The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022: What It Is, and What It Is Not
A building sustains heavy damage in Kyiv, Ukraine. Credit: Julia Rekamie
N.B.: For faster reading, a summary can be found at the bottom of the article.
On the February 24, 2022, the world was struck by an awful event: after weeks of military buildup on the border, Russia had in fact, contradicting all past statements made by the Kremlin, launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The invasion was initiated less than a day after the Russian government recognised the independence of the Donbas and Luhansk regions of eastern Ukraine, and at the time of writing this article, the conflict continues to be waged with little to no end in sight.
So, how did we get here? Why has Russia invaded Ukraine, what is the significance of the Donbas and Luhansk regions, and why does it all matter?
Some historians may tell you that the answer, like the answer to so many other contemporary issues, dates back to the Cold War. It could realistically be argued, however, that the real response actually goes back much further than that. In the past five centuries, Russia has been invaded from the west at least five times - by Poland, Sweden, France, and twice Germany. The reason for this is simple: Russia has no natural barriers - mountains, rivers, or deserts - on its western border. An invading force can easily move eastward across the European plain for as long as its supply lines can sustain it. In fact, As a result, it has always sought to surround itself with states friendly to Moscow to serve as a de facto buffer zone - through diplomacy or otherwise. This has been the case during the Imperial era, the Soviet era, and the post-Soviet era.
The goal of being surrounded by friendly states has been partially achieved by Russia. The Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) operates as a sort of post-Soviet Warsaw Pact (the alliance of communist nations during the Cold War), including Russia, Armenia, Belarus, and three Central Asian states (Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, and Kyrgyzstan) to guarantee mutual defence and regional security. A key example of the CSTO’s objective includes the deployment of troops to suppress riots in Kazakhstan at the beginning of 2022. With the exception of Belarus, however, these states all exist along or near Russia’s southwestern border in Central Asia, just north of Turkey and Iran.
With Belarus being the only consolidated pro-Moscow state in eastern Europe, however, Russia’s western border is relatively exposed. NATO - the mutual security alliance created during the Cold War - has now accepted members formerly part of the USSR, placing its influence closer to Russia itself. Established in 1949, NATO originally included the USA, Canada, and western European powers. As of 2022, it now includes Latvia, Czechia, Estonia, Bulgaria, North Macedonia, Albania, Hungary, Croatia, Lithuania, Poland, Montenegro, Slovakia, Slovenia, and Romania - all former Soviet (or Yugoslav) states. Bosnia and Georgia have also expressed interest. From a Russian point of view, NATO has expanded into its former territory and seized influence on countries that would have otherwise comprised the aforementioned buffer zone.
But NATO doesn’t “expand” in that way. Countries are not forced or coerced into the alliance - leaders are invited for talks at the organisation’s headquarters in Brussels, Belgium. Potential members are then required to write a letter of intent to join, at which point they must meet specified criteria in order to be accepted. The entire process is voluntary, and can be cancelled by the potential member at any time. NATO is not a unilateral organisation led by a single power that imposes influence on, or outright invades, a potential member state. Any country can join or leave as desired.
So what does this all have to do with Ukraine?
Ukraine directly borders Russia. Russia has unsuccessfully attempted to sway Ukraine before. Pro-Russian presidential candidates such as Yanukovych have been supported and elected, only to be overthrown before the end of his first term. As a result, Ukraine has been increasingly pro-EU in the past three decades. A partnership and co-operation agreement was signed between the EU and Ukraine as early as 1994 - merely three years after the dissolution of the Soviet Union. This has, needless to say, made Russia wary. A state directly on its border - which Moscow wants to serve as a buffer zone - has requested to join an organisation that its government sees as anti-Russian. Putin is seeing his buffer zone fading away, perceiving Russia as vulnerable to NATO and the EU - with Belarus as its only real ally left in Europe.
What the war is
The conflict in Ukraine is an attempt to turn the country away from NATO and the EU. This is so that Russia can maintain what it feels it needs - encirclement by friendly states that it can use to defend itself from western aggression through a denial of full autonomy and self-determination for eastern European nations to seek their own political identities and alignments. This is not a new phenomenon. This has happened under centuries of imperial rule and decades of Soviet ideology. Putin is fulfilling what he and those around him see as the country’s destiny and duty - an objective which must be met by any means necessary.
What the war is not
The war is not the outcome of NATO expansion. The treaty organisation has not swept through Europe, occupying former Soviet states to intimidate Moscow. The process of joining NATO is fully consensual and diplomatic for any country that desires it. The aggression showed towards Ukraine by Moscow is perhaps a perfect showcasing of why so many former Soviet states near Russia desire to be in a mutual defence treaty.
It is probably not, as so many have speculated, a result of Putin’s failing health. Rumors of his wellbeing have circulated for decades. In 2012, it was speculated that he had injured his back - which the Kremlin stated was due to an “ordinary sporting injury” after a hang-gliding accident. In 2015, a Kazakh government source claimed that Putin’s trip to Astana was cancelled due to his poor health, with his spokesman denying the statement, saying that “he has meetings all the time”. During the COVID-19 pandemic, meeting with Putin required a week of isolation in advance - for people including Olympians and veterans from the Second World War. His status has been under question for many years, and while he is turning 70 this year, it is still unclear if - or to what extent - he is sick, let alone if it is affecting the existence of the Ukraine conflict.
