Brazil

Fast Facts

Location: Latin America

Capital: Brasilia

Population: 215.8 million (2022)

Government Type: Democratic federative republic

Language: Portuguese

Climate: Humid tropical/subtropical (with an arid region in the northeast)

GDP: USD $1.61 trillion (2021)

Human Development Index Ranking: 0.765 (Moderate-High)

Overview

Brazil is an enormous country that dominates much of the Latin American continent. It boasts the continent’s largest economy, its largest population, its largest geographic size, its second largest tourist population (behind only Argentina), and the world’s third largest agricultural production rate (behind only the United States and China). Brazil is a hugely important and impressive country in nearly every regard - but internal problems persist nevertheless. Deforestation due to the expansion of agriculture and livestock is significant, corruption remains a concern across nearly all public services, and crime rates remain high. It is, therefore, extremely difficult to make any generalisations about Brazil - but one can certainly state that it is a country of both enormous successes, and equally enormous difficulties.

History

A Romantic depiction of the first Portuguese landing in Brazil. Credit: SciHi.org

The pre-colonial history of Brazil is poorly understood due to the lack of a centralised civilisation in the area, leaving few archaeological discoveries, but by the arrival of Portuguese Europeans in the 1500s, it is estimated that there existed about 1000 different tribes totaling somewhere between 2 and 6 million people. The first permanent Portuguese settlement, created for the ability to harvest sugarcane and brazilwood for dyes, was established near modern-day Sao Paulo in 1532, with the first national capital (Salvador) settled 17 years later. As a Portuguese colony, and even after independence in 1822, Brazil was the epicenter of the slave trade, with an estimated 4 million Africans being sent there over the course of 300 years (accounting for approximately one-third of all slaves, more than any other country in the Americas). Brazil was the last country to abolish slavery, doing so in 1888, though many Brazilians had already decided to liberate their slaves on their own beforehand, due to the modernisation of agriculture and increasing urbanisation, leaving little purpose in retaining the practice of rural, agrarian slavery.

Towards the end of the 19th century, a military coup, led by Deodoro da Fonseca, overthrew the Brazilian monarchy, establishing the new federative republic and drafting a new constitution modeled after that of the United States’. Under this constitution, however, democracy was not completely guaranteed - while the country’s “Coffee Presidents” (so-called because of their origins from coffee-rich provinces) oversaw peace and stability, they were also indirectly responsible for election fraud and the ability for only wealthy landowners to vote. By 1929, the effects of the Great Depression caused demand for coffee to plummet, leading to widespread unrest throughout Brazil, ending with the army installing Getulio Vargas - a dictator - as president in 1937. Despite ruling as an autocrat, Vargas aligned Brazil with the Allies during WWII, making it the only South American nation to join the Allies and send forces to the European theatre of war.

15 years after the German defeat, Vargas was no longer the Brazilian dictator, and the country had entered a reasonably long period of democracy. Three publicly elected presidents had served terms (of varying length), and the capital had been moved to the newly founded Brasilia. But the economy had been faltering, causing mass inequality over a prolonged period of time, and anti-communist sentiment had existed for long enough for the army to stage another coup d’etat and seize control. Although democracy was crushed and censorship became rife, it was during this period that Brazil’s “economic miracle” occurred. Efforts to attract foreign direct investment meant that exports expanded in both diversity and amount, public infrastructure developments took place, and GDP began growing by 11% annually. But the striking of workers in Sao Paulo allowing for the restoration of trade unions, the allowance of political parties, and the election of Tancredo Neves (who died before taking office) signaled the end of Brazil’s military rule.

Economy

Brazil has the world’s eighth largest economy in the world, with approximately 75% of GDP being generated by the services sector - an indication of a highly developed economic landscape. Major exports of Brazil include soybeans, iron ore, crude petroleum, and beef to the world’s largest markets (mainly China, Canada, Argentina, and the US), while imports consist largely of medical equipment, automotive machinery, and advanced electronics.

Despite being largely unaffected by the 2008 financial crisis, Brazil’s economy was hit by a serious recession - the country’s worst ever - in the mid 2010’s, with GDP shrinking by 3% for the first three quarters of 2015. In fact, the national GDP of Brazil still has not returned to its peak of USD $2.62 trillion in 2011. The recession was caused by falls in Brazil’s main export commodity prices, inflation mismanagement, and a lack of investment in the state-owned Petrobras oil company.

The economy has begun to recover from the additional effects of COVID-19, which has also badly affected the country, but any hopes for another Brazilian economic miracle like that of the 1970s do not appear to be on the horizon - yet.

Deforestation: Just How Severe Is It, and What is Being Done About It?

Credit: Reuters, via BBC

Brazil’s largest environmental issue has been a widespread problem for decades. Losses of trees and biodiversity in the Amazon rainforest have accelerated under President Jair Bolsonaro, who has encouraged the expansion of agricultural and mining activities in the area, sending deforestation rates to a 12-year high in 2020. The Amazon Aid Foundation identifies a number of negative effects from the destruction of the rainforest, including the disruption of livelihood for indigenous peoples, increased pollution, and more.

Fortunately, the situation is not entirely bleak. In 2004, Brazil introduced its Action Plan for the Prevention and Control of Deforestation of the Amazon. Prior to the implementation of this plan, the Amazon’s deforestation rate stood at 27,700 square kilometers per year - a number which decreased to 4,500 square kilometers per year by 2012. Furthermore, in April 2021, nine corporate giants and three national governments (the USA, UK, and Norway) joined forces to raise over USD $1 billion to protect the forest and accelerate sustainable development. USAID in Brazil also seeks to ensure that economic development is carried out in the most vulnerable communities, in order to reduce the need for agriculture-based land clearing. But the rainforest’s fate will be greatly, and likely, ultimately, determined by the results of Brazil’s 2023 presidential election, as the foreign minister of the current president has stated that “there is no climate crisis”, and Bolsonaro himself has implicitly rallied against environmental protection efforts.

Trivia

-Brazil shares a border with every South American country, except for Ecuador and Chile.

-Due to French Guyana being formal French territory, France’s longest international border is with Brazil, rather than any European county.

-20 miles off of the coast of Sao Paulo lies an island that is strictly forbidden to access without permission from the Brazilian navy, due to it being home to an enormous amount of extremely venomous snakes - an estimated 1 per square meter.

-Commentors during WWII stated that “One would be more likely to see a smoking snake, than a Brazilian fighting force in Europe”. When Brazil entered the war as part of the Allies, the expeditionary force chose a cobra with a cigar as their identifying patch.

The World’s Last Divided Capital

Older readers likely remember when the Berlin Wall finally fell in 1989, signalling the de facto conclusion of the fifty-year long Cold War. Famous photographs and videos exist of Germans taking to the streets of Berlin and physically tearing the wall down to be re-united with friends, families, and countrymen. Although fragments of the Wall remain, in both personal collections and in central Berlin, its purpose has (much like the Wall itself) been shattered.

But there is still a city which has not yet been as fortunate as Berlin.

