Threat Assessment Index

SimpleNation’s Threat Assessment Index (TAI) evaluates the degree to which an observer, which may include governments, risk assessors, and open-source intelligence analysts, should take an issue as a warning to the world’s social, political, security, cyber, and/or economic landscape. In other words: on a scale of 0-5, how seriously should a geopolitical phenomenon be taken?

The TAI is categorised into six levels of severity:

Degree 0: The phenomenon is of no consequence. It likely needs minimal, if any, active monitoring, and its negative impact on the world stage is effectively none. It may even provide a positive outcome if maintained. Examples of this may include the Democratic Peace Theory.

Degree 1: The phenomenon is of minimal consequence. It is unlikely that the phenomenon has the capability to cause significant damage, but may inconvenience relevant actors. It will require minimal monitoring and/or maintenance. Examples of this may include North Sentinel Island.

Degree 2: The phenomenon is of minor severity. While it may serve to cause issues for relevant actors, its potential for long-lasting impact on regional systems is unlikely. Relevant actors should still monitor trends and respond accordingly. Examples of this may include the Mauritanian slave trade.

Degree 3: The phenomenon is of concern. Relevant actors may be moderately impacted if a solution or workaround is not established. If left unattended or unresolved, the phenomenon may cause noticeable damage to regional systems, with potential for a lasting impact. Constant monitoring should be maintained. Examples of this may include separatist movements in Georgia and Moldova.

Degree 4: The phenomenon is of considerable concern. Potential for lasting and significant damage by the phenomenon, if left unattended, is high. Relevant actors must work to address these issues in realistic ways to avoid considerable damage to global systems. Examples of this may include armed, resource-based conflict in Latin America.

Degree 5: The phenomenon poses a colossal threat to international systems. Failure to implement a lasting solution by relevant actors may yield catastrophic results. Constant and extensive monitoring of the situation must be upheld. Examples of this may include nuclear security on the Korean peninsula.

SimpleNation has added a TAI score to each of its Featured Articles, available here.