Will Britain Be Democratically Alone?
There’s been quite a turnaround from nearly ten years ago.
In July the Brexit referendum shocked the world by being publicly approved, which (arguably) signaled the beginning of political chaos in Westminster - with five Prime Ministers holding office in eight years, including one that lasted less than two months in office. Meanwhile, in the rest of Europe, politics had been largely holding steady. In France, the 2012 elections resulted in more than half of all votes going to Hollande and Sarkozy, two largely centrist candidates. Germany’s federal elections in 2013 resulted in approximately two-thirds of the Bundestag’s seats going to centre and centre-left parties, the Dutch elections in 2017 went to the incumbent’s centre-right party, and centre-right coalitions secured their leadership bids in Spain and Italy in 2015 and 2018, respectively.
Sir Keir Starmer’s victory in the last general election led to a change in British leadership for the first time in over a decade. Source: Encyclopedia Britannica
In fact, during the last decade, the only country other than Britain to shift to the right in a major and unanticipated way was the United States, which saw the election of Donald Trump in 2016.
This decade looks quite different, however.
The result of this past July’s general election in the UK were a relief to many, but a surprise to few. On July 3rd, one day before voters headed to the polls, the UK’s Labour Party was estimated to be a staggering 18 points ahead of the Conservative Party - which was, in reality, a decrease from October when Labour led in the polls by an astonishing 31 points. A very clear and decisive shift has taken place in British politics that has taken us back to the centre-left after 14 years of perceived disorganisation from the Conservative Party.
In the rest of Europe, however, there has been an undeniable shift to the right. Germany’s right-wing AfD party has come second in the country’s European parliament elections, the right-wing National Rally has made record-breaking gains in France, Geert Wilders has become one of the most powerful politicians in the Netherlands, and elections in 2022 voted a right-wing parties into power in Italy and Sweden. In several EU countries, this is explained by factors including (but neither universal nor limited to) concerns over migration, economics, better organisation of right- and far-right parties, and gradual normalisation of their ideologies through the mainstream’s adoption of ideas or partnership with them directly. This is occurring at the same time as the US presidential election campaign, which is facing similar outcomes for similar reasons. Election polls on the other side of the Atlantic show a currently neck-and-neck result.
Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella lead France’s right-wing National Assembly party. Bardella is only 28 years old. Source: Associated Press
Ultimately, this shows a striking phenomenon: almost ten years ago, Britain and the USA shifted to the right while the rest of Europe held onto centrist ideals. Now, Britain has shifted left while Europe moves to the right. Ultimately, we will need to wait and see if the USA shifts back to the right again as well - leaving Britain as the most major centre-left power in the West.
TAI Score: Degree 3. While the election of right-wing parties throughout the West is not in itself a significant threat, the implications beyond this shift may hold a much more serious outcome. Funding for projects such as solutions to climate change and the responsible handling of human rights in questions of irregular migration patterns may become subject to risk. Perhaps more significantly, security matters - such as ongoing support for Ukraine - may find themselves vulnerable. Key decision makers will need to remain aware of political shifts in Europe and the United States, and plan accordingly.