It is probably not a conflict over resources. While Ukraine is extremely natural resource rich - particularly in coal, fossil fuels, iron, manganese, and titanium. Ukraine is also a major exporter of wheat and corn, with over 18 million tonnes of wheat exported in 2020. However, Russia itself is rich in natural resources - perhaps unsurprising for the largest country on Earth. Major natural resources include cobalt, copper, lead, platinum, zinc, and more. Russia is also the largest exporter of wheat in the world, with over USD $1 billion sold in wheat exports alone.
TAI Score: Degree 5. The Russo-Ukrainian War is placing significant strains on international relations. At present, it is likely the greatest source of diplomatic conflict between Russia and the West, with both realms committing significant amount of materials (and the former committing significant amount of manpower) to achieving its aims. This is causing a large-scale fraction in the international system.
Jamaica
Fast Facts
Jamaican national flag
Location: Caribbean Islands
Capital: Kingston
Population: 2.96 million (2020)
Government Type: Parliamentary Democracy
Language: English
Climate: Tropical Rainforest
Gross Domestic Product: USD $25.89 billion
Human Development Index: 0.734 (High, 2019)
Overview
This is a country which, despite its size and relatively small population, everyone has heard of. Everyone knows about Jamaican reggae music, which has been popularised throughout the world thanks to the fame of individuals such as Bob Marley. In 2021, the country hosted over 1.5 million overnight tourists - nearly one visitor for every two local residents. It’s no secret that Jamaica is a celebrated nation that people are keen to visit - but what are some of the less known aspects of the country that the tourism industry may not show - intentionally or otherwise?
History
Jamaica’s colonial flag under British rule
Jamaica’s history is as long as any other country’s. Prior to the arrival of Europeans, the island was populated by a group of indigenous peoples known as the Taino. Jamaica then came under the control of Spain, to be populated by slaves, before being conquered by Great Britain and renamed Jamaica. The colony served as a major exporter for sugar, like many of its neighbors in the Caribbean, and in an effort to drive out Spanish influence, the British hired pirates as mercenaries (known as privateers) to harass and steal from Spanish ships in the 17th and 18th centuries. By the mid 19th century however, the growth of other industries and abolition of slavery in the empire made the sugar industry less competitive, and allowed room for more social freedoms in Jamaica. By the early 1900s, nationalist movements led by Marcus Garvey had led to the sufficient (if forced) expansion of civil rights to the establishment of a full internal democracy, with independence being formally recognised by Great Britain in 1962 as part of the global decolonisation movement. Queen Elizabeth II retains a ceremonial Head of State title in Jamaica, as with many other Commonwealth states.
Economy
At a glance, the country’s economy is unstable. The GDP growth trends are in a state of constant flux. In the space of one year alone (1972-73), the economy’s growth rate fell by an astonishing 23.5% due to a slowdown in the global economy, causing a further knock-on effect of a decline in tourism to Jamaica. Major aluminum producers also left the country, leading the government to foster the growth of small business and private enterprises instead. Another crash occurred in the 1990s caused by financial issues and a severe drought, and another in 2020, likely due to the extreme impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the tourism industry and global economy writ large.
Tourism - and its Implications Beyond the Beach Resorts
Credit: Eduardo Velazco Guart
As mentioned within the Overview, Jamaica is an overwhelmingly popular tourism destination for over one million people per year. In times of socio-economic stability, tourism can be (and is) an excellent boost to an economy - whether it applies to a developing economy or not. Specifically within the Caribbean, the tourism industry accounts for as much as over 70% of the GDP of some countries. But although the Jamaican economy isn’t completely vulnerable to price fluctuations on a single or small number of natural resources (as many countries, especially developing ones, are), the country’s dependence on the tourism industry leads to severe economic issues in times of crisis, as holidays abroad are often one of the first things cancelled when budgets are tightened. Forbes also points out that the environmental impact of tourism on these islands - Jamaica included - can account for as much as 97% of total emissions from smaller regional nations such as Dominica, with many of these emissions coming from hotels and air travel specifically.
Trivia
Jamaica’s national flag is the only one in the world to not contain the colours red, white, or blue.
One third of all Jamaicans live within Kingston, the capital city
Sir Ian Fleming wrote all of his James Bond novels while living in Jamaica
Indonesia
Fast Facts
Location: Southeast Asia, Oceania
Capital: Jakarta
Population: 273.5 million (2020)
Government Type: Constitutional Republic
Language: Bahasa Indonesian (with hundreds of other dialects)
Climate: Tropical rainforest (with variation)
Gross Domestic Product: USD $1.058 trillion (2020)
Human Development Index Rating: 0.718
Overview
For a country of its geographical and population size, we rarely hear about Indonesia in the western world. Which is strange, because by international standards, Indonesia is vast. Although it is located entirely outside of the Middle East, Indonesia is the world’s largest majority Muslim nation. There are so many islands making up this archipelagic nation that nobody - internally or externally - is actually certain how many there are exactly, though efforts to count them all just recently began, and estimates run at over 17,000 (with about one third of them fully inhabited). The Indonesian Embassy to the United States identifies that there are over 300 ethnic groups inhabiting these islands, who speak over 700 different languages and dialects. Just recently, Indonesia launched its first “unicorn” - a company named GoTo with an Initial Public Offering of over USD $1 billion. Needless to say, the country’s future seems like there is room for endless optimism. But is everything as positive as it seems?
