What Happened to Somali Pirates?

In 2011, an aid worker named Jessica Buchanan was held captive by pirates in Somalia for three months before being rescued by American Navy SEALs. Her story of being held captive by Somali pirates was, at the time, not unusual for that part of the world - in the first nine months of 2010, nearly half of the recorded 290 piracy attacks worldwide were from Somalia. And then, it seemed, they disappeared for a long time - while 358 attacks were recorded from 2010-2015, only 8 were recorded from 2016-2022. In fact, “Somalia” and “piracy” were colloquially considered mutually inclusive in the early 2010s - enough to create a Tom Hanks film based on a true story about it.

Somali pirates hold rifles towards water cannons seeking to repel them. Source: CommercialRiskOnline

But how did this happen?

The first, and probably most straightforward reason, is that the international response was dramatically increased. The EU and NATO independently ran parallel missions in the Red Sea, as well as the deployment of vessels from India, China, Russia, South Korea, Japan, Malaysia, and Singapore. These countries held UN-approval to use “all necessary means” to repress piracy and maritime robbery.

Somalia itself also initiated efforts to enforce the law at its shoreline. The country re-strategised its national security approach using funds delivered by the UN to deal with the problem in August 2021. Organising a coalition of countries against pirate-linked terror groups, such as Al Shabaab, further helped to stabilise the country against the pirates’ base of support and foundational geography.

Finally, Somalia’s laws and legal “toolbox” to deal with pirates became much clearer, allowing courts to handle the cases with better guidance. President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud definitively identified Somalia’s maritime zones, and further preventing illegal foreign fishing from taking place - a trend frequently linked to piracy.

It does, however, appear that piracy may be making a comeback. In April 2024, Somali pirates successfully hijacked and ransomed off a Bangladeshi-flagged vessel for USD $5 million, though this could not be independently verified. Prior to this incident, more than 20 attempted hijackings (a number that rose to 30 by June 2024) had been made since November 2023, an undeniable spike in pirate activity. The diversion of naval forces to deal with strikes from Yemeni rebels and deterioration of Somalian domestic security doctrines as the military gets caught up dealing with separatist groups have meant that there has been little ability to deal with piracy. One thing is for certain though: a resurgence in piracy will further destabilise the Red Sea, and cost the global economy more than USD $7 million this time around.

TAI Score: Degree 3. Piracy itself won’t lead to catastrophic outcomes, but the security risk posed by it is enough to drive shipping insurance premiums significantly higher than normal. The impact on supply chains and military activity is clear - and may cause a near-shoring phenomenon for companies that simply do not want to deal with the threats posed by pirates in any part of the world.