South Africa

Fast Facts

Location: Sub-Saharan Africa

Capitals: Pretoria (executive), Bloemfontein (judicial), Cape Town (executive)

Population: 60 million (2021)

Government Type: Parliamentary Republic

Language(s): English, Afrikaans, Xhosa, and a wide variety of indigenous languages

Climate: Sub-tropical and temperate, with arid desert in the northwest

GDP: USD $419 billion (2021)

Human Development Index Ranking: 0.709 (Moderate, 2019)

Overview

Africa’s second largest economy and 7th most developed country is a growing power. With an ambitious and realistic climate change mitigation approach, a robust presence in international sports, and overall political stability on a continent that often lacks it, it’s no wonder that South Africa is included in the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) nation group of emerging, or recently emerged, major powers. Within a single generation, the country also moved from the status of being an international pariah under the apartheid regime to being a multi-racial, pluralistic democracy for tens of millions of people. But perennial issues still exist for millions of South Africans. Almost one-third of the country still lives on less than USD $1.90 per day, moderate rates of corruption continue to take place, and public health issues (including the prevalence of HIV/AIDS) remain an issue in South African society. Indeed, South Africa’s successes since the fall of apartheid law are not being felt by everyone - but they are overwhelming successes which remain nonetheless.

History

Credit: Doug Linstedt

Human settlement in modern-day South Africa has existed for thousands of years - if not longer. The original Black Africans of South Africa can be identified among one of four ethnic groups: the Northern and Central Nguni (Zulu-speaking peoples), the Southern Nguni (Xhosa-speaking peoples), the Swazi, and the Ndebele people. The name “Zulu” (which refers to a specific Nguni tribe) translates to “Heaven” or “Sky”, and comes from the name of the tribe’s founder in the 17th century. Many neighbouring tribes were crushed by the Zulu army, which had been re-organised and expanded upon by Shaka, the most famous king in Zulu history.

The first Europeans to establish colonial influence in South Africa were the Dutch, who did so at Cape Town in 1652. The colony was set up as a re-supply point for ships traveling from the Netherlands to Indonesia, where Dutch interests primarily lay. As the colony grew, it did not, in fact, enslave the local Khoisan people, as they supplied the colonists with cattle. Rather, slaves were imported from the East Indies and other areas of Africa. Millions of the mixed-race descendants of white settlers, Africans, and Asian slaves still live in South Africa’s largest cities (particularly Cape Town), and are known as “Cape Coloureds”.

Over time, British influence in South Africa came to eclipse that of the Dutch, and in the mid 1800s, the white descendants of Dutch settlers (known as Boers, or Afrikaners today) embarked upon the Great Trek, a pioneering journey bound inland from Cape Town, to live outside of British colonial administration. This was primarily due to escaping conflict with Xhosan neighbours, and the imposition of British law, such as the replacement of Dutch with English as the official language, and the abolition of slavery.

The First Boer War of 1880 broke out when the Boer settlements in South Africa challenged British authority by refusing to grant rights to non-Boers, and refusing to cede control over gold mines in the Transvaal region - particularly as the British pound was tied to the price (and, subsequently, production) of gold. The conflict resulted in a Boer victory, and the independence of the Transvaal and Orange Free State and, eventually, all of South Africa. Peace, however, was both uneasy and short-lived. The Second Boer War erupted in 1899 following the discovery of gold in the Witwatersrand area, the extraction and sale of which would have made the otherwise-struggling Transvaal Republic easily rival the authority of the British. Demanding that the Transvaal Republic either reform or prepare for war, the British found Boer nationalism flaring up again, with conflict breaking out shortly after.

No sooner had South Africa achieved independence, had it been faced with a series of crises. The Union of South Africa had been established as a “white state”, to which Black communities were (understandably) outraged by. The African National Congress was established to combat this state of affairs in 1912, while the South African Communist Party emerged nearly a decade later. Job losses from a global recession, Afrikaner nationalism, and the passing of increasingly discriminatory legislation led to the rise of the apartheid regime in South Africa by 1948.

Apartheid, the Afrikaner word for “apartness”, was enacted by the all-white National Party of South Africa. Although it had not been consolidated until 1950, territorial segregation had begun as early as 1913, with the Land Act forcing Black Africans to live on reserves. Numerous other laws would be drafted along racial lines, enacted, and protested against, for the 50 years that apartheid rule lasted for.

The legendary Nelson Mandela, perhaps the most significant anti-apartheid activist, worked with de Klerk, the first president of South Africa to begin dismantling apartheid rule and draft a new national constitution. In 1993, he and de Klerk jointly won the Nobel Peace Prize, and Mandela would, himself, later become president as head of the African National Congress, stepping down after one term as he promised.

Economy

Progress towards nationwide economic development has slowed in recent years, with unemployment remaining as high as 67% of people aged 15-24, and 44% of people aged 25 - 34. This COVID-19 crisis has not helped this situation either: the World Bank described South Africa’s economic contraction as “severe”, and its projected recovery rate as “moderate” in July of 2021. South Africa was by no means ready for the shock that COVID-19 created, given that the country was already in a recession due to declining commodity prices, declining foreign investment, and an insufficient electricity supply. This has combined with the pandemic to create a seriously precarious situation in which 40% of households could not afford to buy food in January 2021.

Nevertheless, South Africa has a strong economic foundation to work from. It boasts an abundant supply of natural resources, well developed critical sectors such as communications, transport, and finance, and the largest stock exchange in Africa, South Africa’s economy is both robust and stable. The country’s largest exports by value in 2021 were platinum, iron, gold, coal, and cars. Its main imports are electrical machinery, vehicles and aircraft, and chemicals.

The World’s Least Equal Society

Wealthy and impoverished neighbourhoods in Johannesburg sit adjacent to one another, separated by a single street. Credit: Johnny Miller, via The Economist

The Gini Coefficient is a percentage measurement (often converted to a decimal point between 0 and 1) that demonstrates a country’s equality of income distribution. It is often used by those analysing national and international trends such as economic development, poverty rates, and more. To use extreme examples of the Gini Coefficient, a country with a score of 0 would have perfect income equality, in which everyone earns the same salary per year, and a country with a Gini Coefficient of 1 would indicate that the entirety of a nation’s wealth belongs in the hands of an individual.

South Africa has the world’s highest Gini Coefficient, with a score of 0.63, meaning that 10% of the country owns more than 80% of the wealth. But what explains this level of extreme wealth inequality?

The first factor is the legacy of apartheid and a history of racism. The World Bank has identified that race inequality’s “contribution to income inequality amounts to 41 percent, while contribution of education is reduced to 30 percent.”. South Africa’s neighbours face a similar situation, with Namibia, Swaziland (eSwatini), Zambia, and Mozambique all holding comparable levels of income inequality. A lack of economic growth also means that industries are unable to properly expand. As such, new jobs are not being created to accommodate new entrants to the labour market - which includes both local youth and migrant workers. This particular issue appears to be something of a feedback loop: the economy is not growing, thus there are no jobs to lower unemployment, thus the economy is not growing. Major organisations point to the equalisation of worker salaries, improvement of equality for women and ethnic minorities, and better research on generational poverty as key contributors to eliminating widespread inequality. Better access to critical infrastructure, particularly education, and specifically within disadvantaged areas away from urban centers, will also help to pull millions of South Africa out of poverty.

Trivia

-The world’s first heart transplant took place at a hospital in Cape Town, in 1967.

-FW de Klerk secretly built, then dismantled and discarded, six units of atomic weaponry. To date, South Africa is the only country to have completely denuclearised its military capabilities.

-There are more varieties of flowers found on South Africa’s Table Mountain than in the entirety of the United Kingdom.

-The world’s largest man-made forest is found in Johannesburg, containing over six million planted trees. This may explain why Johannesburg is also one of the greenest cities in the world.

Why Isn’t Indonesia a Superpower?