A map shows the current demarcation lines between Cyprus and the area invaded by Turkey. Credit: New World Encyclopedia

Nicosia lies in central Cyprus, just south of the Kyrenia Range mountains. Its 200,000 people live in a strange reality: the city is the world’s last divided capital. Across the island, and directly through Nicosia, stretches a UN buffer zone, also known as the “Green Line”, that keeps two opposing sides of an armed conflict apart. Curiously, however, it wasn’t the result of a civil war - it was actually a full-scale invasion by Turkey that took place.

In the mid-1950’s Cyprus existed as a British colony consisting of both an ethnic Greek majority, and ethnic Turkish minority, Cypriots. The island’s independence came when demonstrations against British colonial rule turned violent - with a series of bombing attacks and riots, lasting for approximately two years, eventually leading to an agreement being reached that declared Cyprus an independent republic (though two British military bases remain).

But independence was not the only goal of the Cypriot population. Enosis, or the incorporation of Cyprus as a part of Greece, had been deeply ingrained into the movement of the pro-independence population - even after its leader, the later president Makarios, dropped it from negotiations with the British. By 1974, a coup d’etat in Athens, Greece, placed a fiercely anti-communist and former Cypriot National Guard military leader (Dimitrios Ioannides) in power. Ioannides held close suspicions of Makarios due to his left-wing support in Cyprus and visits to the capitals of communist nations. Under the instruction of Greek military officers, the Cypriot national guard staged their own coup, overthrowing Makarios and seeking to establish enosis under Nikos Sampson, the new president of Cyprus.

To the north, the Turkish government found itself unhappy with the events unfolding in Cyprus. In their eyes, the Turkish minority of Cyprus were being oppressed under a military junta that was forcing them to be a part of a nation they held no allegiance to. Turkish government sources state that Turkish Cypriots were even forced from their homes into refugee camps and forced to survive in a state of violence they were unable to influence the outcome of.

Turkish troops make landfall in Cyprus. Credit: Lobby for Cyprus

Merely five days after Nikos Sampson took office, the Turkish military invaded the northern coast of Cyprus, conquering a mere 3% of the island before agreeing to a ceasefire organised by the UN Security Council. But this ceasefire was short-lived. One month later, by as early as the second round of negotiations, the Turkish military had gone back on the offensive, advancing to claim nearly 40% of the island. The newly drafted ceasefire reflects the current UN-defined and enforced Green Line that runs through Nicosia. The Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus was later declared as a sovereign state, though it is recognised by no UN member state aside from Turkey.

To this day, UN forces remain in Cyprus to enforce the ceasefire line, which continues to leave Nicosia as the world’s last divided capital city. The future for this city - and entire island - are not clear. Although little progress has been made to reunify, and remove Turkish troops from the island, relations have slowly improved over time. Humanitarian aid has been allowed to be carried out, and in 2008, more border crossing points were opened by both parties. But with the ever-uncertain nature of Turkish politics, it' remains to be seen what happens with the diplomatic Rubik’s cube that is modern Nicosia.

TAI Score: Degree 2. While the situation has changed little since 1974, so has the emergence of its solution. The island remains divided and a source of tension between two NATO allies. The increasingly authoritarian rule of Erdogan has done little to remedy the situation. While the growth of tensions is currently not on the horizon, risk assessors should remain wary and vigilant.

Ethiopia

Fast Facts

Location: East Africa

Capital: Addis Ababa

Population: 118 million (2021)

Government Type: Federal Republic

Language: Amharic, local dialects and languages

Climate: High variation (equatorial rainforest, alpine mountains, and arid desert conditions)

GDP: USD $111 billion (2021)

Human Development Index Ranking: 0.485 (Low)

Overview

Ethiopia is perhaps one of the most culturally unique, and socio-politically unique, countries in Africa. Located on the continent’s eastern Horn, it is one of the only two countries to have never been completely colonised by Europeans (the other being Liberia, which was founded by freed American slaves). It is home to the Ethiopian Orthodox Church, one of the oldest Christian denominations in the world, and is the site where one of the oldest prehistoric human remains (aged approximately 3.2 million years old) have been discovered - awarding Ethiopia the title “Cradle of Humankind” by archaeologists. But claims to fame are not enough to grant Ethiopia stability and success: armed conflict has recently arisen within the country’s north, and food insecurity remains a perennial issue. Needless to say, Ethiopia’s future - and even its present - remains fairly uncertain.

History

Credit: Yohannes Minas

Ethiopia is perhaps one of the oldest civilisations in human history. Although skeletal remains aged millions of years old have been discovered there, its identity as we know it more or less stretches back to 980 BCE. The rise of agriculture led to the establishment of the Kingdom of Da’amat, which specialised in trade to southern Arabian groups. Da’amat came to be displaced and overtaken by the Kingdom of Aksum, which established itself as a major trading empire and link between the Roman Empire, the Middle East, and India. By as early as the 4th century, Christianity had become the official state religion of Ethiopia, though Aksum had been destroyed by Queen Gudit - thus establishing the Zagwe Dynasty, of which a fairly low amount of definitive information (such as the name of the last king, or how many kings there were) is known. By the 16th century, Ethiopia had been conquered by a Muslim general named Ahmad Gran (though, upon his death at the hands of a Portuguese soldier, many Ethiopians converted back to Orthodox Christianity). There are, however, few kings as revered in Ethiopia as Menelik II, who successfully defended Ethiopia from the industrialised invading Italian force in the late 19th century. The Battle of Adwa is still celebrated in Ethiopia to this day.

Menelik was, however, the penultimate emperor of Ethiopia. Haile Selassie, his successor, was a pivotal figure in both Ethiopian and international politics, having attempted to modernise the nation, and speaking many times at the UN’s predecessor, the League of Nations. But towards the end of his reign, Ethiopians were faced with famine, war, and the (eventual) loss of Eritrea as a province. The Derg, a Marxist force led by Mengistu Haile Mariam, overthrew Emperor Selassie in the 1970s, attempting to establish communist reforms nationwide. The collectivisation of agriculture led to further famine, and civil war, forcing Mengistu to flee to Zimbabwe.

Eritrea’s war of independence, however, would turn into a much longer-term issue than expected. The town of Badme - a small market town with seemingly minimal value to either Ethiopia or Eritrea - found itself claimed by both countries, a dispute which swiftly flared into armed conflict, to remain unresolved until mid-2018.

Economy

Despite a large population and a lack of colonial institutions and setbacks, Ethiopia’s economy faces great difficulty. Climate change is altering rainfall patterns and creating food insecurities nationwide, and the state’s planned economy is stunting growth. The country’s main exports include agricultural and commodity goods, such as coffee, leather, and gold, primarily to the USA, Europe, and Gulf States. Major imports, however, include much more expensive fuel and aviation equipment - mostly from China, the USA, India, and the Gulf States. Political polarisation, particularly in the country’s northern provinces, further causes issues with economic output and growth. Finally, the financial burden of an extremely young and rapidly growing population will continue to cost more of the country’s money than it generates.

