The World’s Next Anticipated Country

Bougainville Island’s location in relation to the wider region. Source: Google Maps

In 2011, South Sudan officially voted to secure its independence from Sudan after years of a brutal civil war that concluded in 2005. The secession from Sudan marked the first universally recognised and accepted country to be newly founded since the end of the Cold War in 1991 - while others have attempted to secure internationally recognised status, areas such as Kosovo, Taiwan, and Palestine still have not gained undisputed diplomatic access that countries such as Canada, Brazil, or India hold.

However, South Sudan may be about to lose its title as the world’s youngest country - and its successor just might be located in the last place you would check. The country currently governing the next independence movement - Papua New Guinea - received less than 100,000 visitors in 2022, and less than 150,000 in 2023. It may be because of tribal violence keeping the country’s capital, Port Moresby, one of the most dangerous cities in the world - especially for women - with the highland areas no safer.

Bougainville is an autonomous island roughly 750 kilometres from the Papuan mainland. Less than 200,000 people live there, but in 2019, they voted to gain full independence in a referendum whose results have yet to manifest. Fed up with its enormous gold mine being used to prop up the economy of Papua New Guinea, which received 45% of its export finances from Bougainville’s gold alone, locals eventually decided that they would be better off independent.

Tensions began when, in 1988, the self-determination movement arose out of anger from environmental damage and land disputes. Papua New Guinea’s security response was heavy - perhaps understandable given the vast amounts of money flowing out of Bougainville - and quickly spiraled into the Pacific region’s deadliest conflict since the Second World War, killing 10% of Bougainville’s population in a single decade.

And yet, despite the results of the 2019 referendum being entirely conclusive - with 98% of voters favouring self-determination - Bougainville still hasn’t received independence as of April 1st, 2025. The Era Kone Covenant - which illustrates the roadmap for Papua New Guinea’s recognition of the referendum - requires a ratification from its government and endorsement of the referendum by 2023, to guarantee independence. Port Moresby, however, has yet to do so.

Toroama is confident that independence is inevitable. Source: The Guardian

James Marape, the president of Papua New Guinea, has concerns over Bougainville’s structural and economic capabilities, despite the territory drafting financial plans, electing chief tax collectors, and establishing judicial centres. Progress has, therefore, moved so slowly that New Zealand’s former Governor-General has been appointed to oversee the progress of the referendum’s implementation.

But the territory is re-entering the news, with the man expected to be its first president - Ishmael Toroama - announcing that the island’s independence movement has reached “the final 100 metres”. Toroama is certain that despite lapsed deadlines, broken promises, a lack of political will from Papua New Guinea, and other obstacles, Bougainville is set to be the world’s next newest country.

If successful, the island will have - in order - received independence from Britain, Australia, and Papua New Guinea.

TAI Score: Degree 2. It’s very unlikely that Bougainville’s independence movement will result in further violence - particularly with security forces in Papua New Guinea dealing with tribal warfare within their own borders. However, competition over the natural resources still in Bougainville can’t be fully ruled out - especially as competition between Australia and China intensifies in the region.