President Joko Widodo greets the Indonesian navy at a base in the Riau Islands. Credit: The Jakarta Post

Indonesia is an enormous - and enormously important - country in more than one sense. The Southeast Asian archipelago boasts a population of 280 million with a life expectancy only slightly below average, with an economy of over USD $1 trillion that has been growing at a staggering 5% on average nearly every year since 2000 - more than twice as fast as the United Kingdom during the same time period. Indonesia also holds its own reserves of fuel and valuable minerals, has access to the coast, and is a (mostly) democratic country more or less aligned with Europe, Australia, the USA, and its own most immediate neighbours.

So, with so many favourable conditions and strong foundations, why isn’t Indonesia a superpower that can realistically be compared to its allies?

The first reason is that Indonesia is rife with corruption, and an estimated 92% of Indonesians believe that government corruption is a major issue. There are two main challenges which stand in the way of combatting corruption: the first is the deeply cultural outlook on exchanging money for services being seen not as corruption, but as a form of patronage in which people are simply making a trade. The other main challenge is the underequipping and underfunding of oversight institutions. The low regulatory quality means that cases of corruption often go unenforced - if noticed at all.

Poor handling of public funds is a further issue, even with a skyrocketing amount of them to be invested. With tax revenues contributing to barely 10% of GDP, Indonesia’s rate is the second-lowest in the region, and even below average for the least developed countries in the world. A consequential lack of investment into critical infrastructure is another cause for alarming statistics - including the fact that an estimated 305 out of every 100,000 mothers do not survive childbirth.

The country is also rapidly urbanising. From 2011 to 2021, nearly 7% of all Indonesians moved into urban areas - a figure equivalent to roughly 20 million people in just ten years. Rapid and intense urbanisation can place serious pressures on existing infrastructure, such as sewage, housing, electricity, transportation, and more. Alleviation of these burdens - as well as a handful of other reasons - are why Indonesia is actually moving its capital away from Jakarta in the coming decades.

Lastly, Indonesia remains extremely vulnerable to the effects of climate change. In addition to the archipelago being naturally exposed to rising sea levels, Indonesia also suffers from shifting rainfall patterns causing flooding in some areas, and droughts in others. These disasters will also occur alongside less manmade ones, such as earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, and tsunamis. Without proper investment into infrastructure, prevention, and relief, these disasters will have magnified effects on Indonesia’s population.

But it’s not impossible for Indonesia to become a major power. The reformations taken in the past two decades - largely due to the aftermath of the Asian Financial Crisis - have led to Indonesia slowly climbing the ladder of major economies. Analysts and consultants from the IMF, PwC, and Worldbox Business Intelligence all predict that Indonesia will eventually become a much larger presence on the world stage than it currently is. Its enormous manufacturing capabilities also make it attractive to countries seeking to reduce production reliance on China, and the current president is visibly committed to tackling Indonesia’s greatest issues. Whether these solutions bear fruit, however, will take years - if not decades - to determine.

TAI Score: Degree 2. Although it has been proven many times over that underdevelopment and conflict are tied to one another, the likelihood of Indonesia’s stunted development resulting in anything moderate or severe is unlikely. Despite this, relevant business and government actors should remain wary of corruption and questionable business practices taking place.

Thailand

Fast Facts

Location: Southeast Asia

Capital: Bangkok

Population: 70.18 million (2022)

Government Type: Constitutional Monarchy

Language(s): Thai

Climate: Subtropical humid

GDP: USD $505.98 billion (2021)

Human Development Index Ranking: 0.777 (Moderate-High, 2019)

Overview

Thailand is, arguably, the cosmopolitan heartland of the Indochinese Peninsula. It has the highest GDP and second highest population in the region, Bangkok holds the current title of being the city most visited by tourists in the world, and life expectancy has grown somewhat steadily since records began in 1960. The majority-Buddhist population of Thailand enjoys steadily growing wealth and development - but also political instability. Democracy has remained shaky and uncertain in the kingdom over the past two decades, with military coup d’etats becoming more of a rule than an exception. From the outside, Thailand seems to be a “tale of two countries”, in which military rule backed by a widely-revered king boasts a stable economy, steady development, and a booming tourism industry.

History

Credit: sasint/Pixabay, via TheCultureTrip.com

The earliest archaeological finds in Thailand show evidence of widespread rice cultivation approximately 5,000 years ago. The name “Thailand” originates from the first settlers belonging to the ethno-linguistic Tai group of peoples. The country’s earliest, and other, name of Siam comes from a Sanskrit word syama, meaning dark brown (also in reference to the native people). Otherwise, much of what we know of early Thailand was dominated by the Khmer Empire of Cambodia, with much of the local history also coming from Chinese records of demographic shifts in, to, from, and near modern-day Yunnan and Guangxi.

The establishment of the Sukhothai Kingdom in the mid-13th century in modern-day southwestern Thailand indicated the first administrative capital of a uniquely “Thai” nation. During the rule of King Ramkhamhaeng, Thailand established its own writing system and widespread practicing of Buddhism. King Ramkhamhaeng’s legal system also guaranteed religious and economic freedom, good governance and the rule of law, and religious morality.

With the death of King Ramkhamhaeng came the swift decline of Sukhothai as a cultural and political power, and its ultimate absorption into the more powerful Ayutthaya Kingdom. Under this kingdom’s rule, the Ayutthaya became strong enough to invade, and trigger the decline of, the Khmer Empire that had formerly dominated modern-day Thailand centuries ago. The conquered Khmer thus introduced Hindu ideas to the Ayutthaya, such as the concept of an almost godlike-status assigned to monarchs - a trend which more or less continues today. By the late 18th century, conflicts with Burma had escalated to the point of the Ayutthaya being invaded and destroyed - until a pair of national heroes (Taksin and Chakri) retaliated, liberated, and re-unified Thailand. The dynasty subsequently established, the Chakri, moved its capital to Bangkok and remains in power to this day.

During the colonial era, Siam was one of the only countries in the world to avoid European colonialisation. This was achieved through two means, and primarily under the reign of King Chulalongkorn. The first reason for Thailand’s retained sovereignty came from luck: its geographic position between Burma and Vietnam meant that it could position itself as an advantageous buffer zone to the British and French Empires, thus maintaining a state of neutrality beneficial to all parties involved. The second reason was based on successful negotiations with European powers: by undertaking internal political reforms and “Western-ising” its government, centralising political power and creating programs to promote a “Thai” identity. King Chulalongkorn’s skilled diplomacy in navigating and dealing with European powers maintains his status in Thailand as the “Great Beloved King”.

In the early 1900s, Western (mainly British) administration officers overseeing Thai political developments and the establishment of the national railway network led to a natural alliance with Britain in both world wars. During the interim period, however, a bloodless revolution took place which overthrew the ruling oligarchies and established a more balanced and fair constitutional monarchy. During the Second World War, the pro-Japanese puppet government in Thailand declared war on the USA in 1942, but hostilities never formally broke out due to the ambassador (and later Thai Prime Minister’s) refusal to deliver the declaration to the American federal government. Despite a pro-Japanese military coup in 1947, Thai forces would continue to fight alongside American and South Vietnamese forces during the Vietnam War, a conflict which Thailand otherwise largely avoided the effects of.

Since 1932, Thailand has faced over 18 military coups - ten of them occurring during the reign of the previous king. The current king of Thailand is King Maha Vajiralongkorn Rama X.

Economy

Although Thailand’s political situation is consistently in a state of minor flux, its economy has managed to weather these storms with relative ease. In a single generation from 1960 - 1996, Thailand’s GDP has boomed from an average growth of 7.5% each year. Even during the Asian Financial Crisis of the late 1990s, it continued to grow at a rate of 5% each year. This has led to a smooth decline in national poverty rates, falling from 42% in 2000 to a mere 6.2% in 2019, and by 2011, more than half of Thailand’s population was enrolled in tertiary education for the first time ever.