But Ethiopia’s economic history and projections seem to lean positively. The country’s GDP has risen almost nonstop each year since 1994, the average life expectancy has risen by 20 years since the mid-1990’s, and the government has a firmly defined Plan for Accelerated and Sustained Development to End Poverty (PASDEP). This plan has shown strong progress in reducing extreme poverty nationwide - with the number of people living on less than USD $1.90 per day falling from 71% in 1990 to 30% in 2015. Lastly, major infrastructure developments have taken place over the past few decades. Ethiopia Airlines has become a major regional carrier, the national road network has greatly expanded, and access to sufficient sanitation has become guaranteed for a growing number of people.

The Tigrayans: Who They Are, and What They Want

Federal troops in Oromo patrol New Year celebrations. Credit: Hudson Institute

In the mid-1970s, during the leadership of Mengistu Haile Mariam, the TPLF (Tigrayan Peoples’ Liberation Front) formed to combat the Marxist junta that ruled the country. After the fall of the Mariam regime, the TPLF became an ethnic identity-based political party that held the most sway in politics - despite being populated by the Tigrayan ethnic minority (accounting for approximately 7% of the overall population). The coalition government created by the TPLF gave regional autonomy, but maintained tight control over the central government - often oppressively so.

But the 2018 national election, placing Abiy Ahmed in power as Prime Minister, signaled a shift away from the TPLF’s ruling coalition for the first time in decades. Ahmed’s goal was to reform Ethiopia across the board by reducing authoritarianism, re-centralising the government, and improving relations with neighbours - particularly Eritrea. Such practices angered the Tigrayans, who perceived themselves as rapidly losing influence and political power to a member of the Ethiopian ethnic majority. By September of 2020, parliamentary elections were held in Tigray, despite Ahmed’s federal government postponing them due to the COVID-19 pandemic, and dismissing them as invalid. The TPLF, in response, assaulted a nearby federal military base, triggering the extremely bloody civil war - which is currently considered ongoing, but currently far less violent.

Trivia

-Ethiopia has the most UNESCO World Heritage sites of any country in Africa, boasting 9 of such locations.

-Ethiopia has over 80 spoken languages, with 5 of them being recognised as “working” languages. English is the most common foreign language.

-Dallol, in Ethiopia’s Danakil Depression, is both the lowest point in Africa, and the hottest place on Earth (with an average temperature of 34.4 degrees Celsius).

-Ethiopia’s Abebe Bikila was the first Black African to win an Olympic gold medal. In 1960, Bikila only made the team due to another athlete breaking his foot. He would go on to run the marathon barefoot, outrunning an opponent by a full 25 seconds.

Why Is Myanmar So Authoritarian?

It’s difficult to make any generalised statements about Southeast Asia. There are (depending on how you frame your definition of “Southeast Asia”) between 6 and 12 countries with over 350 recognised ethnic groups across the Peninsula alone, totaling a population of nearly 700 million people speaking an estimated 1200 different languages region-wide. Politically, the situation is no less diverse, as Thailand functions as a constitutional monarchy where the king is revered as an almost sacred figure, whilst neighbouring Vietnam acts as a single-party socialist state. One country in particular, however, has made headlines fairly consistently over the past few years due to the actions of its military-led regime (or junta), and has led people to ask:

Why is Myanmar so authoritarian?

General Aung San stands outside of 10 Downing Street in 1947, immediately after negotiating Burmese independence. Credit: Encyclopedia Britannica

The origin of the answer is found in the post-colonial era which, for Myanmar (or Burma, as it was then known) secured independence from the British in 1948. The newly established democracy only lasted for 10 years, however, before handing excessive amounts of power to the military (or Tatmadaw) in order to help suppress ethnic rebellions and deal with the sociopolitical fallout of economic decline. A decade later, a coup d’etat was staged by General Ne Win in 1962, establishing a new constitution that emphasised isolationist policy and a socialist economic program. Such a disastrous handling of the economy later led to mass protests in 1988. As the protests grew, however, Aung San Suu Kyi had established herself as a leader, keeping up the pace of the demonstrations’ momentum for two years - at which point, Ne Win had resigned (though was still in a position of great power), and the first multiparty elections were held. In these elections, Suu Kyi’s newly formed National League for Democracy (NLD) party won an overwhelming number of seats in the national Parliament. The military, however, maintained an overwhelming amount of power in Myanmar despite allowing elections to take place.

The first half of the 2010’s can be somewhat viewed as a “golden age” for democratic progress in Myanmar. Amnesty for more than 200 political prisoners was established in 2011, a ceasefire with ethnic rebels was signed and sanctions were eased in 2012, and more civil and economic freedoms were allowed in 2013. But the latter half of the decade witnessed something of a return to autocracy - violent suppression of ethnic minorities in the Kokang and Rakhine provinces (among others) took place, with Suu Kyi defending Myanmar against charges of genocide in The Hague in 2020. In early 2021, a refusal by opposition leaders to recognise the NLD’s valid re-election led to a failure for either group to establish a functional government - which the military resolved by declaring a state of emergency and seizing control. Violent protests broke out, but the country remains under full military rule to this day.

Min Aung Hlaing serves as Myanmar’s de facto leader following the 2021 coup. Credit: Ye Aung Thu, via Bloomberg

Ultimately, Myanmar remains authoritarian due to ethnic divisions and a legacy of the Tatmadaw’s over-involvement in political affairs. With respect to ethnic divisions, scholars have debated ideas such as whether colonial legacies have created friction between these groups, or whether economic inequality across groups and geography leads to public resentment. However, one thing is for certain: tension certainly exists due to the fact that Myanmar’s government does not recognise the Rohingya at all, refusing them citizenship and excluding them from censuses, instead seeing them as illegal immigrants from Bangladesh. Such tensions create conflict, which the government likely sees as possible to pre-emptively crush by maintaining an autocratic regime.

At this time, it’s not clear what can be done to promote democracy in Myanmar. The recent coup, combined with the effects of the pandemic, have left Myanmar’s economy in a state of crisis, and food insecurity is growing - leading to the belief that such violence as witnessed thus far will only grow more drastic. Foreign ministers in the West (as well as South Korea) have accused the Tatmadaw of bearing responsibility for the series of crises currently rocking Myanmar, stating that it has “gravely undermined peace and stability in Myanmar and the region”. But with the military stating that its state of emergency will be extended to 2023, it seems that authoritarianism in the country is, once again, here to stay.

TAI Score: Degree 3. Human security and democratic values remain considerably threatened by civil war in Myanmar. This is causing a complete ostracisation of the country from international meetings, and causing a continued refugee crisis in neighbouring countries. While the full impact outside of Myanmar’s immediate area remains moderate at most, threat assessors should ensure that issues surrounding transnational crime are not taking place in business practices.

Vietnam

Fast Facts

Location: Southeast Asia

Capital: Hanoi

Population: 97.3 million (2020)

Government Type: Single Party Socialism

Language: Vietnamese (with French, English, and other local languages used)

Climate: Tropical, with seasonal monsoon rains

GDP: USD $362.64 billion (2021)

Human Development Index Ranking: 0.704 (Moderate-High)

Overview

Vietnam is densely forested, hilly nation of nearly 100 million people located in Southeast Asia, bordering Cambodia, Laos, and Thailand. Its growth out of its state of destructive warfare in the mid-20th century can be described as almost miraculous: the population growth rate is slowly stabilising, GDP has grown steadily each year since 1989, and the political situation remains secure. In other areas, however, new issues are appearing or remaining unsolved, such as environmental concerns, an estimated 2 million children classified as “extremely vulnerable”, and a worrying trend of government censorship and restriction of civil freedoms. Whether Vietnam can continue to capitalise on its success thus far, or face a never-ending struggle against issues that hold it back, certainly remains to be seen in the coming decades.

