Sebastian on the mainland. According to a Basque civic organisation member, “What we’ve been seeing over the last eight or 10 years has been a huge acceleration of the process of ‘touristification’. All our city’s services have been put at the orders of the tourism industry.” . Barcelona has already started addressing the issue: cruise ships, and the construction of new hotels, are both banned in the city centre.
TAI Score: Degree 2. While it is highly unlikely that efforts to curb tourism and overcrowding will radically affect geopolitics, they could have direct impact on a national economy if poorly handled. Tourists should check ahead to make sure their destination of choice isn’t somewhere that suffers from this phenomenon, and should obey all regulations while overseas.
The World’s Longest Airstrikes
A map displays the flight range of Operation Black Buck.
The world’s longest direct commercial flight is from New York’s JFK to Singapore’s Changi Airport. It stretches over 15,000km (9500 miles) and takes nearly 19 hours to complete. Flying nonstop at time of writing this article will cost about £1150 (USD $1450) just for the one-way ticket.
The world’s longest airstrikes, however, are in a different league entirely. In fact, they’re not even the same metaphorical ball game.
Operation Black Buck, 1982
One of the longest bombing runs recorded took place during the Falklands War. The British RAF bomber took off from Ascension Island in the central Atlantic Ocean, refueling mid-flight with tanker jets flying alongside, before dropping 21 450kg bombs on Argentinian targets on the Port Stanley Airfield. The total round-trip flight time was just short of 16 hours, and although seven Black Buck missions were planned, only five of them were successfully performed.
2nd of February strikes, 2024
On February 2nd-5th 2024, two manned B-1 bombers took off from Dyess Air Force Base in Texas, USA, to launch 125 missiles at 85 strategic targets run by Iranian-backed militants in Syria. To get there in a single continuous flight, the bombers received aerial refueling twice, once over the UK and again over Cyprus, before launching the strikes for approximately 30 minutes, turning around, and doing the flight all over again.
Operation Enduring Freedom, 2001
Enduring Freedom’s refueling points are marked with red dots, with its return flight in yellow
“It took us less than 30 days to plan and launch a fully fledged air campaign against the Taliban and al-Qaeda”, according to Lt. Gen David Deptula. In the first few days of the campaign, the US did not have the infrastructure already in the Middle East to strike Afghanistan - but they didn’t need it. While troops and other materials reached the region, B-2 bombers took off from Missouri in the central USA, flying in a single mission to Afghanistan by refuelling over California, Hawaii, Guam, Malaysia, and the Maldives before bombing the Taliban and landing in Diego Garcia, a British RAF base in the Indian Ocean. The total flight time was 44 hours.
TAI Score: Degree 3. Although these airstrikes do not immensely shape the nature of conflicts, and are highly difficult to successfully achieve, this weakness may actually be their greatest threat as countries increasingly turn to super- and hyper-sonic missiles to achieve objectives - massively changing combat capabilities worldwide.
Prospera, Honduras
Every continent in the world has its financial hub. North America has New York City, East Asia has Hong Kong and Shanghai, Europe has London and Frankfurt, Africa has Casablanca, and South America has Sao Paulo.
Zaha Hadid-designed buildings overlook Prospera’s beach. Source: Zaha Hadid Architects
It’s not a continent, Central America’s financial capital has a bit more unusual of a story.
Prospera, Honduras, also known as Prospera ZEDE (Zone for Employment and Economic Development in Spanish), is located on an island about 80 kilometers north of the mainland. It is a for-profit, privately-owned city designed to be a haven for startups and those seeking to conduct business under a “government” where taxes are optional. The taxes that do exist are incredibly light: 5% for personal income, 1% for business income, 2.5% for sales, and 1% on land value. No other taxes exist, other than an annual fee to live there ($260 for Hondurans, $1300 for foreigners). Businesses can even choose a regulatory framework consisting of any combination of up to 36 countries, or even customise their own.
It’s definitely not without success: since its launch, Prospera’s site boasts that the city has been responsible for the creation of over 200 businesses, 950 jobs, USD $100 million invested, and nearly 2,000 residents from over 40 countries. Le Monde also reported on some of the stranger projects that go on here, including bleeding-edge cryptocurrency tech development, subdermal magnetic implants, and longevity gene therapy trials.