This stable growth that has sustained Thailand even during times of domestic and international uncertainty is explained by a variety of factors. The first is domestic policy: the Thai government mandates a national minimum wage of approximately USD $10 per day, well-developed infrastructure, and a series of policies friendly to investors and free-enterprise. This has led to Thailand finding itself in the top 30 countries worldwide for receivers of foreign direct investment as of 2018.

Thailand’s main exports include rubber, electronics, circuitry, automotive and mechanical parts, and gold. Imports largely consist of petroleum and broadcasting equipment. The main risks to Thailand’s economic growth have been identified as an aging population and household debt levels.

Diplomacy From the Kitchen

Credit: Ruth Georgiev

It’s no accident that nearly every town in the West seems to have a Thai restaurant, despite its population being less than that of Germany. The reason that there are so many of them around is simple: the government probably put them there.

Thai-Americans number less than 300,000, and yet there are 5,400 Thai restaurants in the United States alone, due to culinary diplomacy actively pursued by the Thai government. Launched in 2001, the Global Thai program aimed to finance an additional 1,500 restaurants around the world in an effort to promote interest in, and relations with, Thailand. But the benefits of gastro-diplomacy go beyond winning over the hearts, minds, and stomachs of customers through cultural awareness. It can boost national economies by encouraging the overseas sale of domestically-made products required for specific cuisines.

The Global Thai campaign was established by the Ministries of Foreign Affairs, Commerce, Labor, and more. It began by awarding the “Thai Select” moniker to restaurants considered to be sufficiently authentic, thus attracting more keen customers. This has then been expanded upon within Thailand itself, where chefs are trained by the government to travel overseas to establish restaurants with public sponsorship.

The program has been so successful that some countries, such as New Zealand, now even have visas specifically offered to incoming Thai chefs.

Trivia

-Bangkok’s full name is more of a description than a name, is the longest place name in the world, and is rooted in Sanskrit. The full name is Krung Thep Mahanakhon Amon Rattanakosin Mahinthara Ayuthaya Mahadilok Phop Noppharat Ratchathani Burirom Udomratchaniwet Mahasathan Amon Piman Awatan Sathit Sakkathattiya Witsanukam Prasit.

-Because the number 5 is pronounced in Thai as ha, many modern Thai will write “55555” as a shorthand for laughter in informal messaging, such as texts and social media.

-Thai New Year (the Songkran Festival) is celebrated with a nationwide water fight. This is also celebrated in Myanmar, Laos, and Vietnam.

-The phrase “white elephant” refers to a practice of ancient Siamese kings giving white elephants to those they disliked, as they were too sacred to be useful or disposed of, but too expensive to care for. As such, “white elephant” is a colloquial idiom in English used to refer to gifts that cause great inconvenience.

NEOM’s Mirror Line: Saudi Arabia’s Smart City

There is a highly ambitious - and some might even say, revolutionary - project being undertaken in the Saudi Arabian desert. A new city is being built near the Red Sea to, as the Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman describes, “tackle the challenges facing humanity in urban life today.”. NEOM - which receives its name from a combination of the Greek word for “new” (neo) and the Arabic word for “future” (mustaqbal) - has plans include having no cars, no greenhouse gas emissions, and accommodation for 9 million people. The project promises everything from job creation and ecological sustainability to better healthcare and higher disposable incomes due to its layout.

There’s just one catch: the city is planned to be 200 meters wide, and 170km long.

A projection of the Mirror Line City stretching into the Saudi desert. Credit: Architectural Digest

The project is, of course, exceptionally ambitious. Officials behind the project say that places visited on a regular basis (schools, homes, offices, etc.) will take a mere 5 minutes for commuters, and end-to-end journeys will take only 20 minutes. The city’s outer “wall” will be mirror-clad to reflect the desert’s heat, while the interior is lined with trees and other foliage. The project also boasts proximity to international trade routes (such as the Suez Canal, through which an estimated 10% of global trade flows), perennial sources of solar and wind power, and opportunities for testing new technologies in desert habitation.

NEOM Line City’s creation is part of Saudi Arabia’s wider Vision 2030 project, which seeks to diversify the national economy away from fossil fuel production and re-invest into healthcare, education, infrastructure, and more. Food and water security, as well as research and development capacity, are also at the forefront of the project.

An estimation of what the Mirror Line City’s interior may look like. Credit: Arab News

Nevertheless, critics have found a wide variety of shortcomings in NEOM’s Line City plans. In a financial sense, research shows that Saudi Arabia has struggled to attract adequate levels of foreign investment, and that such shortfalls will cause the project to be completed in 2050 - twenty years past its goal - and subsequently costing nearly USD $1 trillion. Further criticisms - such as those from Philip Oldfield, head of the Environmental School at the University of New South Wales in Sydney - warn that the carbon cost of constructing the city “will overwhelm any environmental benefits. You cannot build a 500-meter tall building out of low-carbon materials.”. Oldfield further estimated that fully producing NEOM’s Line City would produce nearly 2 billion tons of emitted carbon dioxide - roughly equivalent to more than four years’ worth of the UK’s entire emissions.

NEOM’s Line City - regardless of whether it will or even can work - is a significantly revolutionary idea. Its greatest success may be causing the rest of the world to re-examine our own cities to see what needs to be fixed, changed, or replaced, but this may ultimately be its greatest success - but perhaps its only one.

TAI Score: Degree 1. The construction of the Line City will not likely cause a negative impact on the international stage. While it is possible to provide a net benefit to the Saudi Arabian economy, it is more likely that the Line City’s greatest negative impact to be climate related - though this phenomenon is already a cause of concern due to a number of other sources.

Venezuela

Fast Facts

Location: Latin America

Capital: Caracas

Population: 28.2 million (2022)

Government Type: Federal Republic

Language(s): Spanish, indigenous languages

Climate: Hot and humid, with more moderate temperatures in the highlands

Gross Domestic Product: USD $106.36 billion

Human Development Index Ranking: 0.711 (2019, Moderate-High)

Overview

Venezuela is Latin America’s most tumultuous and controversial country. It has the world’s highest crime rate, its highest inflation rate, and an extremely low democracy score. There has been only one transition of power between individuals in the past two decades, which took place within the same political party since 1999. Hyperinflation continues to be a serious issue as well - in 2018, it peaked at a jaw-dropping rise of 65,374% from the previous year, after several decades of already severe inflation rates ranging from 11% to 255%. The Human Rights Watch has issued an equally bleak report, stating that widespread oppression, torture, extrajudicial killings, and overwhelming humanitarian crises are present. It is extremely unclear what the long-term (or even short-term) future for Venezuela is, but with the exception of armed internal conflict, there are few things that would be more dire than its current state.

History

Mt. Roraima towers over the jungle in southeastern Venezuela. Credit: Wikipedia

As with every country in the Americas, Venezuela was and is home to a pre-European indigenous population. However, the now-extinct Arawaks of modern-day Venezuela had not established urban centers such as those in Peru or Mesoamerica, thus, their culture, history, and lifestyle is largely unknown. Spanish expeditions, which included Christopher Columbus himself, first reached modern-day Venezuela at the end of the 15th century. The country’s name comes from later expeditions by Amerigo Vespucci, who was reminded of Venice by the stilt housing occupied by natives (hence, Venezuela or “Little Venice”).

At the time of initial Spanish colonisation, Venezuela’s perceived advantage was more one of geography than of resource or wealth extraction, as its long coastline gave security from pirates and re-supply opportunities to Spanish naval infrastructure traveling between Panama and Cuba. Over the next two centuries, modern-day Venezuela would be increasingly absorbed into larger regional empires, such as The Kingdom of New Granada, the Viceroyalty of Granada, and eventually Gran Colombia. Under Simon Bolivar, Venezuela had secured independence in 1811 from Spain, a fading empire that had been further weakened by Napoleon’s invasions. But Bolivar was more skilled at warfare than politics, and was unable to hold Gran Colombia together - leading to regional rivalries and eventual fragmentation into Venezuela, Colombia, Ecuador, Bolivia, and Peru.