History

A traditional set of housing sits among rice fields. Credit: Peter Hammer

The history of Vietnam is marked by two key characteristics: its relationship with China, and ongoing struggle defending against foreign invaders. The first record of “Vietnamese” people as we know them come from the 3rd century BCE, when Chinese settlers moved southwards towards modern-day Yunnan, Guangxi, and Guangdong. In 111 BC, the Han Dynasty of China annexed Vietnam, retaining it for a full millennium, but being unable to eliminate the local peoples’ distinct identity. Independence was secured when, during a time of political instability in China, the Vietnamese military general Khuc Thua Du staged a revolt that the weakened Tang Chinese government was forced to accept the terms of. Later attempts to re-conquer Vietnam would be repelled by Ngo Quyen, whose tactics were so successful that they would be imitated by later generals fighting off the Chinese, and even the Mongols, in the centuries to come. The following period, when Vietnam was known as Dai Viet, would be characterised by a series of monarchies that heavily fostered a sense of identity and nationalism in local people. These kingdoms would expand through a series of invasions known as Nam Tien (or March to the South), attacking the Champa to the south in 1471 and bringing about the downfall of its kingdom - thus establishing the approximate borders of modern-day Vietnam.

French colonisation of Vietnam began in the mid-1850s, with attempts of establishing and imposing a European-style system of government on the local populations (as was the French method of colonisation). This system caused mass inequality, as only the French and a very small number of elite Vietnamese merchants received the benefits of resource extraction and exploitation (for example, rice production quadrupled, but the peasantry class actually had less to eat per capita). After the two World Wars, Vietnam (led by Ho Chi Minh, a communist) declared independence from France. France’s rejection of Vietnam’s independence led to the communist Viet Minh waging guerrilla warfare, supported by the Soviet Union and China. Unfortunately, a 1954 UN led peace conference in Geneva was unable to keep the country peacefully divided, and a devastating, 20-year war broke out between the communist north and democratic south, directly supported by the United States (who were actively engaged in open combat throughout the country).

Following the conclusion of the war in the mid-1970s, the president of the newly unified Vietnam, Nguyen Van Linh, served as “Vietnam’s Gorbachev”, passing reforms (known as the Doi Moi) that reduced restrictions and attracted foreign investment - worrying hardline communists, but creating a system in which Vietnam has been able to socio-economically grow while remaining politically stable. Vietnam remains as one of the few communist countries today, though (like most, if not all communist nations) it has significantly adapted away from hardline, traditional Marxism in order to survive.

Economy

Vietnam is a country that meets most - if not all - of the pre-conditions for economic success. The country boasts a young population, a strong manufacturing industry, political stability, reliable foreign investment, low inflation, and a favourable view of free trade agreements. The results are clear and as expected: the Doi Moi has taken Vietnam from one of the world’s poorest countries, to a middle-income economy in a single generation, and poverty rates (internationally defined at receiving USD $1.90 or less per day) have fallen from 32% in 2011 to less than 2% today. Vietnam also currently holds a trade surplus (exporting more goods than it is importing), with electronics (such as mobile phones and televisions) being the top export - a product of significance as price fluctuations on global markets are rare.

But the economy of Vietnam does not have any more of a guarantee for success than any other. The country’s population is aging, global trade is declining, and automation in the manufacturing industry is increasing - all trends accelerated by the COVID-19 pandemic. Approximately 40% of Vietnam’s population also still works in agricultural production, an industry whose size has led to welfare decline for farmers, concerns about food safety, environmental degradation, and more. Vietnam is also especially vulnerable to climate change, with reports indicating it is one of the countries that will be most heavily impacted by rising sea levels and more powerful storms. Needless to say, the impact of these effects on the national economy could very well be severe.

Vietnam and China: Similar Systems, Opposing Agendas

The General Secretary of the Communist Party of Vietnam (CPV), Nguyen Phu Trong, pays an official visit to China in 2017. Credit: Xinhua News Agency, via the Institute for Security and Development Policy.

As discussed above, the relationship between China and Vietnam is ancient, and often hostile. Despite both countries sharing a border and comparable political systems, a state of wariness exists between China and Vietnam that remains very much in place today. It may trace its origins to the centuries of occupation under the Chinese, after which Vietnamese identity was more or less founded, or from the series of failed Chinese invasions that took place afterward. Or it may trace its origins to a more recent period, when China actually invaded Vietnam as recently as 1979 - less than a decade after the Vietnam War’s conclusion. This conflict erupted as a response to Vietnam’s alignment with the Soviet Union - as opposed to China - in diplomatic and economic affairs, and Vietnam’s elimination of the pro-Beijing (and extremely genocidal) Khmer Rouge in Cambodia.

Today, tensions remain due to ongoing disputes over maritime claims in the South China Sea. China claims a majority of these waters as its own - most likely due to the huge reserves of natural resources there - though their ownership is also disputed by not only Vietnam, but also Brunei, Taiwan, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Indonesia. Further, China is believed to have dredged sediment onto existing coral reefs, such as the Paracel and Spratly Islands, transforming them into islands upon which satellite imagery shows a growth in military infrastructure. Such actions place neighbouring countries such as Vietnam on alert, as the presence of Chinese forces in the area threatens both trade and national security. At this time, it is believed that while the threat of conflict in the South China Sea are low, it is slowly growing each year.

Trivia

-The largest cave in the world - known as Hang Son Doong - exists in Vietnam. It was discovered as recently as 2009, opened to the public in 2013, and even boasts underground rainforests. It is even believed to be wide enough to fly a Boeing 747 through.

-Despite being located in Southeast Asia, and entirely unlike its neighbours, Vietnam uses the Latin alphabet in common writing. This is due to a writing system being developed by Portuguese missionaries and French scholars in the 17th century.

-Although only 15% of Vietnam’s people followed its teachings in 2018, Buddhism is the most widely practiced religion in Vietnam. About 81% of Vietnamese people are either irreligious or follow traditional folk beliefs.

-Vietnam’s foreign affairs stance holds a strong position called the Four No’s, which consist of a commitment to: 1) No partaking in military alliances, 2) No aligning with one country to act against another, 3) No foreign military bases in Vietnamese territory or using Vietnam as leverage to act against other countries, and 4) No use of force to pursue a goal in international relations.

Why Does Latin America Have So Many Japanese Immigrants?

The average person is no stranger to immigrant communities in their country. In 2016, nearly 1.2 million people immigrated to the United States, and over half a million to the United Kingdom. Generally speaking, these people come from all over the world to escape conflict, pursue economic opportunity, or join family (in a process known as chain migration). Migration trends are always in a state of flux as well, with issues such as the UK’s 2016 EU Referendum, the Russian invasion of Ukraine earlier this year, or issues surrounding climate change causing spikes in immigration rates. But there is one immigration trend that may strike the average reader as both unexpected and puzzling, and they may find themselves asking: why does Latin America have so many Japanese immigrants?

