The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022: What It Is, and What It Is Not
A building sustains heavy damage in Kyiv, Ukraine. Credit: Julia Rekamie
N.B.: For faster reading, a summary can be found at the bottom of the article.
On the February 24, 2022, the world was struck by an awful event: after weeks of military buildup on the border, Russia had in fact, contradicting all past statements made by the Kremlin, launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The invasion was initiated less than a day after the Russian government recognised the independence of the Donbas and Luhansk regions of eastern Ukraine, and at the time of writing this article, the conflict continues to be waged with little to no end in sight.
So, how did we get here? Why has Russia invaded Ukraine, what is the significance of the Donbas and Luhansk regions, and why does it all matter?
Some historians may tell you that the answer, like the answer to so many other contemporary issues, dates back to the Cold War. It could realistically be argued, however, that the real response actually goes back much further than that. In the past five centuries, Russia has been invaded from the west at least five times - by Poland, Sweden, France, and twice Germany. The reason for this is simple: Russia has no natural barriers - mountains, rivers, or deserts - on its western border. An invading force can easily move eastward across the European plain for as long as its supply lines can sustain it. In fact, As a result, it has always sought to surround itself with states friendly to Moscow to serve as a de facto buffer zone - through diplomacy or otherwise. This has been the case during the Imperial era, the Soviet era, and the post-Soviet era.
The goal of being surrounded by friendly states has been partially achieved by Russia. The Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) operates as a sort of post-Soviet Warsaw Pact (the alliance of communist nations during the Cold War), including Russia, Armenia, Belarus, and three Central Asian states (Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, and Kyrgyzstan) to guarantee mutual defence and regional security. A key example of the CSTO’s objective includes the deployment of troops to suppress riots in Kazakhstan at the beginning of 2022. With the exception of Belarus, however, these states all exist along or near Russia’s southwestern border in Central Asia, just north of Turkey and Iran.
With Belarus being the only consolidated pro-Moscow state in eastern Europe, however, Russia’s western border is relatively exposed. NATO - the mutual security alliance created during the Cold War - has now accepted members formerly part of the USSR, placing its influence closer to Russia itself. Established in 1949, NATO originally included the USA, Canada, and western European powers. As of 2022, it now includes Latvia, Czechia, Estonia, Bulgaria, North Macedonia, Albania, Hungary, Croatia, Lithuania, Poland, Montenegro, Slovakia, Slovenia, and Romania - all former Soviet (or Yugoslav) states. Bosnia and Georgia have also expressed interest. From a Russian point of view, NATO has expanded into its former territory and seized influence on countries that would have otherwise comprised the aforementioned buffer zone.
But NATO doesn’t “expand” in that way. Countries are not forced or coerced into the alliance - leaders are invited for talks at the organisation’s headquarters in Brussels, Belgium. Potential members are then required to write a letter of intent to join, at which point they must meet specified criteria in order to be accepted. The entire process is voluntary, and can be cancelled by the potential member at any time. NATO is not a unilateral organisation led by a single power that imposes influence on, or outright invades, a potential member state. Any country can join or leave as desired.
So what does this all have to do with Ukraine?
Ukraine directly borders Russia. Russia has unsuccessfully attempted to sway Ukraine before. Pro-Russian presidential candidates such as Yanukovych have been supported and elected, only to be overthrown before the end of his first term. As a result, Ukraine has been increasingly pro-EU in the past three decades. A partnership and co-operation agreement was signed between the EU and Ukraine as early as 1994 - merely three years after the dissolution of the Soviet Union. This has, needless to say, made Russia wary. A state directly on its border - which Moscow wants to serve as a buffer zone - has requested to join an organisation that its government sees as anti-Russian. Putin is seeing his buffer zone fading away, perceiving Russia as vulnerable to NATO and the EU - with Belarus as its only real ally left in Europe.
What the war is
The conflict in Ukraine is an attempt to turn the country away from NATO and the EU. This is so that Russia can maintain what it feels it needs - encirclement by friendly states that it can use to defend itself from western aggression through a denial of full autonomy and self-determination for eastern European nations to seek their own political identities and alignments. This is not a new phenomenon. This has happened under centuries of imperial rule and decades of Soviet ideology. Putin is fulfilling what he and those around him see as the country’s destiny and duty - an objective which must be met by any means necessary.
What the war is not
The war is not the outcome of NATO expansion. The treaty organisation has not swept through Europe, occupying former Soviet states to intimidate Moscow. The process of joining NATO is fully consensual and diplomatic for any country that desires it. The aggression showed towards Ukraine by Moscow is perhaps a perfect showcasing of why so many former Soviet states near Russia desire to be in a mutual defence treaty.
It is probably not, as so many have speculated, a result of Putin’s failing health. Rumors of his wellbeing have circulated for decades. In 2012, it was speculated that he had injured his back - which the Kremlin stated was due to an “ordinary sporting injury” after a hang-gliding accident. In 2015, a Kazakh government source claimed that Putin’s trip to Astana was cancelled due to his poor health, with his spokesman denying the statement, saying that “he has meetings all the time”. During the COVID-19 pandemic, meeting with Putin required a week of isolation in advance - for people including Olympians and veterans from the Second World War. His status has been under question for many years, and while he is turning 70 this year, it is still unclear if - or to what extent - he is sick, let alone if it is affecting the existence of the Ukraine conflict.
It is probably not a conflict over resources. While Ukraine is extremely natural resource rich - particularly in coal, fossil fuels, iron, manganese, and titanium. Ukraine is also a major exporter of wheat and corn, with over 18 million tonnes of wheat exported in 2020. However, Russia itself is rich in natural resources - perhaps unsurprising for the largest country on Earth. Major natural resources include cobalt, copper, lead, platinum, zinc, and more. Russia is also the largest exporter of wheat in the world, with over USD $1 billion sold in wheat exports alone.
TAI Score: Degree 5. The Russo-Ukrainian War is placing significant strains on international relations. At present, it is likely the greatest source of diplomatic conflict between Russia and the West, with both realms committing significant amount of materials (and the former committing significant amount of manpower) to achieving its aims. This is causing a large-scale fraction in the international system.