The decades following Venezuela’s independence from Gran Colombia were tumultuous at best. The Federal War broke out in the mid-1800s due to series of power struggles between pro-independence caudillos (similar to generals), serious economic decline, and the resentment of federalist leaders who had been exiled by the ruling Conservative party. The two most significant outcomes of this war were the creation of Venezuela’s federal government, and the reduction of the central government’s military power. In the late 1800s, approximately 30 years after the Federal War’s conclusion, Venezuela found itself involved in conflict again. Great Britain, which had acquired neighbouring Guyana, had not clearly defined a western border - concerning and angering Venezuela, who viewed their presence as an encroachment into sovereign territory. Venezuela found support from the United States, who declared that there would no longer be no tolerance for European activity or colonialism in the Americas - setting the very first foundation for the Monroe Doctrine, a policy which would later be upheld in the Cold War and modern era at large.

As with so many other states in the 1900s, Venezuela discovered - and quickly capitalised upon - its enormous oil reserves. From 1908 to 1935, Venezuela existed as the world’s largest exporter of oil, and although this title is no held, oil’s status as the backbone of the Venezuelan economy remains a trend which continues today. Due to high global demand, the mid-1900s were kind to Venezuela. In 1958, the downfall of the dictator Marcos Perez Jimenez led to the efforts of Wolfgang Larrazabal, a former naval officer, to promote nationwide democracy and a transition from military to civil rule. Although he lost in the following election, his ideas remained popular with Venezuelans. By the early 1970s, the golden age of Venezuela’s wealth had ended. The world found itself in a protracted oil crisis due to conflict in the Middle East, and Venezuela found itself unable to find buyers for their product that had experienced a price rise of approximately 350%. Mass dissatisfaction grew when, after 20 years, Venezuela was still unable to recover, two coup attempts were carried out, and the president had been impeached on corruption charges.

By 1998, a military colonel named Hugo Chavez (a leader of the aforementioned coup attempts) had successfully capitalised on public discontent and been elected president. Chavez’s promises to end corruption, redistribute oil wealth, and increase social spending made him exceptionally popular - and able to expand his personal power across Venezuela’s government. His increasingly radical agenda, public alignment with Castro and socialist Cuba, and alienation of international superpowers (such as the USA) saw his popularity decline fairly quickly in the 2000’s.

Nicolas Maduro’s succession of Chavez in 2012 has led to a more or less continuation of Chavez’s leadership. Maduro’s government - which remains in power today - indicates no imminent shift towards democracy or reduction in oppressive practices. The outcome of Venezuela’s 2018 election remains contested, with more than 50 countries declaring the results invalid.

Economy

Venezuela’s economy is in a tailspin. The national GDP has declined almost every year since 2015, and more than half of the households nationwide are estimated to be under extreme poverty - defined internationally as living on less than USD $1.90 per person, per day. In the national capital of Caracas, the richest district, this definition applied to nearly two-thirds of households, and in the state of Amazonas, this definition applied to a shocking 71% of households, or over 100,000 people. Few countries on Earth can claim the title “Petrostate” more than Venezuela can, given its dependence on oil revenues to generate 99% of export earnings and 25% of GDP. But the country’s central bank is reporting that in 2022, the economy grew by nearly 17% in the first quarter, and has been experiencing similar figures for approximately 2 to 3 years now. The most likely reasons for this initial growth include the relaxation of controls on the national economy, due to lower global oil production and sanctions from the United States. Such growth is doubtlessly significant - but will need to be sustained and properly managed, as well as shifted away from an overwhelming reliance on oil, to stabilise and become Venezuela’s norm.

The 2018 Election

Credit: Australian Institute of International Affairs

Venezuela’s most recent election caused international outcry from more than 50 nations. The then-American Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo, referred to the elections as a “sham”, Chile threatened blockades and demanded free elections, and Japan expressed that it “deplores that the political, economic and social situations have been deteriorating in Venezuela”.

So what exactly occurred?

Before the election even took place, many opposition candidates found themselves jailed or fleeing to avoid imprisonment. Juan Requesens, an opposition lawmaker, was one of 18 people to be sentenced to 8 years in prison for alleged involvement in the detonation of explosives at a pro-Maduro event. Dozens of others have been arrested for suspected terrorism, conspiracy, and treason charges. As such, the remaining opposition leaders found themselves with no choice but to boycott what was widely perceived as an election that was neither free nor fair. Maduro’s response was to ban opposition parties from running at all. Furthermore, the use of the new Venezuelan “Fatherland Card” has many concerned. Maduro claims it will be used to build the new Venezuela, as it is used to access critical infrastructure such as healthcare, re-distributed food, and election systems. But critics of the card see it as a form of social control, as its use was required to vote in 2018 - and therefore could be used to pressure voters, track voting history, and identify supporters of Maduro’s opposition. Information stored on the card may even be cited as reasons to restrict state benefits from individuals.

This election, therefore, has not only further consolidated Maduro’s position, but has also tightened sociopolitical controls on Venezuelan society, using basic necessities as leverage, to keep it that way.

Trivia

-Lake Maracaibo is the world’s most active lightning strike site. During powerful storms in this area, lightning may strike up to 28 times per minute. There is an average of 260 storm days per year in this area.

-Venezuela was the first modern country to ban the death penalty for all crimes, doing so in 1863.

-Venezuela is the country with the second-highest rate of protected land, at about 54.1%. Only the French territory of New Caledonia has a higher rate (at 54.4%).

-Venezuelans often roller skate to Mass on Christmas Eve. This is especially popular in Caracas.

Why Democracies Don’t Fight Each Other

Credit: Aditya Joshi

International relations is, in dozens of ways, not as empirical of a study as the natural sciences. There are constant exceptions to trends, outliers in correlations, and participants defying the odds. Singapore has shown that state-controlled economic growth without natural resources or huge manpower is possible, and the United States has shown us that wealth alone does not lead to higher life expectancy. Scholars debate if democracy makes countries wealthier, but that has no explanation for why Ghana or Suriname remain relatively poor, despite having domestically stable elections. Their opponents state that wealth makes countries democratise, but that has no explanation for why Saudi Arabia or China remain authoritarian regimes, despite access to the world’s leading economies.

However, there is one theory that has yet to experience even a single major violation to the norm. That theory - known as the Democratic Peace Theory (DPT) - states that consolidated, identified, and robust democracies do not engage in, and have never engaged in, armed conflict with one another.

Immanuel Kant. Credit: Lapham’s Quarterly

The theory’s origin comes from the German philosopher Immanuel Kant, whose essay Towards Perpetual Peace identified three conditions for peace among democracies: the use of institutions in consolidated republics, identifiable unions of inter-state peace, and a philosophy of universal hospitality (though this has largely been replaced by an emphasis on trade and commerce).

Supporters of the DPT identify a number of reasons for why this is, and has been, the case. Stronger civil input over legislation to declare war, elected leaders being held responsible for human and financial loss, a strong and preferential reliance on institutional channels rather than conflict, the belief that other democracies are not hostile by default, and the desire for the preservation of resources are all pointed to as reasons for the upholding of the DPT.

The results of testing the DPT are overwhelmingly similar to its argument. In fact, no major war had taken place in the 20th century - or has yet taken place in the 21st century - between two consolidated, universally identified democracies. Both World Wars were fought against monarchical partial democracies, or authoritarian regimes. The Cold War can be briefly and easily described as a grand struggle between democracy and authoritarianism, and the more recent wars in the Middle East are overtly agreed upon as being against authoritarian rule (such as that of the Taliban, or Saddam Hussein).

Nevertheless, the DPT itself can still be debated, depending on one’s definitions of “democracy” and “war”. The First Balkan War is often seen as a violation of the theory, though its status of Serbia as a democracy at the time is not agreed upon. Others may point to the Six Day War’s clashes between Israel and Lebanon - though the conflict also included authoritarian regimes such as Syria, and therefore most likely cannot be considered an outright exception to the DPT. There are plenty of other examples which can be used to either defy or defend the DPT, but what history shows us is undeniable: the expansion of democracy around the world has a direct correlation with the expansion of peace shortly thereafter.

