Global Security’s Last Frontier on Earth

The northernmost permanently inhabited town in the world is Alert, Canada. There’s not much there to speak of - it’s a weather monitoring station, observatory, and airstrip where temperatures routinely reach -37 degrees Celsius (-35 degrees Fahrenheit) in February. Maybe, then, it’s no wonder that less than 60 people live there at any given time.

An icebreaker, currently one of the only ships capable of travelling through the region, makes its way across the North Pole. Source: NOAA

And yet it serves a critical purpose to the Canadian government beyond monitoring Arctic weather patterns: the establishment of infrastructure there gives Canada sovereignty over part of the Arctic itself, which most of the worlds’ most powerful countries - plus a few others - are competing for. Russia planted its flag on the polar seabed in 2007 (perhaps understandably, given Russia’s enormous Arctic coastline), the US expanded its claims in 2023, and even Denmark has made claims through its autonomous region of Greenland. Even China, which has zero geographic areas bordering the Arctic, has defined itself a “Near-Arctic State” so as to justify significant amounts of investments, despite the term having no legitimacy in international law.

So what makes the Arctic, a place that has almost no population on what little land exists there, so valuable that major powers are beginning to diplomatically clash over it?

Fossil Fuels

If you’ve ever studied watched the news for more than the time it takes for you to finish reading this sentence, you’ll already know that these are one of the “usual suspects” when it comes to conflict. The US Geological Survey’s limited estimates anticipate there to be 90 billion barrels of oil, 44 billion barrels of natural gas liquids, and an almost unfathomable 1.67 trillion cubic feet of natural gas. This amounts to about 13% of the world’s undiscovered oil and 30% of its undiscovered natural gas. Although Canada and Denmark have placed banned new oil and gas extraction efforts of any kind (including exploration for new sources), environmental activists have taken Norway to court over concerns that seeking to drill in the Arctic would destabilise local ecosystems. Their concerns are valid - but it may destabilise international politics by an equal amount.

Trade Routes

Climate change is melting polar ice, which leads to both rising sea levels, and the opening of new trade routes throughout the Arctic. This may sound like a good thing, but ownership of Arctic trade routes is as valuable as their existence itself. Russian ownership of the newly established Northern Sea Route gives it legitimacy to use its ships to patrol and defend these trade avenues - and close them off to whomever they decide is no longer welcome to using it. These ports can additionally be quickly converted into military assets - perhaps not as effectively as those located in locations free from ice year-round, but effectively nonetheless.

It’s worth pointing out that the title of this article is very particular - given that if we can’t agree on the Earth’s last frontier in the Arctic because of oil and trade routes, we will certainly struggle to agree on humanity’s next frontier in space.

TAI Score: Degree 3. Competition over the Arctic is already beginning to escalate, before the area is even fully open to fossil fuel excavation and trade route establishment. The competition is additionally taking place between major powers, and goes well beyond a maritime boundary dispute. Careful diplomacy is needed today, to avoid reckless activity tomorrow.