Credit: Illinois State University

As with so many socio-political trends, the answer goes back at least a century. By the mid-1800s, the Japanese political system was in a transitional state. The military general (“shogun”) who had ruled Japan lost his power to merchant and other groups seeking interactions with outside powers, and supreme authority being restored to the emperor. The emperor’s new approach was to rapidly re-structure Japan to mimic European powers through a series of reforms known as the Meiji Restoration. The goals of the Meiji Restoration were to reduce a dependency on agriculture, and industrialise Japan by promoting the cautious introduction of both Western technology and culture.

So what does this have to do with Latin America in particular, and why it has so many Japanese immigrants?

Credit: University of Pittsburgh

The consequences of the Meiji Restoration, particularly a shift away from agriculture, caused high rates of unemployment and inequality throughout Japan - particularly in rural areas. Initial migrants (known as Nikkei, or overseas migrants of Japanese descent) to Hawaii were met with poor treatment, leading to the prohibition by the Meiji government for Japanese people to seek a future there. But the Chinese Exclusion Act of 1882 made American employers more eager to attract Japanese migrants - until 1924, when the Federal Immigration Act banned all Asian workers from entering the USA (which was already limited by the Japanese government). Many Asians - Japanese, in particular, therefore sought economic opportunity in neighbouring Latin America in the early 1900s. By the middle of the century, this trend increased significantly following the widespread destruction of Japan throughout the Second World War. More recently, members of the Nikkei communities of Latin America have been seeking to emigrate to Japan following the revision of Japanese immigration laws in 1990. The trend is believed to be useful to the economies of both Japan and the Latin American countries that the Nikkei come from - primarily Brazil, as these migrants send finances to the country their ancestors emigrated to decades (or more) ago.

Today, the descendants of Japanese migrants to the Americas - both North and South - can find civic engagement opportunities and a sense of community in PANA, the Pan-American Nikkei Association (or COPANI depending on whether the English or Spanish name is used).

TAI Score: Degree 0. The presence of Japanese-descended immigrants does not pose a threat for Latin American or Japanese societies. Risk assessors have nothing to monitor in this regard.

Iran

Fast Facts

Location: Middle East

Capital: Tehran

Population: 84 million (2021)

Government Type: Unitary Theocratic (Islamic) Republic

Language(s): Farsi, local languages

Climate: Dry, hot, and arid, with more temperate areas along the Caspian Sea coast

GDP: USD $231.55 billion (2020)

Human Development Index Ranking: 0.783 (Moderate-High)

Overview

Iran is a hugely significant power on both a regional and global level - and has been, on and off, since the days of the Persian Empire. It still appears in the news on a frequent basis, often in relation to something involving the United States, Israel, or other major actors. But it is also a mountainous country with verdant gardens, abundant resources, and Zoroastrianism - one of the oldest religions in the world. Due to a fairly autocratic political situation and practices viewed as unfavourable, however, sanctions from Europe, Israel, and North America have largely suppressed Iran, causing an unstable economy and a life expectancy just slightly above the global average. As such, Iran finds itself aligned with the Syrian government, Russia, Iraq, Yemen’s Houthi rebels, and the Lebanese Hezbollah.

History

Credit: Sajad Nori

The first Aryan tribes are believed to have migrated to the plateau approximately 5,000 years ago, though Paleolithic remains as old as 100,000 years have been found in the region. The founders of the Persian Empire were members of a semi-nomadic tribe living on the Iranian plateau in approximately 550 BCE, and united three of the most important sites in the ancient world: Mesopotamia, the Indus River Vally, and the Nile River Valley. The empire would last for two generations before Emperor Xerxes’ failed campaign to conquer Greece, followed by Alexander the Great’s conquest, caused it to collapse in 334 BCE. Various empires, such as the Parthians and Sassanids, spent the next several centuries vying for control of the Iranian plateau. Prior to Muslim Arab conquests in the 7th century, Zoroastrianism had been the primary religion of modern-day Iran. While these conquests did firmly establish Islam within Iran, Iranian culture and nationalism were left largely intact - and still are to this day.

A century after Islamic culture had taken hold in the country, Persians adapted Islam to fit a local context, with their own people participating at the forefront of the Golden Age of Islam. As with countless other nations at the time, Persia would then collapse at the hands of the Mongol Empire - though not for long, as Mongolian incursions into the Islamic world did not stretch particularly far. The Safavid Empire, Iran’s post-Mongol dynasty, would then establish Shi’ite Islam as the national religion, forming a major unified consciousness across the many ethnic groups that still populated the Iranian plateau. By the colonial period, Iran’s economy had been devastated by regional warfare, and the Shah (king) had been forced to appeal to Great Britain for economic relief, and Russia for diplomatic peace, thus triggering a strategic conflict between the two - though both eventually agreed on respective spheres of influence in 1907, as Germany was then viewed as a far greater threat.

During the final Shah’s reign in the 1960s, Iran had moved closer to the West, modernising the country and its economy by selling its vast reserves of oil to foreign powers in an event known as the White Revolution. The benefits of the program, however, were not felt across most of Iranian society, and when oil prices collapsed in the early 1970s, economic stagnation and downturn quickly followed. Sociopolitical oppression, combined with poor economic performance, led to many Iranians turning to radical religious groups, particularly those led by Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, to overthrow the Shah. Khomeini’s revolution in the late 1970s would then create the Islamic Republic of Iran, which is still in place today.

Economy

Despite issues surrounding a dependence on natural resources causing the downfall of the government in recent Iranian history (see above), economic activity on oil and natural gas remains moderately high. The national economy is only just beginning to recover from a decade-long stagnation, brought on by unstable oil prices, foreign sanctions, and the COVID-19 pandemic. Furthermore, rapid population growth - particularly in rural and agrarian areas - has hampered the country’s ability to deliver on its objectives of economic independence and a better quality of life for its nearly 85 million citizens.

But the Iranian economy is more diversified and resilient than most people may realise. Hydrocarbon production, services, and manufacturing industries are present and robust in Iran, albeit mostly state-owned and run. Access to electricity seems guaranteed across the country, while access to clean water is also slowly growing nationwide. But poverty in Iran is growing, and Faramarz Tofighi (head of the Islamic Labour Council wages committee) stating that," “More than 60 per cent of Iranian society lives in relative poverty…and half of those struggle with extreme poverty”. This is believed to be due to the re-imposition of sanctions on Iran since the Trump administration cancelled the Iranian nuclear deal. With poor economic performance being a critical factor of the 1979 revolution, it is unclear what the effects of this condition may yet be.

The Iranian Nuclear Deal

Credit: Al Jazeera

Known more formally as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the Iranian nuclear deal was an agreement to, quite simply, place restrictions on Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief. It seeks to block the four methods Iran could use to build nuclear weaponry, by reducing uranium and plutonium stockpiles, shutting down centrifuges, and accepting the presence of monitoring teams from the International Atomic Energy Association (IAEA). The deal was drafted by the Obama administration, and signed by the United States, United Kingdom, France, China, Germany, Russia, and Iran in Vienna, Austria, in 2013.