TAI Score: Degree 0. The phenomenon of the DPT contributes to international peace and security. It does not hold a perceivable negative impact of any kind - on the contrary, its presence provides an undeniable benefit to the international system.

Nigeria

Fast Facts

Location: West Africa

Capital: Abuja

Population: 217.7 million (2021)

Government Type: Federal Republic

Language(s): English, Yoruba, Hausa, Igbo (as well as over 500 other dialects)

Climate: Tropical (south), arid savannah (central), Sahelian desert (north)

GDP: USD $440.80 billion (2020)

Human Development Index Ranking: 0.539 (Low)

Overview

Nigeria is one of Africa’s most significant and important countries. It is the continent’s most populous, its largest economy by GDP, and the 3rd most ethnically diverse country not only in Africa, but in the entire world. Nigerian immigrants live across the world, with the USA, UK, and Canada being the most favoured alongside Australia, Germany, Spain, Italy, and South Africa. Famous Nigerians include professional athletes such as Israel Adesanya, legendary authors such as Chinua Achebe, and iconic musicians such as Fela Kuti.

And yet, despite so many important claims to fame and significant statistics, Nigeria still faces serious economic, security, and demographic issues. Nearly half of the population is under the age of 14, the terrorist group Boko Haram is active in the northern regions, and barriers to economic growth - such as poor infrastructure quality - cause the national economy to remain stunted.

History

Credit: Francis Tokede

It is worth noting that “Nigeria” as a singular country has only existed since 1914, but human habitation in the territory has existed for significantly longer. For that reason, the use of the term “Nigeria” prior to 1914 will specifically refer to “the area of modern-day Nigeria”.

The oldest evidence of human civilisation in modern-day Nigeria dates back to the Nok culture of roughly 500 BCE. Bronze Age archaeological finds in Nigeria identify artistic tradition, economic and religious relationships, and even evidence of trade - including coloured beads which may have come from modern-day Venice or India. By the 12th century, one of Africa’s first complex societies (known as the Igbo-Ukwu) arose as a trading empire, conducting exchange with the neighbouring Songhay, Yoruba, and Kaneem-Borno Empires. Igbo-Ukwu has been a major archaeological site for the discovery of advanced bronze-working techniques and artifacts. Debate exists over the validity of statements made regarding the “stateless-ness of pre-colonial Nigerian people”. Prior to the arrival of Europeans, Nigerians in the north lived in predominantly Muslim areas under a form of centralised government not entirely unlike European societies. But the disagreement lies with southern Nigerian, non-Muslim areas. Some historians believe that because of a lack of centralised state control, communities in these areas are unable to be considered “states” or “empires”. More recent viewpoints, however, identify that this is only true under the European definitions of “states” and “empires”, and that the idea of statelessness does not apply under the Nigerian definition of a pre-colonial community.

The first missionaries to Nigeria were Catholics sent by the Portuguese, arriving in 1515, though traders followed soon after, exchanging spices, spirits, and - eventually - slaves. Beginning in the end of the 16th century, the slave trade grew to eventually ship to the New World 3.5 million slaves from Nigeria alone. The level of wealth generated by both Europeans and African kings led to the erosion of pre-existing trading patterns - such as the conversion of markets into slave-raiding stations, and the increased competition among imperial states within Nigeria itself. Nigeria was directly colonised by the British in 1884, when the Royal Niger Company (established to control trade in the region) acquired a monopoly over its French rivals. However, British rule in Nigeria (as with other African colonies) maintained a state of indirect control, allowing traditional leaders to maintain customs and administer local institutions under supervision. This system, along with the spread of Christianity and European ideals, was far more welcomed in the southern regions - causing inequality and tensions with those to the north.

Like so many other European colonies, Nigeria slowly secured its independence in the years after the Second World War, with full independence being granted in 1960. It was only six years later, however, that a coup d’etat was staged by the military, due to political structure weaknesses and rapid polarisation between social factions. Muslim Hausas had begun massacring Christian Igbos, forcing them to flee to the east where they were more ethnically dominant. But they did not believe the Nigerian military government would support them - as such, they declared independence as the Republic of Biafra in July, 1967. This action, followed by failure to resolve it diplomatically, triggered a civil war responsible for the deaths of over an estimated one million people, primarily through starvation, over the course of three years. Since the civil war’s conclusion in 1970, Nigeria has remained a united - but shaky and corrupt - democracy.

Economy

Nigeria is one of Africa’s largest economy, heavily bolstered by the generation and export of oil and petroleum reserves. Although this is largely responsible for such growth (accounting for about 9% of national GDP), it is not a good thing - oil prices, and, by consequence, much of Nigeria’s economy, are subject to rapid and severe fluctuations on international markets. This also leads to extreme wealth inequality, given that the vast majority of oil-sourced revenues remain in the hands of the few individuals that oversee them. In fact, just five of Nigeria’s richest men collectively hold nearly USD $30 billion, in a country where approximately 112 million live in poverty. Nigeria’s main imports include wheat, medicine, cars, and telephones.

But the economic situation in Nigeria is not completely devastating. The inflation rate has been falling each year, the growth of the services sector has expanded each year, and new (often unusual) sources of unemployment reduction are always emerging. Nigeria’s global diaspora also guarantees a source of incoming finances from external, wealthier countries.

The Hustle Capital of the World

Lekki Market in Lagos, Nigeria. Credit: Shawn Leishman via LSE

Nigeria’s informal economy is colossal - an estimated 200 million people (about 80% of the national population) are engaged in unregulated, simple transaction-based businesses, the third highest rate in the world (behind only Zimbabwe and Afghanistan). Perhaps more importantly, wealth generated by the informal economy is (understandably) not included in the national GDP - signaling that the actual amount of wealth generated per year in Nigeria is likely far higher than reported. This state of affairs comes from the context of already low market regulation, weak national policies, rapid urbanisation and demographic shifts, high unemployment, and a lack of mandatory registration of businesses with the government. As such, those who cannot find work normally, will often turn to “hustles” to afford essentials.

So, what kind of hustles do Nigerian people turn to? The short answer is, nearly anything and everything. The World Bank estimates that it includes day labourers, domestic workers, industrial workers, and more. More specifically, the Bank of Industry lists jobs including (but by no means limited to) street traders, subsistence farmers, small scale manufacturers, and private service providers (hairdressers, taxi drivers, carpenters, etc.). Many global economists do not look particularly favourably upon these informal businesses - their lack of taxed income means a loss (especially large in developing nations) of GDP for countries which could be spent on roads, schools, hospitals, and energy production. In Nigeria, this is especially true, given that an estimated USD $1.2 billion is generated by this economy alone. But optimists say that due to its extremely flexible and entrepreneurial nature, some of the least developed countries are able to point to the informal sector as being responsible for up to 90% of national employment. Furthermore, in times of crisis, informal economies are often turned to by local people due to their more reasonable prices.

Trivia

-Every year, on May 29th, Nigeria celebrates Democracy Day to mark the anniversary of the second restoration of civil administration following military rule.

-The town of Igbo-Ora has an extra high birth rate, due to it being the twin capital of the world. An estimated 16% of all live births result in twin children in this town, possibly due to dietary preferences supporting fertility.

-Nigerians are the most educated immigrant community in the United States. While the American national average for holding a university degree is 30%, this figure is as high as 60% among the Nigerian community there.

-The total number of languages in Nigeria equal 7% of all languages spoken in the world.