Honduran protestors want the zone brought under control. Source: El Faro
Perhaps unsurprisingly, Prospera’s investors include Silicon Valley giants such as Peter Thiel, Sam Altman, and Marc Andreessen who see it as a groundbreaking frontier for governance and economic development experimentation.
But the Honduran government wants it gone.
Prospera was allowed to be created by a conservative government that established Special Economic Zones to bring in foreign investment. But the current leftist administration wants to abolish them, stating that they are far more extreme in nature than those found in Singapore or the Cayman Islands. They’re widely unpopular among Hondurans too, but the company behind Prospera is suing the Honduran government, citing potential future losses in an investor-state settlement at a World Bank court.
If Prospera wins, it could bankrupt one of Latin America’s poorest countries.
TAI Score: Degree 2. While it’s highly unlikely that geopolitics will undergo any seismic shifts even is Prospera wins, the precedent it sets could be damaging to future resolutions over corporations taking advantage of cash-strapped countries that will attract anyone that promises investment and incoming money.
What If The US Declines?
Last week, SimpleNation looked at some of the key issues China is facing and speculated what would probably happen next if the country’s best days were discovered to be behind it. Through either a peaceful withdrawal and dialing back of foreign investment programmes, or a violent distraction to divert its population’s attention while securing valuable assets by force, we would definitely be aware of a hypothetical decline while it happened.
Now, it’s time to look at the other side of the question: what if the US declines?
On Sunday, November 24th 2024, The Telegraph published an opinion piece drawing parallels between Trump’s America and the fall of Rome. While the article itself is rather odd, exploring the idea through (of all things) the lens of the new Gladiator film, it does bring up a highly salient point: that the US is “dominated by a handful of patrician families” that seize power to stay out of the judicial system’s wrath while social movements seek to abandon foundational principles and commit “cultural suicide”.
So what happens if the era of American “exceptionalism” ends?
Status Quo, At All Costs
USAID projects assist with agricultural development in Pakistan. Source: USAID Archive
It’s unclear what this would look like for the simple reason that there’s no precedent for it. What it would probably indicate is a less peaceful situation in which the US becomes far more aggressive in key conflict hotspots: increased funding and active support for Israel, Taiwan, the Philippines, and Ukraine. Red lines would be possibly drawn and backed up by the US military itself. We would probably notice if this happened - the tricky part is determining where it would happen first.
There might also be ramped up spending for US-led international institutions. The World Bank and IMF, as well as the country’s own USAID, might see more soft power projection take place to influence countries and partners without resorting to violence. Truthfully, this is the best case scenario at this time. Knowing Trump however, it’s also probably the least likely scenario.
Conservative Isolationism
As of November 2024, this seems like the more likely candidate of the two. The incoming Trump administration is seeking ways to quickly wrap up the wars in Ukraine and Gaza, threatened trade wars on China to bring manufacturing back to the US, and even economic consequences for Canada and Mexico if the two countries don’t do more to address illegal immigration and drug trafficking.
In blue: countries that received US defence aid within the past two years. In yellow: countries that house US military bases. Striped: countries with US military bases, that receive defence aid within the past two years.
It’s possible that the US ends up partially sanctioning itself after a certain point, all in an effort to on-shore jobs and industries, leaving an economic vacuum behind.
That vacuum would almost certainly be seized upon by the US’ rivals. Russia would likely expand influence into Europe again through fossil fuel sales, and China’s Belt and Road would expand well beyond its current capacity. Countries in Europe and Asia that currently rely on US defence support would be forced to follow along with the administration’s red lines, most likely spending a pre-determined amount of their own GDP on self-defence first. Other countries would likely turn to their regional powers - Bangladesh to India, Uruguay to Brazil, and the Philippines to Japan or Indonesia. It might make America more self-preserving and wealthy - but the rest of the world would need many years, at least, to adjust.
TAI Score: Degree 4. Depending on the methods, the outcome of a declining US could range anywhere from a peaceful transition to a new hegemon (probably China) to a complete and utter disaster. The country’s deep, deep entrenchment in global society and international economics means that there would very likely be a less-than-smooth decline for nearly every country on Earth. Even the US’ rivals would feel the impact financially, if not in every other sector of society as well.
What if China Declines?
