Kurdistan
You’ve probably heard this name in the news before - more than a few times - without knowing where it is. I don’t blame you at all - it’s confusing when the name “Kurdistan” is usually mentioned at the same time as Turkey, Iraq, Iran, or Syria.
It certainly makes one wonder how a country can exist inside of four different countries, and at the same time, not at all.
Kurdistan's geography spans four different countries. Source: Encyclopedia Britannica
Kurds, have always lived in the region stretching from eastern Turkey to northwestern Iran. It has dealt with an enormous number of conquerors and invaders throughout history - including the Greeks, Arabs, Mongols, Turks, Persians, British, and Americans - contributing to the adage that Kurds have “no friends but the mountains” that have given them sanctuary across millennia.
The idea of a defined region named “Kurdistan” was originally established in Iraq in the 1970s, when a deal with Baghdad provided increased autonomy to ethnic Kurds living in the country’s north and northeast. It wasn’t long until they found themselves far less fortunate*: in 1973, Syrian Kurds found themselves weakened and displaced from resource-rich areas that Syrian Arabs wanted access to, Turkish Kurds were forced to scatter when a coup in Turkey turned on them, and the collapse of the aforementioned autonomy agreement in 1974 meant that even Iraqi Arabs no longer tolerated their community. To meet the goal of ethnic cleansing, a genocide known as the Anfal took place, which resulted in horrific atrocities and human rights violations.
The Iran-Iraq War and years following were perhaps the most brutal years that Kurdistan has faced to date. Caught in the middle of the Iranian Revolution, which the Iraqi government feared would spread to Baghdad and thus launched an invasion of Iran, the Iranian Kurds staged a revolt against the new government - which failed, and ended in the imprisonment, torture, and deaths for thousands of Kurds. All of this came after decades of separate guerrilla campaigns in Iraq, Iran, Turkey, and Syria were waged - and each failed.
Kurds do not have statehood despite being the fourth-largest ethnicity in the Middle East. Source: BBC
After the Gulf War of the 1990s, an alliance of Kurdish political parties formed and held democratic elections, despite having no country to lead. It even has it’s own defined (though unrecognised) borders, foreign policy, parliament, and military (known as the Peshmerga). The Peshmerga were also instrumental in helping to overthrow* Saddam Hussein alongside US forces in 2003. This was not, however, the end of their military history - the rise of the Islamic State ten years ago called the Peshmerga back into action against the terror group with international backing, with the EU, Russia, the US, Canada, UK, and Iran supporting them with military training, money, and hardware. Although ISIS was, and is, not fully defeated, Kurdish efforts cost the terror group 95% of its existing territory - including its “capitals” and largest cities by the end of 2017. Support for the Peshmerga remains ongoing - though the establishment of a Kurdish state seems as far away as ever.
TAI Score: Degree 2. Although an established, internationally recognised Kurdistan is not a threat in itself, and may actually be beneficial to US and European interests in the Middle East, it would prove extremely unpopular in Iraq, Iran, Syria, and Turkey. Historical animosity and complex relations throughout the already tense region would likely lead to increased conflict in a Middle East that is already facing plenty.
*Please be aware that this source contains graphic imagery. Viewer discretion is advised.