Singapore: A Story of Growth

Credit: Chuttersnap

Singapore may very well be the most significant demographic and economic success story of any country the 20th century. From 1984 to 2018, the city-state’s GDP rose from USD $20 billion to USD $377 billion. This level of growth is rarely seen anywhere else in the world , and certainly not in the timeframe of just three decades (with the exception of a handful of smaller East Asian nations known as Tiger Economies). By 1995, Singapore had an economy boasting twice as many manufactured exports as Brazil, and generating wealth 10% the size of China’s GDP while being home to an amount of people equivalent to 0.25% of China’s population. Even compared to its peers, however, Singapore is more of an exception to the rule of free market economics and democracy. The same political party (People’s Action Party, or PAP) has more or less been in power since 1959, with Lee Kuan Yew leading it for thirty years following undesired Singaporean independence. So how exactly did this small, relatively undemocratic city-state achieve such a significant presence on the world stage to become so wealthy?

After independence from the British in 1957, Singapore became one of the 14 states that constituted the nation of Malaysia. Singapore, however, was unique in that it was far more multi-ethnic than the rest of Malaysia, being home to people with origins in India, China, and Indonesia. As such, it quickly found itself at odds with the Malaysian government’s policies of granting special rights for ethnic Malaysians, with riots even breaking out in 1964. As such, Singapore was expelled from Malaysia after a mere 23 months - becoming the only nation in the world to achieve independence against its will.

Lee Kuan Yew, “The Father of Singapore”. Credit: Encyclopedia Britannica

The early post-independence years were difficult for Singapore. Trade with Indonesia had significantly declined due to the riots, British military withdrawal left thousands unemployed, and the idea of “Singapore” as a standalone nation had not taken hold in the minds of most. But Singapore’s geographic location is extremely favourable, being located immediately astride one of the world’s most significant shipping lanes. Furthermore, identifying that the small size of the population and overall lack of natural resources posed an obstacle, the PAP instead turned to creating a more economically open society, attracting money from overseas by eliminating nearly all tariffs and encouraging international competition to take place. Today, the corporate tax rate in Singapore for all businesses is currently at 17%, with income tax rates sitting at a maximum of just 22%.

Perhaps more importantly, however, is that the Singaporean government (and, by consequence, mainly the PAP) closely monitors where and how incoming finances are spent. This trend, however, is the key to Singapore’s success. Government expenditures focus closely on two sectors: education and healthcare. Singapore spent an estimated USD $13 billion on education in 2021, and an estimated USD $11 billion on healthcare in the same year, with about 3% of each budget being also spent on respective improvements and development. The effects and outcomes of these expenditures are clear: Singapore ranks 5th worldwide in life expectancy, 9th in the world for education quality, 6th for healthcare quality, 8th for GDP per capita, 11th for human development, and 7th for overall safety.

To put it in perspective: by attracting investment from abroad and spending it on critical infrastructure that people need, thus maintaining political stability, the Singaporean government has successfully achieved the above figures within just one generation.

TAI Score: Degree 0. Economic growth in Singapore has provided a colossal improvement to the quality of life for the average Singaporean in an unusually short amount of time. While somewhat non-democratic practices and corruption remain salient, this has not stopped businesses from pursuing their fortune in the city. There is little for threat assessors to keep an eye out for at this time.

Brazil

Fast Facts

Location: Latin America

Capital: Brasilia

Population: 215.8 million (2022)

Government Type: Democratic federative republic

Language: Portuguese

Climate: Humid tropical/subtropical (with an arid region in the northeast)

GDP: USD $1.61 trillion (2021)

Human Development Index Ranking: 0.765 (Moderate-High)

Overview

Brazil is an enormous country that dominates much of the Latin American continent. It boasts the continent’s largest economy, its largest population, its largest geographic size, its second largest tourist population (behind only Argentina), and the world’s third largest agricultural production rate (behind only the United States and China). Brazil is a hugely important and impressive country in nearly every regard - but internal problems persist nevertheless. Deforestation due to the expansion of agriculture and livestock is significant, corruption remains a concern across nearly all public services, and crime rates remain high. It is, therefore, extremely difficult to make any generalisations about Brazil - but one can certainly state that it is a country of both enormous successes, and equally enormous difficulties.

History

A Romantic depiction of the first Portuguese landing in Brazil. Credit: SciHi.org

The pre-colonial history of Brazil is poorly understood due to the lack of a centralised civilisation in the area, leaving few archaeological discoveries, but by the arrival of Portuguese Europeans in the 1500s, it is estimated that there existed about 1000 different tribes totaling somewhere between 2 and 6 million people. The first permanent Portuguese settlement, created for the ability to harvest sugarcane and brazilwood for dyes, was established near modern-day Sao Paulo in 1532, with the first national capital (Salvador) settled 17 years later. As a Portuguese colony, and even after independence in 1822, Brazil was the epicenter of the slave trade, with an estimated 4 million Africans being sent there over the course of 300 years (accounting for approximately one-third of all slaves, more than any other country in the Americas). Brazil was the last country to abolish slavery, doing so in 1888, though many Brazilians had already decided to liberate their slaves on their own beforehand, due to the modernisation of agriculture and increasing urbanisation, leaving little purpose in retaining the practice of rural, agrarian slavery.

Towards the end of the 19th century, a military coup, led by Deodoro da Fonseca, overthrew the Brazilian monarchy, establishing the new federative republic and drafting a new constitution modeled after that of the United States’. Under this constitution, however, democracy was not completely guaranteed - while the country’s “Coffee Presidents” (so-called because of their origins from coffee-rich provinces) oversaw peace and stability, they were also indirectly responsible for election fraud and the ability for only wealthy landowners to vote. By 1929, the effects of the Great Depression caused demand for coffee to plummet, leading to widespread unrest throughout Brazil, ending with the army installing Getulio Vargas - a dictator - as president in 1937. Despite ruling as an autocrat, Vargas aligned Brazil with the Allies during WWII, making it the only South American nation to join the Allies and send forces to the European theatre of war.

15 years after the German defeat, Vargas was no longer the Brazilian dictator, and the country had entered a reasonably long period of democracy. Three publicly elected presidents had served terms (of varying length), and the capital had been moved to the newly founded Brasilia. But the economy had been faltering, causing mass inequality over a prolonged period of time, and anti-communist sentiment had existed for long enough for the army to stage another coup d’etat and seize control. Although democracy was crushed and censorship became rife, it was during this period that Brazil’s “economic miracle” occurred. Efforts to attract foreign direct investment meant that exports expanded in both diversity and amount, public infrastructure developments took place, and GDP began growing by 11% annually. But the striking of workers in Sao Paulo allowing for the restoration of trade unions, the allowance of political parties, and the election of Tancredo Neves (who died before taking office) signaled the end of Brazil’s military rule.

Economy

Brazil has the world’s eighth largest economy in the world, with approximately 75% of GDP being generated by the services sector - an indication of a highly developed economic landscape. Major exports of Brazil include soybeans, iron ore, crude petroleum, and beef to the world’s largest markets (mainly China, Canada, Argentina, and the US), while imports consist largely of medical equipment, automotive machinery, and advanced electronics.

Despite being largely unaffected by the 2008 financial crisis, Brazil’s economy was hit by a serious recession - the country’s worst ever - in the mid 2010’s, with GDP shrinking by 3% for the first three quarters of 2015. In fact, the national GDP of Brazil still has not returned to its peak of USD $2.62 trillion in 2011. The recession was caused by falls in Brazil’s main export commodity prices, inflation mismanagement, and a lack of investment in the state-owned Petrobras oil company.

The economy has begun to recover from the additional effects of COVID-19, which has also badly affected the country, but any hopes for another Brazilian economic miracle like that of the 1970s do not appear to be on the horizon - yet.

Deforestation: Just How Severe Is It, and What is Being Done About It?

Credit: Reuters, via BBC

Brazil’s largest environmental issue has been a widespread problem for decades. Losses of trees and biodiversity in the Amazon rainforest have accelerated under President Jair Bolsonaro, who has encouraged the expansion of agricultural and mining activities in the area, sending deforestation rates to a 12-year high in 2020. The Amazon Aid Foundation identifies a number of negative effects from the destruction of the rainforest, including the disruption of livelihood for indigenous peoples, increased pollution, and more.