But in early May, 2018, the Trump administration pulled out of the nuclear deal, calling it “defective at its core”, reinstating original sanctions and imposing new ones on Iran. This sparked great concerns amongst European leaders, who have long believed that it suppressed Iranian nuclear capabilities, while improving diplomatic and economic relations. Since the abandonment by the United States, Iran has also taken steps away from following the conditions of the deal.

Can the nuclear deal, therefore, be revived by the Biden administration?

At the time of writing, the answer to this question is not yet clear. President Biden has not yet concluded his diplomatic tour of the Middle East, and discussions surrounding the deal are currently experiencing mixed results. However, Biden has voiced support for re-entering the deal, and exercised more restraint than his Israeli counterpart, Yair Lapid. But his proposal has not succeeded in Congress, where many American politicians have expressed disappointment that the proposal does not properly address Iranian support for groups identified by the United States as terrorists. Therefore, the future of the Iranian nuclear deal - or lack thereof - very much remains to be seen, in as soon as the coming weeks.

Trivia

-Iran has the highest volcano in Asia, with Mount Damavand standing over 5,600 meters tall.

-Iran has its own calendar, which is also used in Afghanistan. Under this system, the current year is 1443.

-Ancient Persians used yakhchal, or wind catchers, to reduce heat levels in cities. Though this technology is believed to have possibly originated in Egypt, the Persian city of Yazd has the most, and best-preserved ones, on display.

-The Pew Research Center found that most Iranians believe that religious authority should be present in government, but disagree on how much of a role these authorities should play.

Somaliland: One of Africa’s Strongest Non-States

Credit: The Guardian

It’s extremely likely you’ve heard of Somalia - though probably not for the best of reasons. It is one of the least developed countries in the world, with the average person earning a mere USD $445 per year. Most people know that it is also a hotbed for modern piracy, with 134 vessels taken hostage over the past 13 years (though, interestingly, the number of pirate attacks over the past ten years has significantly declined). Very few places on Earth can be considered “failed states”, but Somalia may very well be one of them.

So then, what is Somaliland, and how is it different?

The question is best answered by first taking a look at the colonial period in the Horn of Africa in the late 19th century. Modern-day Somalia was originally two separate colonies: Somalia, which was colonised by Italy, and Somaliland, colonised by Great Britain. The governance of the two was strikingly different: Great Britain (as it did with most or all of its colonies) took a much less hands-on approach, providing less infrastructure, but allowing more public freedoms and responsibility in the hands of local leaders. Following on from independence in 1960, Somaliland was a sovereign state for a mere five days before uniting with - and becoming a part of - Somalia itself.

Credit: Hiiraan Online

But the struggle for those seeking independence for Somaliland isn’t like many other separatist movements around the world. Advocates believe that it deserves to be its own sovereign territory not only because of cultural and ethnic distinctions, but also because it fulfills many of the requirements to be its own country. Somaliland has its own currency, valid elections, military, and passports. It is also more stable than Somalia, with fewer terror attacks taking place since 2008.

So what is Somaliland’s major roadblock, or roadblocks, to achieving international recognition?

The first - and perhaps most significant - is global apathy. Somaliland simply does not have the human, natural, or strategic resources to make international actors take decisive measures to recognise the state. Additionally, however, are the efforts made (particularly by the United States and Great Britain) towards building a comprehensive, functioning government in Somalia’s capital of Mogadishu. By recognising Somaliland’s independence, there are fears that such a political move would de-stabilise previous efforts made towards Somalia’s already fragile government at large. Lastly, and on a larger scale, the African Union echoes similar fears that Somaliland’s independence would lead to a resurgence of other separatist movements throughout the continent - some of which may be more violent and less successful.

A lack of recognition goes far beyond simply political satisfaction, however. Somaliland’s former Foreign Minister, Saad Ali Shire, says that a lack of bilateral networks are impeding aid intended for a food crisis, and the country is cut off from loan assistance via the World Bank. It’s highly unlikely that international recognition for Somaliland would solve its problems surrounding hunger - especially as a result of the climate crisis - but an ability to work with other recognised governments would be a strong start, and robust form of help.

TAI Score: Degree 2. While Somaliland itself is, in some ways, the opposite of a salient risk, political division and desperation in the already strained Horn of Africa and Red Sea region is beneficial to few, if any, actors. Despite its comparable stability and security, business and government actors must accept that business and political moves - up to and including diplomatic recognition - with Somaliland may result in a negative outsized impact.

Kazakhstan

Fast Facts

Location: Central Asia

Capital: Nur-Sultan (previously named Astana)

Population: 19.25 million (2022)

Government Type: Unitary Republic

Language(s): Kazakh, Russian

Climate: Continental (long hot summers, long cold winters)

GDP: USD $190.81 billion

Human Development Index Ranking: 0.825 (High-Moderate, 2019)

Overview

Kazakhstan is arguably the most major player located entirely within Central Asia (Russia heavily influences the region, but is not a “Central Asian nation” per se). It is the largest country by landmass in the region (and 9th largest in the world), holds the highest GDP, and is extremely rich in natural resources. It is this last point that plays an especially significant role in modern Kazakhstan, as it influences both domestic and foreign policy. Exploitation of these resources has caused political and economic issues, and an uneasy co-existence between local traditions and modern life. But life for the average person in Kazakhstan is slowly improving. The HDI ranking from 2000 to 2019 objectively rose, with the nationwide average ranking rising from 0.69 to 0.83 (with 1 being the highest) during this 20-year period, and the average life expectancy has steadily risen since the fall of the USSR. It certainly seems that life in Kazakhstan is slowly improving for the average person - but a number of roadblocks still remain.

History

Credit: Joel Heard

Modern day Kazakhstan has been inhabited since the Stone Age, as the Central Asian region is perfect for the practice of nomadic pastoralism. For centuries, the local populations (many of whom, such as the Scythians, cannot be directly linked to modern Kazakhs) lived as nomadic cultures heavily reliant on their animals. True political consolidation, however, did not occur until the early 13th century, with the invasion of the Mongol Empire establishing administrative districts that remained in place after the Empire’s collapse. By the 15th and 16th centuries, a unique Kazakh identity had formed around culture, language, and currency, as well as the establishment of a Kazakh nation under Kasym Khan. This empire would spend the next several centuries fighting off the Oirats, a Western Mongol confederation led by the exceptionally aggressive Dzungars (a threat eventually eliminated by the Manchurian Chinese). In the 1800s, Russian imperial influence had all but dominated Central Asia in a period known as the “Great Game”, in which the British and Russian empires competed for strategic dominance in the region. After the Bolshevik Revolution and establishment of the USSR, Kazakhstan’s new political system was established as an autonomous region in 1920, and Soviet republic in 1936. Soviet repression of Kazakh culture, intellectuals, and elites -as well as the collectivisation of agriculture - led to famine and mass emigration. Nuclear weaponry was also tested on Kazakh soil, causing major ecological and public health damage. Following the collapse of the USSR, Kazakhstan declared its own independence in 1990, fully achieving it in 1991. Nursultan Nazarbayev, the first post-Soviet president, initially followed a moderate line of democratisation - but became increasingly authoritarian over the following years. It was not until 2019 that he resigned, after three decades in power.