History
Pura Ulun Danu Bratan temple near Bali, Indonesia. Credit: Kharl Anthony Paica
The earliest dated human remains in Indonesia date back 1.7 million years ago to the era of the Homo Erectus, when land bridges still connected the scattered islands of the country. Since then, the sea that rose out of the post-glacial era has (perhaps unsurprisingly) greatly influenced Indonesia’s history. Maritime trade networks with India, China, and other nearby powers began around 400 CE. These trade routes initially introduced Buddhism and Hinduism, and later Islam, to the islands. The Majapahit Empire, Southeast Asia’s largest empire, was formed in 1293 and established a legacy of arts, culture, architecture, and political power that was (loosely) centered on the island of Java, where the capital city of Jakarta is currently located. Its imperial colours of red and white also serve as inspiration for the modern Indonesian flag. By the 17th century, Indonesia had been colonised by the Dutch East India Company (and later the Dutch government itself), serving as a colony exploited for indigo, spices, cloth, and other natural resources. As with many other colonial states, independence was secured shortly after the conclusion of the Second World War. Sukarno, the country’s first president, was an advocate for the Non-Aligned Movement, which promoted the idea that postcolonial states should fall into the political sphere of neither the USA nor USSR during the Cold War. Sukarno was not, however, an advocate for open democracy - but rather a “guided democracy” in which he held direct control over an elected parliament. His deposition in 1965 by Suharto, a top-ranking military general, led to an era of restrictive democracy that lasted until 1998 - when flagrant corruption scandals combined with a severe Asian financial crisis led to widespread unrest and his formal resignation. Since then, democracy has been fully stable in the Indonesian archipelago.
Economy
Indonesia is Southeast Asia’s largest economy, with the World Bank reporting that national poverty had been cut in half since 1999 (one year after the financial crisis and Suharto’s resignation mentioned above) until the COVID-19 pandemic occurred. The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) points out that Indonesia’s economy is estimated to strengthen to a 4.7% GDP growth rate in 2022 and 2023 - a hugely significant growth rate by international standards - as exports increase and tourism restarts. As considerable as this growth is, however, Indonesia still faces issues with widespread poverty, corruption, inadequate infrastructure, and an unequal distribution of resources. Approximately 10% of people - or roughly 27 million - live beneath the poverty line. Furthermore, Indonesia’s exports highly consist of natural resources (fossil fuels, minerals, and rubber products in particular), leaving the country’s economy vulnerable to fluctuations in prices on global markets. With less than 20% of the national GDP coming from the export of goods, however, the economy is able to weather these market shocks better than a majority of developing nations with a similar economic composition.
Indonesia and The Natural World
Three people ride bicycles near Kebumen, Indonesia. Credit: Dikaseva
Indonesia’s natural assets are, like many other facets of the country, enormous. There are over 240 million acres of natural rainforest across the archipelago. 10% of the world’s known plant species, 12% of its known mammal species, and 17% of its known bird species exist within these rainforests, despite containing just 1% of the Earth’s land area. These figures, it should be noted, also do not include undiscovered species - which the Ministry of the Environment believe to be up to half of all species present within Indonesia. The country’s biodiversity is astounding, but under direct threat. From 2001-2016, 40% of deforestation in Indonesia took place as a result of the timber and palm oil industries alone. This rate of deforestation places Indonesia at the world’s third highest ranking, behind only Brazil and the Democratic Republic of Congo.
Furthermore, Indonesia has 127 active volcanoes, frequent earthquakes, and a history of tsunami occurrences. Combined with deforestation and land erosion, torrential seasonal rains (monsoons) can also cause an increase in deadly landslides, with over 1,300 taking place in 2021 alone. These natural disasters alone are enough to destabilise and even destroy communities - especially when emergency aid cannot be easily delivered across a wide archipelago. Improvements in infrastructure would, therefore, not only support an already growing economy, but also help to save more lives, faster.
Trivia
Indonesia has the world’s largest youth population, with 165 million people under the age of 30.
Indonesia and Monaco technically share a flag - the only observable difference being that Indonesia’s is slightly wider.
Every citizen in Indonesia must officially subscribe to one of six religions, and interfaith marriage is banned unless one person converts. The six permitted religions are Islam, Buddhism, Hinduism, Confucianism, Catholicism, and Protestantism. They do not need to formally practice these religions, however.
President Suharto is recorded as the most corrupt leader in history, with an estimated USD $15 billion to USD $35 billion embezzled during his 31 years in office.