When China started publishing economic figures in the early- and mid-1990s, the statistics were astounding. Peter Nolan, an economic analyst, wrote that by 2001, the total amount of foreign investment into China was USD $150 billion higher than the amount invested into the entirety of Latin America and the Caribbean combined. It’s no wonder the Chinese Communist Party doesn’t have many internal threats: the GDP per capita in China: in one generation, the average GDP per capita has gone up by almost 18,000% from USD $162 to USD $12,600.
Today’s picture in 2024 is still extremely impressive, with a projected economic growth of 5% (a higher projection than any country in Europe in 2024). And that’s considered to be a slowed down growth rate by Chinese standards - In 2007, it was reportedly as high as 14%. But the world’s second largest economy is beginning to face two issues. I already mentioned the economy slowing down: the other issue is aging demographics which, to be fair, is also happening throughout the developed world.
So what happens if China finds itself in an increasingly disadvantageous position? Only time will tell, but probably one of two, diametrically opposed, things:
Peaceful Withdrawal
The Altynkol rail hub in Kazakhstan was built with Chinese money as part of the Belt and Road. Source: CGTN
Right now, China sends an astonishing amount of money overseas. In one decade since its launch, the country’s foreign investment Belt and Road Initiative has sent over USD $1 trillion abroad. These infrastructure projects exist in every continent, ranging from Latin America, to Europe, to Africa, Central Asia, and Southeast Asia. Chinese state media announced in 2023 that there were nearly 500 Confucius Institute offices in 160 countries promoting Chinese cultural and language exchange, including in the United States. The BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) organisation has greatly appealed to the Global South, and organisations like the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) rival that of its counterpart, the US-led IMF.
But all of these projects cost money - and if the money dries up, their survival is put in serious jeopardy.
China routinely talks about the noble goal of “peaceful coexistence”. Considering the country has not been in a conflict since the late 1970s, it’s definitely something that Beijing appears to sincerely strive for. Thus, it’s entirely possible to believe that this will continue to be true if China is not able to fully overcome its current challenges. The greater global community might struggle - BRICS could lose a keystone founding member, dozens of countries could lose access to vital investment, and world economies may react negatively - but all of it would be better than a non-peaceful outcome. There may still be some assertiveness in Asia-Pacific, particularly in areas like the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea, but the threat of Sino-US conflict would subside.
Violent Distraction
A political cartoon depicts China’s extensive claims in the South China Sea. Source: Paresh Nath
Sometimes, in order to draw attention away from domestic strife, autocratic countries will lash out against their neighbours. A prime example of this occurred in 1982 when Argentina’s junta invaded the Falkland Islands to distract the population away from a poor economic standing and reignite nationalist sentiment amid general civil unrest.
In the West, fears simmer that China could do the same.
It’s impossible to predict where, but we can certainly narrow it down - the two most likely candidates are the South China Sea, and Taiwan Strait. Neither of these should be much of a surprise: the news frequently reports on incidents surrounding both. Considering the astonishing amount of trade and financial flows that come from East Asia, the outcome of either one would be disastrous - especially when compounded with the situations in Ukraine and the Middle East.
Another possible contender would be somewhere along the Belt and Road Initiative, where critical resources are under threat by local conflicts. This could include oil pipelines in Pakistan or Myanmar, or infrastructure investments throughout the Sahel via China’s naval base in Djibouti.
It might not even be direct - it could mean seeking to secure its position via proxy - such as increasing support for Russia in Ukraine, North Korea along the 38th Parallel, or the junta in Myanmar - to guarantee a stance of favourable security.
Whatever happens (assuming anything happens), we should hope for the best, but prepare for the worst by watching, waiting, and adapting to it before it happens. The world should seek the softest possible landing - and probably hope that China doesn’t decline at all.
TAI Score: Degree 4. While there’s no guarantee that China will decline - nor are there signs of it happening anytime soon - even the best case scenario could result in developmental downturn in the Global South, which may lead to a rise in instability and conflict in a much more difficult-to-contain landscape.
Most Modern Politicians are Maniacs
This article is not an endorsement or criticism of any politician, or their actions, anywhere. Rather, this article is meant to provide a bit of perspective.