Economy

Kazakhstan’s economy is, as previously mentioned, heavily focused on natural resources. Oil, and oil related products, account for a staggering 73% of the national GDP - an extremely high proportion that leaves the national economy highly vulnerable to market shocks. However, much of that financial growth has been responsibly re-invested, with transportation and logistics infrastructure being generated to link Kazakhstan to Russia, western China, Europe, and the rest of Central Asia (a combined population of nearly 1 billion people). But the positive effects of these infrastructure projects have yet to be fully realised. The drop in oil prices in the mid-2010’s led to a severe decline in national GDP, with growth falling by approximately USD $100 billion in just three years. Furthermore, economic growth is hindered by widespread systemic corruption, with the Council of Europe reporting that corruption rates in Kazakhstan are “a serious concern, and more transparency [is] needed.”. When wealth is stored offshore - rather than in national banks, where it generates interest - it greatly impacts a national economy’s capacity for growth. But the news is not entirely negative - Kazakhstan has weathered the economic turmoil of the COVID-19 pandemic, with a GDP growth rate jumping back up to 4% in 2021, and a predicted 3.2% in 2022. With financially sustainable and responsible investments, a divestment away from natural resources, and an earnest campaign to tackle corruption, Kazakhstan has the potential for enormous economic capacity.

January 2022: What Happened, and Why

A protestor is detained during civil unrest in January, 2022. Credit: Vladimir Tretyakov/AP via Al Jazeera

On January 2nd, 2022, protests erupted in the oil hub town of Zhanaozen, after the government lifted a price cap on petroleum, causing the nationwide price of gas to almost double - after thousands of people converted their cars to petroleum usage as it was cheaper than other fuels prior to the price cap lifting. But these protests came to be about far more than fuel - widespread anger at the “monopoly” that Nursultan Nazarbayev and his allies had built in the post Soviet era, including over political choice and civil freedoms, also played a central part. Even after his resignation from a thirty year rule as president, Nazarbayev retained power as chairman of the national Security Council (until his successor, President Tokayev, forced his resignation days later).

Unfortunately, the situation did not remain peaceful - even after Nazarbayev’s dismissal. Authorities were accused of responding to the protests with excessive force, with 225 dead and over 10,000 detained. After several days of violent clashes, Tokayev appealed to the CSTO - the Collective Security Treaty Organisation, a military organisation and successor to the Warsaw Pact established after the end of the Cold War - for support. Merely four days after protests began, 2000 troops from Russia, Belarus, Tajikistan, Armenia, and Kyrgyzstan arrived in Kazakhstan to stabilise the situation. As soon as January 10th, it was assumed that the situation had been stabilised in Kazakhstan, though, as the Centre for Eastern Studies writes, “the embers may still smoulder for some time”.

Trivia

-Nearly every element on the periodic table can naturally be found in Kazakhstan, with over 99 discovered there.

-Kazakhstan is considered to be the birthplace of apples, with the Malus sieversii variant being identified as the progenitor of all mass-produced apples today.
-Archaeologists believe that the first horses to be tamed in human history were done so in modern day Kazakhstan.

-The largest and oldest space launch facility - the Baikonur Cosmodrome - is located in Kazakhstan, and is today both a museum and an operational facility under the operations of the Russian government.

Where The Stone Age Still Exists

Credit: Atlas & Boots Travel Blog

The Andaman and Nicobar Islands are India’s most southeastern administrative area. There are less than 900 islands in this area, which lie closer to Indonesia and Myanmar than to mainland India, with approximately 420,000 inhabitants in 2021. The climate is tropical and humid, but moderated by sea breezes, and (perhaps as a result) the tourism industry in the islands is growing. However, the capital city of Port Blair (where an organised government is involved in malaria prevention and tsunami relief) is not where this article takes it focus. Rather, just 25 kilometers from Port Blair lies a populated, off-limits island where evidence of even agriculture has yet to be found.

We know extremely little about North Sentinel Island and the people who live there. In fact, we don’t even know how many people live there at all. A 2011 census, combined with anthropological efforts, posit that the likely number sits between 80 and 150, though less conservative estimates place it between 15 and 500. What we do know for certain is that the North Sentinelese are extremely hostile to foreign attempts at contact - attacking and killing those who come to the island even accidentally, including two fishermen that drifted ashore while illegally harvesting crabs in 2006.

What exactly explains the violence that the Sentinelese show to any outsiders?

Credit: NASA Earth Observatory

The first non-Sentinelese to visit the island were British explorers seeking to expand the Empire’s territory and wealth. As with many post-Columbian exchanges, however, the explorers also brought diseases that the native population were biologically unequipped to deal with. Perhaps more importantly, in the late 1880s, a British naval officer by the name of Maurice Vidal Portman kidnapped six people - two elderly and four children - from the island to be studied in Port Blair. While the condition of the elderly rapidly declined until death, the four children survived (despite also falling ill) before being returned to North Sentinel. It is unknown whether the children's’ illness was spread on to other islanders. Nearly one hundred years later, in 1974, most of the tribes in the Andaman and Nicobar had been contacted and (at least partially) assimilated to modernity. But a group of anthropologists attempting to do the same with the Sentinelese (by bringing gifts of dolls, coconuts, and a live pig) was attacked, before having the gifts speared and buried in the sand.

The definitive nature and reasons behind the islanders’ hostility, however, is unknown at this time. National Geographic, however, identifies the first woman to contact the Sentinelese (Madhumala Chattopadhyay), detailing how coconuts were floated to the island from boats at a safe distance in January 1991. Two trips of this kind were made - but by 1996, these types of excursions were forbidden by officials, citing fears over the health of the islanders. They have not been re-allowed since.

TAI Score: Degree 1. Although the North Sentinelese do not venture beyond their island, constant monitoring and patrols are carried out by the Indian navy for safety reasons. Past individuals have attempted access to the island, resulting in their deaths, and concerns over the spread of disease to the natives remain. The impact of the North Sentinelese beyond the island, however, is effectively zero.

The Land That Nobody Wants

Generally speaking, countries rarely shy away from acquiring new territory. Russia has recently (within the past two decades) invaded Georgia and Ukraine, Turkey has invaded northern Syria, and border clashes over areas such as Aksai Chin exist between India and China. It’s no secret that having more land leads to any number of advantages for the country that owns it.

Bir Tawil’s location in North Africa. Credit: SlowJournalism.com

So, why on Earth is there a patch of desert in North Africa that no country wants to claim?

Bir Tawil is about the size of Greater London, and sits directly on the border between Egypt and Sudan. It doesn’t have a permanent population, though there are teams of Sudanese gold miners who frequent the area to sell what they find back in Khartoum. And although there isn’t anything wrong with the area (other than temperatures topping 45 degrees Celsius for nine months), and the fact that it is full of gold, neither Egypt nor Sudan want to claim it. Perhaps even more (at face value, seemingly) bizarrely, they both want to award it to one another - though not out of kindness.

