Europe’s Last Dictatorship
It wasn’t particularly long ago that dictatorship in Europe was as much of a norm as democracy was. In 1989, the socialist, Soviet-backed (East) German Democratic Republic announced that its citizens were free to enter and leave West Germany, triggering the collapse of the Berlin Wall and, indirectly but eventually, the entire Soviet Union. Over the next two years, the Iron Curtain had all but disappeared as democratic norms mostly proliferated eastwards. Former Soviet or Soviet-aligned states such as Czechia, Hungary, and Romania joined NATO by 1999, Poland quickly established itself as a consolidated democracy, and Germany re-built itself as a single country. Even Russia, at the helm of the USSR, undertook a campaign of democratisation (with mixed results).
Belarus, however, has not seen the same efforts be made from the top, and is, for all intents and purposes, Europe’s last dictatorship.
Democracy reports on Belarus are concerning at best, and outright alarming at worst. Freedom House, which calculates a national freedom index based on how well a country meets the UN’s Universal Declaration of Human Rights, has assigned it a democracy score of merely 8 out of 100, placing it alongside countries such as China, Myanmar, and Libya. In fact, Belarus scored two points below Afghanistan, and merely five points higher than North Korea.
Lukashenko in 2020. Credit: BBC
Since Belarus gained independence in 1992, Aleksandr Lukashenko has been the country’s first - and only - president. During his past thirty years in office, Lukashenko has greatly resisted social, political, and economic reforms: so much so, that the current police force of Belarus is still, officially, the KGB. According to the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, this resistance comes from a combined refusal for Belarus to turn influentially toward the EU, and turn away from Russia. As a politician for Belarus’ Soviet government, Lukashenko further fears “rampant capitalism” privatising the country’s enterprises.
Belarus’ relationship with Russia is, furthermore, an unusual dynamic that warrants further speculation. The Union State of Russia and Belarus is an agreement that details military, economic, and political cooperation between the two countries. Although it hoped to further include a joint constitution, common energy markets, and a monetary union, many of these plans were never implemented, or removed shortly after introduction. According to Yauheniya Nechyparenka, this relationship has further stifled democratic shifts in Belarus. The mutual agreement of the Union State has provided Lukashenko preservation of his power, while Russia has been able to rely on a stable ally on its western border. A 1995 referendum further tied Belarus to Russia by adopting Russian as the state language, and changing national symbols (such as the flag and coat of arms) to only slightly modified Soviet iconography and insignias.
This is not to say, however, that democracy in Belarus is an impossibility. Pro-democracy protests in Belarus have taken place in 2010, 2015, 2017, and 2020, indicating that the momentum, and desire, for change seems to show no signs of slowing down. This most recent round of protests is perhaps the most significant one, as an overwhelming show of support for Lukashenko’s opposition ultimately resulted in his sudden receiving of 80% of the vote, indicated a clear divide between the Belarusian government and its people. At present, Belarusian people are even fighting against Russian troops in Ukraine - but whether this level of resistance will cause the downfall of Europe’s last dictator remains to be seen.
TAI Score: Degree 3. The lack of democracy in Belarus allows a masked outlet for illegal Russian activities to take place, as well as transnational crime from any number of actors. Suppression of human rights, falsification of electoral results, and the housing of Russian nuclear weaponry on its soil also indicate that both business and government leaders should exercise significant caution when approaching Belarus.