It’s probably safe to assume that by the time you read this, you’re aware of the outcome of the 2024 US presidential election. Against almost all conceivable odds, Donald Trump will be returning to the White House in 2025. It’s probably also safe to assume that you’re aware he’s far from being a conventional president, not least of all because he completely lacked a career in politics before his first term began in 2017.
However, populist presidents around the world, also in some rather major countries, have done some spectacularly evil things that Trump never even attempted. Below is a showcasing of how, and why, most modern politicians around the world are more than a bit crazy.
Prabowo Subianto
Prabowo Subianto of Indonesia. Source: Ministry of State Secretariat
Indonesia’s eighth president was inaugurated on the 20th of October in a lavish display in front of a palace in Jakarta. As a frontrunner in his election campaign from February 2024, Subianto enjoyed the endorsement of then-president Joko Widodo, whose son is serving as vice president under Subianto in a move that has certainly raised more than a few eyebrows.
What’s closer to the centre of the spotlight, however, are Subianto’s alleged war crimes, which include the abduction and torture of democracy activists in the 1990s (13 remain missing), as well as the committing of “atrocities” against separatist forces in East Timor and West Papua. The lack of proper education over the challenging years prior to 1994 in Indonesia, however, signify that many young people are either not aware of, or uninterested in, Subianto’s violent past.
Jair Bolsonaro
The former president of Brazil is probably the most directly comparable to Donald Trump. Bolsonaro’s authoritarian approach to the COVID-19 pandemic illustrated his desire to be a dictator in the midst of crisis. This included the outright objection to the use of WHO-approved vaccines, instead preferring questionable cures with minimal (if any) scientific backing, became most noticeable when Bolsonaro rejected US-manufactured vaccines for over seven months while a far less effective and more expensive vaccine produced by a contact of Bolsonaro’s was quickly cleared for approval.
Bolsonaro’s devastation of the Amazon rainforest is equally well-documented. At a UN conference in New York, he pushed back against the idea that the rainforest was a “heritage of humanity”, instead declaring that they belonged to the Brazilian people, allowing him to turn a blind eye while loggers and large-scale livestock ranchers cut down the forest for economic gain.
Recep Tayyip Erdogan
Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey. Source: Reuters
Few groups are free from persecution in Erdogan’s Turkey. Since he took office 18 years ago, ethnic Kurds, women, LGBT people, and democratic institutions have all fallen within his crosshairs. In 2019 alone, more than 36,000 people faced criminal investigations for criticising Erdogan online, with nearly 9600 being sent to prison for doing so.
Corruption in Turkey under Erdogan has also found a somewhat unexpected home: New York. Numerous contributions to city and state politicians have been traced back to groups associated with Erdogan, including more than $40,000 from just 16 people donated to a single politician from New York in the US House of Representatives. The mayor of New York City has also been indicted over allegations of accepting bribes from Turkish officials.
Rodrigo Duterte
Arguably the most outrageous character on this list, Duterte is notorious from his time as mayor of Davao and president of The Philippines. The former president became infamous from his “war on drugs” in the Philippines, which authorised vigilante groups and security forces to kill suspected drug users and dealers on sight - a widely alleged crime against humanity. Many of the police officers responsible for these killings - approximately 30,000 of which took place to date - further admitted to falsifying data to justify murders.
In fact, in October 2024, Duterte admitted to personally maintaining death squads while mayor of Davao to track down and kill drug users and dealers. These groups, consisting largely of local gangsters and crooked police officers, were encouraged by Duterte to provoke targets into violence before killing them in manufactured self-defence. Throughout his questioning, Duterte remained defiant, stating in reference to the drug cartels that “I hate drugs, make no mistake about it. If given another chance, I’ll wipe all of you.”.
It’s pretty clear then, that while Donald Trump is no saint - he’s certainly not alone in this regard and, if anything, is fairly normal by international standards.
TAI Score: Degree 4. Populist leaders are undeniably domestic threats, even if nominated for their position by popular vote. In the case of Turkey and Indonesia, these leaders have very real potential to cause diplomatic incidents and cross-border conflicts. Within their own countries, they can often serve to erode democratic norms and crack down on minority groups before consolidating their positions to rule for far longer than their political systems intend.