The story of this geopolitical question mark begins in 1899. The British empire had, at this time, maintained control of both Egypt and Sudan, thus also maintaining the power to draw borders between the two. It was done so at the 22nd Parallel (a measurement of geographic longitude), before being updated in 1902 to better reflect the land’s usage by locals at the time - thus placing Bir Tawil within Egyptian borders. This, simultaneously, gave ownership of another area - the more extensive and fertile Hala’ib Triangle - to Sudan. According to Egypt, however, the 1902 agreement was temporary and deferential to the 1899 agreement, thus giving Bir Tawil to Sudan and the Hala’ib Triangle to Egypt. Therefore, ownership of Bir Tawil (and perhaps more importantly, the Hala’ib Triangle) is based on whichever agreement is seen as valid.

Although neither countries claim ownership of Bir Tawil, plenty of individuals have. A Russian radio broadcaster, an American farmer, and an Indian IT coder have all traveled there to each proclaim themselves king. A British barrister has also done so, but has seen more success in establishing authority there by attempting to regulate revenue generated by the local gold market. One thing, however, seems certain: formal ownership by either Egypt or Sudan does not seem to be on the horizon.

TAI Score: Degree 1. It is highly unlikely that Bir Tawil will, in itself, be a source of conflict. Although clashes over border disputes are by no means unheard of, both Egypt and Sudan have far more serious, and unrelated, issues that require being addressed first.

Turkmenistan

Fast Facts

Location: Central Asia

Capital: Ashgabat

Population: 6.03 million (2020)

Government Type: Parliamentary Republic*

Language: Turkmen

Climate: Arid, cold desert

GDP: USD $45.23 Billion (2020)

Human Development Index Rating: 0.715 (Moderate, 2019)

*NOTE: Turkmenistan is considered to be one of the most consolidated authoritarian regimes in the world, with Freedom House assigning it public freedom rankings similar to those of Eritrea and North Korea.

Overview

Turkmenistan is the dictatorship which, likely because it does not particularly generate headlines, the average person does not hear about. It is probably (by Western standards) also one of the strangest societies on Earth in a number of ways - to be discussed further on. For centuries, Turkmen people lived in a number of pastoral, nomadic clans, the three largest of which included the Tekke, Ersari, and Yomut. The ethnic makeup of Turkmenistan today consists largely of Turkmen, but also Russians, Uzbeks, Kazakhs, and Tatars. As with many other Central Asian states (and evident by the flag), it is also a majority Muslim country. Because the Turkmen language belongs to the Turkic language group, it (unlike Uzbek or Kazakh spoken in neighboring countries) is more similar to the Turkish language than any other. A majority of people live in the capital city of Ashgabat, as well as in other cities such as Dasoguz, Balkanabat, and Bayramaly.

History

A statue of Tamerlane, one of the warrior kings of Central Asia. Credit: Phil Bae

Following the neolithic cultural unification of modern-day southern Turkmenistan, the country fell under the control of the Parthian empire in the 4th century CE, before the Turkmen people entered the area as one of the Turkic tribes migrating westward from northern Asian steppes along the Silk Road. As with so many other modern-day countries, by the 13th century the Turkmen had become a part of the Mongol Empire, until becoming independent again in 1405 following the death of Timur. From there, Central Asia was fought over by Persian and Afghan, and later Russian and British, powers during the 17th and 18th centuries. By the mid 19th-century, the Russian Empire had completely conquered much of Central Asia, with Turkmenistan joining in the 1870s. Following the October Revolution that established the USSR, Turkmen people were encouraged to secularise, adopt European-style clothing, and (by 1948) give up nomadic lifestyles. Five decades on, Turkmenistan was one of the last countries to declare independence from a collapsing USSR as it needed the economic and political support it provided. Over the course of the 1990s, Saparmurat Niyazov was appointed Chairman, and later President for life, of Turkmenistan. Niyazov’s cult of personality has effectively crushed democracy in Turkmenistan to date, with his successor (Kurbanguly Berdymukhamedov) taking power in 2007 to this day - with no opposition candidates allowed in his election campaign. Today, however, Niyazov is still known as “Turkmenbashi”, a title which approximately translates to “Father of the Turkmen People”.

Economy

Due to Turkmenistan’s largely arid desert climate, the national economy is based on agricultural production around irrigated oases and the production of fossil fuels. The country’s top exports include crude and refined petroleum, as well as fertilisers, primarily to Uzbekistan, China, Russia, Turkey, and Italy. Since 2000, the Turkmen GDP has steadily risen, with the World Bank indicating that it has grown by USD $43 billion in the past two decades. However, in addition to a reliance on natural resources leaving the economy vulnerable to market shocks, FDI opportunities and business regulation in Turkmenistan remain severely limited. Doing so would allow the economy to grow by privatising state-owned enterprises and putting wealth towards human capitol, particularly outside of Ashgabat. Unfortunately, however, Turkmenistan is believed to be one of the most corrupt countries in the world - a practice which heavily restricts the possibility for finance-generating enterprises to be separated from the state. With civil society (the relationship between the state government and its citizens) being tightly controlled and censored, it is currently unlikely that such changes will come in the near future.

The Personality Cult

A statue of Niyazov in Ashgabat, which rotates to always face the sun. Credit: Martijn Munneke

As previously mentioned throughout this profile, Turkmenistan is one of the most autocratic countries in the world. Freedom House, a Washington DC-based think tank studying social freedom around the world, assigns a freedom score of 2/100, with a political rights score of 0/100, to Turkmenistan (for comparison, the United Kingdom is granted a score of 93/100) - a ranking which places it at the same approximate level as North Korea. Media and civil society are heavily controlled, and dissidents are often imprisoned and tortured - with reports of threats being made even to the relatives of dissidents. The national laws enforced by Berdymukhamedov are as strange as they are strict. Rumors swirl that days and months have been renamed to honour Niyazov and his family, car radios, cigarettes (outside of designated spaces), beards, and opera have been banned, and Ashgabat has completely banned dogs. Hospitals outside of Ashgabat have even been ordered to close down - it is unclear exactly why.

Perhaps the most central part of Niyazov’s and Berdymukhamedov’s regime is the Ruhnama - a book written by Niyazov that forms the cornerstone of post-Soviet Turkmen society. This book contains everything from moral teachings, history, and folklore to constitutional law, religion, and even praises for national symbols such as melons and carpets. Its teachings are mandatory in schools, mosques, and even driving tests. An enormous statue of the book - as well as many other symbols of Turkmen identity - exist in Ashgabat. This statue even opens its pages and plays an audio recording every day at 8PM.

Trivia

-The Darzava Gas Crater, or Gates of Hell, is a 70-meter wide hole that has been on fire for over 50 years due to a Soviet drilling machine accidentally puncturing a natural gas pipeline, then being set alight in order to burn the poisonous fumes out in a project believed to take only a few weeks.

-Turkmenistan is one of the least visited countries in the world, with an estimated tourist count of less than 10,000 people per year. This is due to an extremely difficult visa acquisition situation.

-Turkmenistan holds a variety of rather strange Guinness world records, including (but not limited to) the world’s largest indoor Ferris wheel, the fastest 10m on hind legs by a horse, and the world’s largest cycling awareness lesson.