What If The US Declines?

Last week, SimpleNation looked at some of the key issues China is facing and speculated what would probably happen next if the country’s best days were discovered to be behind it. Through either a peaceful withdrawal and dialing back of foreign investment programmes, or a violent distraction to divert its population’s attention while securing valuable assets by force, we would definitely be aware of a hypothetical decline while it happened.

Now, it’s time to look at the other side of the question: what if the US declines?

On Sunday, November 24th 2024, The Telegraph published an opinion piece drawing parallels between Trump’s America and the fall of Rome. While the article itself is rather odd, exploring the idea through (of all things) the lens of the new Gladiator film, it does bring up a highly salient point: that the US is “dominated by a handful of patrician families” that seize power to stay out of the judicial system’s wrath while social movements seek to abandon foundational principles and commit “cultural suicide”.

So what happens if the era of American “exceptionalism” ends?

Status Quo, At All Costs

USAID projects assist with agricultural development in Pakistan. Source: USAID Archive

It’s unclear what this would look like for the simple reason that there’s no precedent for it. What it would probably indicate is a less peaceful situation in which the US becomes far more aggressive in key conflict hotspots: increased funding and active support for Israel, Taiwan, the Philippines, and Ukraine. Red lines would be possibly drawn and backed up by the US military itself. We would probably notice if this happened - the tricky part is determining where it would happen first.

There might also be ramped up spending for US-led international institutions. The World Bank and IMF, as well as the country’s own USAID, might see more soft power projection take place to influence countries and partners without resorting to violence. Truthfully, this is the best case scenario at this time. Knowing Trump however, it’s also probably the least likely scenario.

Conservative Isolationism

As of November 2024, this seems like the more likely candidate of the two. The incoming Trump administration is seeking ways to quickly wrap up the wars in Ukraine and Gaza, threatened trade wars on China to bring manufacturing back to the US, and even economic consequences for Canada and Mexico if the two countries don’t do more to address illegal immigration and drug trafficking.

In blue: countries that received US defence aid within the past two years. In yellow: countries that house US military bases. Striped: countries with US military bases, that receive defence aid within the past two years. 

It’s possible that the US ends up partially sanctioning itself after a certain point, all in an effort to on-shore jobs and industries, leaving an economic vacuum behind.

That vacuum would almost certainly be seized upon by the US’ rivals. Russia would likely expand influence into Europe again through fossil fuel sales, and China’s Belt and Road would expand well beyond its current capacity. Countries in Europe and Asia that currently rely on US defence support would be forced to follow along with the administration’s red lines, most likely spending a pre-determined amount of their own GDP on self-defence first. Other countries would likely turn to their regional powers - Bangladesh to India, Uruguay to Brazil, and the Philippines to Japan or Indonesia. It might make America more self-preserving and wealthy - but the rest of the world would need many years, at least, to adjust.

TAI Score: Degree 4. Depending on the methods, the outcome of a declining US could range anywhere from a peaceful transition to a new hegemon (probably China) to a complete and utter disaster. The country’s deep, deep entrenchment in global society and international economics means that there would very likely be a less-than-smooth decline for nearly every country on Earth. Even the US’ rivals would feel the impact financially, if not in every other sector of society as well.