Saudi In Transition
SimpleNation was blessed with the opportunity to sit down with a friend of the website and ask her questions about how life in Saudi Arabia has changed over the past decade. Yasmeen “Yas” Alfaris very kindly sat down with me to talk about how life is for young people in the Kingdom today, and what may be next for one of the most important countries in the Middle East.
What’s the biggest misconception about life in KSA? What do you wish was more widely known or understood?
That it’s dangerous or not safe for Western people, who run the risk of being discriminated against by locals, or that women are openly mistreated. Sometimes bloggers/influencers are asked if they’re crazy for going to the Middle East, without realising that Saudi has world-class hospitality, and that Riyadh is as safe as any Western city.
What has/have been the greatest change(s) to social or cultural life for average people in KSA over the last 10-15 years?
I would say treatment of and opportunities for women has improved a lot. The government is trying to bring society to a more equal standing between the genders, especially in employment and labour. The country is also becoming more relaxed with rules surrounding social interactions between the two - women are allowed to be more casual and friendly if working in a cafe, for example. People are beginning to get used to it too. By contrast, some men in past generations didn’t even know what their wives looked like before their wedding day. There’s still a long way to go but things are trending in a more relaxed direction.
How has life changed for minority groups, such as Shi’a Muslims?
It’s changed a lot. Ten to fifteen years ago, discrimination against Shi’as was rife, and getting a job placement or university spot for Shi’as was very difficult. People are much more tolerant and show curiosity more than anything nowadays, and the labour market is much more meritocracy-based. But Shi’a have always been part of Saudi culture and society, and cases of discrimination are individual acts - not mob violence.
What changes might still be wanted or needed, and what might be coming next (if anything)?
We’re changing so many things - there’s more tourists, women can drive and play sports, but some people are not keeping up with it all. The answer I had in my head for changes “needed” is for the perception of these changes to be more universal nationwide. I recently felt unsafe at a music festival in Saudi because I didn’t know how the locals in that particular region would perceive us for not dressing or acting modestly. Some people, especially older generations, just aren’t used to seeing the diversity in thought and actions.
Do you generally feel that life in Saudi has improved for people over the past 10-15 years? Do others feel the same way?
Absolutely, and the majority definitely feel the same way. Universities are improving, social life is a little more free, leisure opportunities are growing, and public safety is constantly getting better. Job opportunities have improved for the average Saudi too.
Is there anything else that hasn’t been mentioned that you’d like to speak about?
Don’t judge a book by its cover. Come visit Saudi and interact with the locals and see if your opinions are the same afterwards!
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Many thanks to Yasmeen Alfaris for her help with this article!
The 38-Minute War
Wars are almost never brief. One of the most popular sayings from the First World War’s initial periods was that the war would be “over by Christmas” before stretching on for four grueling years. Goodness knows what was said at the outbreak of the Hundred Years’ War (which actually lasted for 116 years). To take a more modern example, the Korean War began in 1950 and technically has yet to formally end, while the Syrian civil war will enter its 14th year in March 2025.
But there’s one war (if you can even call it that) that ended in under an hour: The Anglo-Zanzibar War, also known as The 38-Minute War.
The Zanzibar Palace shortly before the outbreak of conflict. Source: HistoricUK
The conflict’s origins exist in the splitting up of colonial Africa between European powers, specifically the 1896 ceding of Tanzania to Germany while Zanzibar remained a protectorate of the British Empire. The sultan of Zanzibar, Hamad bin Thuwaini, was happy to rule on behalf of the British, but died under mysterious circumstances - likely poisoned by his cousin, Khalid bin Bargash, who quickly took control of the throne and declared himself sultan. Viewed by the British as overly independent and dismissive of imperial rule, Khalid was given one hour to surrender and leave the palace. Upon refusing, Khalid amassed a force of 2800 soldiers, civilians, and guards to defend the palace.
The proceeding British artillery bombardment, combined with an incursion by Royal Marines and hired Zanzibari mercenaries, defeated the force of 2800 so quickly that newspapers did not even have time to cover the event, merely reporting that “It took rather less than an hour for Her Majesty’s warships to reduce the palace to ashes. The affair was briskly carried out, and obviously with relish.”. Zanzibar’s only warship, the HHS Glasgow, was a luxury yacht with a single cannon installed, and was quickly sank by the Royal Navy. While 500 people from Khalid’s force were killed, the British suffered only one injury - and zero deaths. Upon victory, the British installed Hamud bin Muhammad, a pro-British Omani, to the throne. Khalid spent the rest of his life in exile throughout various locations, before returning to Mombasa and dying in 1927.