Fortunately, the situation is not entirely bleak. In 2004, Brazil introduced its Action Plan for the Prevention and Control of Deforestation of the Amazon. Prior to the implementation of this plan, the Amazon’s deforestation rate stood at 27,700 square kilometers per year - a number which decreased to 4,500 square kilometers per year by 2012. Furthermore, in April 2021, nine corporate giants and three national governments (the USA, UK, and Norway) joined forces to raise over USD $1 billion to protect the forest and accelerate sustainable development. USAID in Brazil also seeks to ensure that economic development is carried out in the most vulnerable communities, in order to reduce the need for agriculture-based land clearing. But the rainforest’s fate will be greatly, and likely, ultimately, determined by the results of Brazil’s 2023 presidential election, as the foreign minister of the current president has stated that “there is no climate crisis”, and Bolsonaro himself has implicitly rallied against environmental protection efforts.

Trivia

-Brazil shares a border with every South American country, except for Ecuador and Chile.

-Due to French Guyana being formal French territory, France’s longest international border is with Brazil, rather than any European county.

-20 miles off of the coast of Sao Paulo lies an island that is strictly forbidden to access without permission from the Brazilian navy, due to it being home to an enormous amount of extremely venomous snakes - an estimated 1 per square meter.

-Commentors during WWII stated that “One would be more likely to see a smoking snake, than a Brazilian fighting force in Europe”. When Brazil entered the war as part of the Allies, the expeditionary force chose a cobra with a cigar as their identifying patch.

The World’s Last Divided Capital

Older readers likely remember when the Berlin Wall finally fell in 1989, signalling the de facto conclusion of the fifty-year long Cold War. Famous photographs and videos exist of Germans taking to the streets of Berlin and physically tearing the wall down to be re-united with friends, families, and countrymen. Although fragments of the Wall remain, in both personal collections and in central Berlin, its purpose has (much like the Wall itself) been shattered.

But there is still a city which has not yet been as fortunate as Berlin.

A map shows the current demarcation lines between Cyprus and the area invaded by Turkey. Credit: New World Encyclopedia

Nicosia lies in central Cyprus, just south of the Kyrenia Range mountains. Its 200,000 people live in a strange reality: the city is the world’s last divided capital. Across the island, and directly through Nicosia, stretches a UN buffer zone, also known as the “Green Line”, that keeps two opposing sides of an armed conflict apart. Curiously, however, it wasn’t the result of a civil war - it was actually a full-scale invasion by Turkey that took place.

In the mid-1950’s Cyprus existed as a British colony consisting of both an ethnic Greek majority, and ethnic Turkish minority, Cypriots. The island’s independence came when demonstrations against British colonial rule turned violent - with a series of bombing attacks and riots, lasting for approximately two years, eventually leading to an agreement being reached that declared Cyprus an independent republic (though two British military bases remain).

But independence was not the only goal of the Cypriot population. Enosis, or the incorporation of Cyprus as a part of Greece, had been deeply ingrained into the movement of the pro-independence population - even after its leader, the later president Makarios, dropped it from negotiations with the British. By 1974, a coup d’etat in Athens, Greece, placed a fiercely anti-communist and former Cypriot National Guard military leader (Dimitrios Ioannides) in power. Ioannides held close suspicions of Makarios due to his left-wing support in Cyprus and visits to the capitals of communist nations. Under the instruction of Greek military officers, the Cypriot national guard staged their own coup, overthrowing Makarios and seeking to establish enosis under Nikos Sampson, the new president of Cyprus.

To the north, the Turkish government found itself unhappy with the events unfolding in Cyprus. In their eyes, the Turkish minority of Cyprus were being oppressed under a military junta that was forcing them to be a part of a nation they held no allegiance to. Turkish government sources state that Turkish Cypriots were even forced from their homes into refugee camps and forced to survive in a state of violence they were unable to influence the outcome of.

Turkish troops make landfall in Cyprus. Credit: Lobby for Cyprus

Merely five days after Nikos Sampson took office, the Turkish military invaded the northern coast of Cyprus, conquering a mere 3% of the island before agreeing to a ceasefire organised by the UN Security Council. But this ceasefire was short-lived. One month later, by as early as the second round of negotiations, the Turkish military had gone back on the offensive, advancing to claim nearly 40% of the island. The newly drafted ceasefire reflects the current UN-defined and enforced Green Line that runs through Nicosia. The Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus was later declared as a sovereign state, though it is recognised by no UN member state aside from Turkey.

To this day, UN forces remain in Cyprus to enforce the ceasefire line, which continues to leave Nicosia as the world’s last divided capital city. The future for this city - and entire island - are not clear. Although little progress has been made to reunify, and remove Turkish troops from the island, relations have slowly improved over time. Humanitarian aid has been allowed to be carried out, and in 2008, more border crossing points were opened by both parties. But with the ever-uncertain nature of Turkish politics, it' remains to be seen what happens with the diplomatic Rubik’s cube that is modern Nicosia.

TAI Score: Degree 2. While the situation has changed little since 1974, so has the emergence of its solution. The island remains divided and a source of tension between two NATO allies. The increasingly authoritarian rule of Erdogan has done little to remedy the situation. While the growth of tensions is currently not on the horizon, risk assessors should remain wary and vigilant.

Ethiopia

Fast Facts

Location: East Africa

Capital: Addis Ababa

Population: 118 million (2021)

Government Type: Federal Republic

Language: Amharic, local dialects and languages

Climate: High variation (equatorial rainforest, alpine mountains, and arid desert conditions)

GDP: USD $111 billion (2021)

Human Development Index Ranking: 0.485 (Low)

Overview

Ethiopia is perhaps one of the most culturally unique, and socio-politically unique, countries in Africa. Located on the continent’s eastern Horn, it is one of the only two countries to have never been completely colonised by Europeans (the other being Liberia, which was founded by freed American slaves). It is home to the Ethiopian Orthodox Church, one of the oldest Christian denominations in the world, and is the site where one of the oldest prehistoric human remains (aged approximately 3.2 million years old) have been discovered - awarding Ethiopia the title “Cradle of Humankind” by archaeologists. But claims to fame are not enough to grant Ethiopia stability and success: armed conflict has recently arisen within the country’s north, and food insecurity remains a perennial issue. Needless to say, Ethiopia’s future - and even its present - remains fairly uncertain.

History

Credit: Yohannes Minas

Ethiopia is perhaps one of the oldest civilisations in human history. Although skeletal remains aged millions of years old have been discovered there, its identity as we know it more or less stretches back to 980 BCE. The rise of agriculture led to the establishment of the Kingdom of Da’amat, which specialised in trade to southern Arabian groups. Da’amat came to be displaced and overtaken by the Kingdom of Aksum, which established itself as a major trading empire and link between the Roman Empire, the Middle East, and India. By as early as the 4th century, Christianity had become the official state religion of Ethiopia, though Aksum had been destroyed by Queen Gudit - thus establishing the Zagwe Dynasty, of which a fairly low amount of definitive information (such as the name of the last king, or how many kings there were) is known. By the 16th century, Ethiopia had been conquered by a Muslim general named Ahmad Gran (though, upon his death at the hands of a Portuguese soldier, many Ethiopians converted back to Orthodox Christianity). There are, however, few kings as revered in Ethiopia as Menelik II, who successfully defended Ethiopia from the industrialised invading Italian force in the late 19th century. The Battle of Adwa is still celebrated in Ethiopia to this day.

Menelik was, however, the penultimate emperor of Ethiopia. Haile Selassie, his successor, was a pivotal figure in both Ethiopian and international politics, having attempted to modernise the nation, and speaking many times at the UN’s predecessor, the League of Nations. But towards the end of his reign, Ethiopians were faced with famine, war, and the (eventual) loss of Eritrea as a province. The Derg, a Marxist force led by Mengistu Haile Mariam, overthrew Emperor Selassie in the 1970s, attempting to establish communist reforms nationwide. The collectivisation of agriculture led to further famine, and civil war, forcing Mengistu to flee to Zimbabwe.

