Will Myanmar Collapse?
On August 1st, 2022, SimpleNation published an article asking why democracy has failed in Myanmar so many times.
The short answer is that in a moment of desperation immediately after securing independence from the British, the military (or Tatmadaw) seized the reins of power to quickly put down a series of ethnic rebellions and sort out economic turmoil without needing to slowly deliberate through parliamentary proceedings. The problem is, the Tatmadaw never really gave up power - and for many years, the largest opposition party (the USDP) was openly aligned with the military. So, when their mass unpopularity in several consecutive elections made it easy for the pro-democracy party to erode their power, the military quite simply overthrew them on February 1st, 2021. Myanmar has been embroiled in a horrific civil war ever since.
Whether or not Myanmar can survive as a single country is open to speculation. Throughout the more remote parts of the country, the junta government is rapidly losing control of entire provinces - the two most significant (but by no means only) of which are listed below.
Rakhine state
Despite looking like a professional military, the Arakan Army is an anti-junta rebel force. Source: The Irrawaddy.
Located in the country’s southwest, Rakhine is notorious for the military’s mass killings of ethnic Rohingyas prior to the 2021 coup. Many of these communities have fled to neighbouring Bangladesh where they live in refugee camps around Cox’s Bazar. The Arakan Army, Rakhine’s most powerful rebel group, have secured vast swaths of land, seizing military bases, civilian airports, and entire towns. In fact, the rebel group is so secured in much of the province, they are able to run an entire standardised education system using schools in towns captured from the Tatmadaw. Many in Rakhine state contend, however, that tactics used by the Arakan Army are no less brutal than the Tatmadaw’s, which will cause issues if the now-autonomous region wants to gain international recognition - and work with countries like India and Bangladesh to begin trade, diplomacy, and the repatriation of nearly 1 million refugees.
Kachin state
Ground-level photography shows a China-Myanmar border crossing in Kachin state. Source: Khin Kyaw Nyo
The Kachin Independence Army (KIA), the largest rebel group in Kachin state to the country’s far north, initially remained neutral following the coup. In fact, it took a full month before fighting resumed, when the Tatmadaw attacked a KIA base. The KIA is far older than the 2021 coup, however, and actually dates back to the 1960s, when the country’s first coup witnessed a situation extremely similar to the one from three years ago.
By the end of 2021, the KIA had become aligned with other rebel groups due to a united desire to see the Tatmadaw overthrown. The KIA has especially drawn attention due to its seizure of military bases in the northern Kachin and Shan states, where rare earth materials are often extracted. This has drawn significant attention from China, with whom Kachin state shares a border, across which a significant amount of trade is conducted.
Will Myanmar collapse?
Probably not. After fighting together against the military, many of these rebel groups have formed agreements, such as the Three Brothers Alliance, and made an entire parallel shadow government that exists in direct opposition to the Tatmadaw. The framework for a new, democratic Myanmar certainly exists internally.
Externally, no other country wants to see Myanmar collapse either. China holds an enormous amount of financial investments in Myanmar, and would not benefit from added chaos. Nor would neighbouring countries, which would face a colossal refugee crisis - which, as previously mentioned, Bangladesh already is. The desire to not see a fractured Myanmar doesn’t really exist anywhere, and doesn’t really have anything pointing to it happening.
TAI Score: Degree 3. The current situation in Myanmar is utterly dreadful, with attacks on civilians occurring almost daily. A collapsed, fractured Myanmar would likely send ripples throughout East and Southeast Asia, with a near-double digit number of countries almost certain to face the direct consequences of such an event. While we should be thankful that this outcome is not on the horizon, we should still hope for peace there soon - though it does not appear to be on the horizon either.