British Royal Marines pose next to a captured cannon. Source: TheArchive
From start to finish, the war lasted less than 45 minutes, and is the shortest war in history.
TAI Score: Degree 0. The war was incredibly decisive and ended in the installation of a pro-British sultan. Today, Zanzibar is a semi-autonomous region in the sovereign nation of Tanzania.
Will Myanmar Collapse?
On August 1st, 2022, SimpleNation published an article asking why democracy has failed in Myanmar so many times.
The short answer is that in a moment of desperation immediately after securing independence from the British, the military (or Tatmadaw) seized the reins of power to quickly put down a series of ethnic rebellions and sort out economic turmoil without needing to slowly deliberate through parliamentary proceedings. The problem is, the Tatmadaw never really gave up power - and for many years, the largest opposition party (the USDP) was openly aligned with the military. So, when their mass unpopularity in several consecutive elections made it easy for the pro-democracy party to erode their power, the military quite simply overthrew them on February 1st, 2021. Myanmar has been embroiled in a horrific civil war ever since.
Whether or not Myanmar can survive as a single country is open to speculation. Throughout the more remote parts of the country, the junta government is rapidly losing control of entire provinces - the two most significant (but by no means only) of which are listed below.
Rakhine state
Despite looking like a professional military, the Arakan Army is an anti-junta rebel force. Source: The Irrawaddy.
Located in the country’s southwest, Rakhine is notorious for the military’s mass killings of ethnic Rohingyas prior to the 2021 coup. Many of these communities have fled to neighbouring Bangladesh where they live in refugee camps around Cox’s Bazar. The Arakan Army, Rakhine’s most powerful rebel group, have secured vast swaths of land, seizing military bases, civilian airports, and entire towns. In fact, the rebel group is so secured in much of the province, they are able to run an entire standardised education system using schools in towns captured from the Tatmadaw. Many in Rakhine state contend, however, that tactics used by the Arakan Army are no less brutal than the Tatmadaw’s, which will cause issues if the now-autonomous region wants to gain international recognition - and work with countries like India and Bangladesh to begin trade, diplomacy, and the repatriation of nearly 1 million refugees.
Kachin state
Ground-level photography shows a China-Myanmar border crossing in Kachin state. Source: Khin Kyaw Nyo
The Kachin Independence Army (KIA), the largest rebel group in Kachin state to the country’s far north, initially remained neutral following the coup. In fact, it took a full month before fighting resumed, when the Tatmadaw attacked a KIA base. The KIA is far older than the 2021 coup, however, and actually dates back to the 1960s, when the country’s first coup witnessed a situation extremely similar to the one from three years ago.
By the end of 2021, the KIA had become aligned with other rebel groups due to a united desire to see the Tatmadaw overthrown. The KIA has especially drawn attention due to its seizure of military bases in the northern Kachin and Shan states, where rare earth materials are often extracted. This has drawn significant attention from China, with whom Kachin state shares a border, across which a significant amount of trade is conducted.
Will Myanmar collapse?
Probably not. After fighting together against the military, many of these rebel groups have formed agreements, such as the Three Brothers Alliance, and made an entire parallel shadow government that exists in direct opposition to the Tatmadaw. The framework for a new, democratic Myanmar certainly exists internally.
Externally, no other country wants to see Myanmar collapse either. China holds an enormous amount of financial investments in Myanmar, and would not benefit from added chaos. Nor would neighbouring countries, which would face a colossal refugee crisis - which, as previously mentioned, Bangladesh already is. The desire to not see a fractured Myanmar doesn’t really exist anywhere, and doesn’t really have anything pointing to it happening.
TAI Score: Degree 3. The current situation in Myanmar is utterly dreadful, with attacks on civilians occurring almost daily. A collapsed, fractured Myanmar would likely send ripples throughout East and Southeast Asia, with a near-double digit number of countries almost certain to face the direct consequences of such an event. While we should be thankful that this outcome is not on the horizon, we should still hope for peace there soon - though it does not appear to be on the horizon either.