Eritrea’s war of independence, however, would turn into a much longer-term issue than expected. The town of Badme - a small market town with seemingly minimal value to either Ethiopia or Eritrea - found itself claimed by both countries, a dispute which swiftly flared into armed conflict, to remain unresolved until mid-2018.

Economy

Despite a large population and a lack of colonial institutions and setbacks, Ethiopia’s economy faces great difficulty. Climate change is altering rainfall patterns and creating food insecurities nationwide, and the state’s planned economy is stunting growth. The country’s main exports include agricultural and commodity goods, such as coffee, leather, and gold, primarily to the USA, Europe, and Gulf States. Major imports, however, include much more expensive fuel and aviation equipment - mostly from China, the USA, India, and the Gulf States. Political polarisation, particularly in the country’s northern provinces, further causes issues with economic output and growth. Finally, the financial burden of an extremely young and rapidly growing population will continue to cost more of the country’s money than it generates.

But Ethiopia’s economic history and projections seem to lean positively. The country’s GDP has risen almost nonstop each year since 1994, the average life expectancy has risen by 20 years since the mid-1990’s, and the government has a firmly defined Plan for Accelerated and Sustained Development to End Poverty (PASDEP). This plan has shown strong progress in reducing extreme poverty nationwide - with the number of people living on less than USD $1.90 per day falling from 71% in 1990 to 30% in 2015. Lastly, major infrastructure developments have taken place over the past few decades. Ethiopia Airlines has become a major regional carrier, the national road network has greatly expanded, and access to sufficient sanitation has become guaranteed for a growing number of people.

The Tigrayans: Who They Are, and What They Want

Federal troops in Oromo patrol New Year celebrations. Credit: Hudson Institute

In the mid-1970s, during the leadership of Mengistu Haile Mariam, the TPLF (Tigrayan Peoples’ Liberation Front) formed to combat the Marxist junta that ruled the country. After the fall of the Mariam regime, the TPLF became an ethnic identity-based political party that held the most sway in politics - despite being populated by the Tigrayan ethnic minority (accounting for approximately 7% of the overall population). The coalition government created by the TPLF gave regional autonomy, but maintained tight control over the central government - often oppressively so.

But the 2018 national election, placing Abiy Ahmed in power as Prime Minister, signaled a shift away from the TPLF’s ruling coalition for the first time in decades. Ahmed’s goal was to reform Ethiopia across the board by reducing authoritarianism, re-centralising the government, and improving relations with neighbours - particularly Eritrea. Such practices angered the Tigrayans, who perceived themselves as rapidly losing influence and political power to a member of the Ethiopian ethnic majority. By September of 2020, parliamentary elections were held in Tigray, despite Ahmed’s federal government postponing them due to the COVID-19 pandemic, and dismissing them as invalid. The TPLF, in response, assaulted a nearby federal military base, triggering the extremely bloody civil war - which is currently considered ongoing, but currently far less violent.

Trivia

-Ethiopia has the most UNESCO World Heritage sites of any country in Africa, boasting 9 of such locations.

-Ethiopia has over 80 spoken languages, with 5 of them being recognised as “working” languages. English is the most common foreign language.

-Dallol, in Ethiopia’s Danakil Depression, is both the lowest point in Africa, and the hottest place on Earth (with an average temperature of 34.4 degrees Celsius).

-Ethiopia’s Abebe Bikila was the first Black African to win an Olympic gold medal. In 1960, Bikila only made the team due to another athlete breaking his foot. He would go on to run the marathon barefoot, outrunning an opponent by a full 25 seconds.

Why Is Myanmar So Authoritarian?

It’s difficult to make any generalised statements about Southeast Asia. There are (depending on how you frame your definition of “Southeast Asia”) between 6 and 12 countries with over 350 recognised ethnic groups across the Peninsula alone, totaling a population of nearly 700 million people speaking an estimated 1200 different languages region-wide. Politically, the situation is no less diverse, as Thailand functions as a constitutional monarchy where the king is revered as an almost sacred figure, whilst neighbouring Vietnam acts as a single-party socialist state. One country in particular, however, has made headlines fairly consistently over the past few years due to the actions of its military-led regime (or junta), and has led people to ask:

Why is Myanmar so authoritarian?

General Aung San stands outside of 10 Downing Street in 1947, immediately after negotiating Burmese independence. Credit: Encyclopedia Britannica

The origin of the answer is found in the post-colonial era which, for Myanmar (or Burma, as it was then known) secured independence from the British in 1948. The newly established democracy only lasted for 10 years, however, before handing excessive amounts of power to the military (or Tatmadaw) in order to help suppress ethnic rebellions and deal with the sociopolitical fallout of economic decline. A decade later, a coup d’etat was staged by General Ne Win in 1962, establishing a new constitution that emphasised isolationist policy and a socialist economic program. Such a disastrous handling of the economy later led to mass protests in 1988. As the protests grew, however, Aung San Suu Kyi had established herself as a leader, keeping up the pace of the demonstrations’ momentum for two years - at which point, Ne Win had resigned (though was still in a position of great power), and the first multiparty elections were held. In these elections, Suu Kyi’s newly formed National League for Democracy (NLD) party won an overwhelming number of seats in the national Parliament. The military, however, maintained an overwhelming amount of power in Myanmar despite allowing elections to take place.

The first half of the 2010’s can be somewhat viewed as a “golden age” for democratic progress in Myanmar. Amnesty for more than 200 political prisoners was established in 2011, a ceasefire with ethnic rebels was signed and sanctions were eased in 2012, and more civil and economic freedoms were allowed in 2013. But the latter half of the decade witnessed something of a return to autocracy - violent suppression of ethnic minorities in the Kokang and Rakhine provinces (among others) took place, with Suu Kyi defending Myanmar against charges of genocide in The Hague in 2020. In early 2021, a refusal by opposition leaders to recognise the NLD’s valid re-election led to a failure for either group to establish a functional government - which the military resolved by declaring a state of emergency and seizing control. Violent protests broke out, but the country remains under full military rule to this day.

Min Aung Hlaing serves as Myanmar’s de facto leader following the 2021 coup. Credit: Ye Aung Thu, via Bloomberg

Ultimately, Myanmar remains authoritarian due to ethnic divisions and a legacy of the Tatmadaw’s over-involvement in political affairs. With respect to ethnic divisions, scholars have debated ideas such as whether colonial legacies have created friction between these groups, or whether economic inequality across groups and geography leads to public resentment. However, one thing is for certain: tension certainly exists due to the fact that Myanmar’s government does not recognise the Rohingya at all, refusing them citizenship and excluding them from censuses, instead seeing them as illegal immigrants from Bangladesh. Such tensions create conflict, which the government likely sees as possible to pre-emptively crush by maintaining an autocratic regime.

At this time, it’s not clear what can be done to promote democracy in Myanmar. The recent coup, combined with the effects of the pandemic, have left Myanmar’s economy in a state of crisis, and food insecurity is growing - leading to the belief that such violence as witnessed thus far will only grow more drastic. Foreign ministers in the West (as well as South Korea) have accused the Tatmadaw of bearing responsibility for the series of crises currently rocking Myanmar, stating that it has “gravely undermined peace and stability in Myanmar and the region”. But with the military stating that its state of emergency will be extended to 2023, it seems that authoritarianism in the country is, once again, here to stay.

TAI Score: Degree 3. Human security and democratic values remain considerably threatened by civil war in Myanmar. This is causing a complete ostracisation of the country from international meetings, and causing a continued refugee crisis in neighbouring countries. While the full impact outside of Myanmar’s immediate area remains moderate at most, threat assessors should ensure that issues surrounding transnational crime are not taking place in business practices.