Vietnam

Fast Facts

Location: Southeast Asia

Capital: Hanoi

Population: 97.3 million (2020)

Government Type: Single Party Socialism

Language: Vietnamese (with French, English, and other local languages used)

Climate: Tropical, with seasonal monsoon rains

GDP: USD $362.64 billion (2021)

Human Development Index Ranking: 0.704 (Moderate-High)

Overview

Vietnam is densely forested, hilly nation of nearly 100 million people located in Southeast Asia, bordering Cambodia, Laos, and Thailand. Its growth out of its state of destructive warfare in the mid-20th century can be described as almost miraculous: the population growth rate is slowly stabilising, GDP has grown steadily each year since 1989, and the political situation remains secure. In other areas, however, new issues are appearing or remaining unsolved, such as environmental concerns, an estimated 2 million children classified as “extremely vulnerable”, and a worrying trend of government censorship and restriction of civil freedoms. Whether Vietnam can continue to capitalise on its success thus far, or face a never-ending struggle against issues that hold it back, certainly remains to be seen in the coming decades.

History

A traditional set of housing sits among rice fields. Credit: Peter Hammer

The history of Vietnam is marked by two key characteristics: its relationship with China, and ongoing struggle defending against foreign invaders. The first record of “Vietnamese” people as we know them come from the 3rd century BCE, when Chinese settlers moved southwards towards modern-day Yunnan, Guangxi, and Guangdong. In 111 BC, the Han Dynasty of China annexed Vietnam, retaining it for a full millennium, but being unable to eliminate the local peoples’ distinct identity. Independence was secured when, during a time of political instability in China, the Vietnamese military general Khuc Thua Du staged a revolt that the weakened Tang Chinese government was forced to accept the terms of. Later attempts to re-conquer Vietnam would be repelled by Ngo Quyen, whose tactics were so successful that they would be imitated by later generals fighting off the Chinese, and even the Mongols, in the centuries to come. The following period, when Vietnam was known as Dai Viet, would be characterised by a series of monarchies that heavily fostered a sense of identity and nationalism in local people. These kingdoms would expand through a series of invasions known as Nam Tien (or March to the South), attacking the Champa to the south in 1471 and bringing about the downfall of its kingdom - thus establishing the approximate borders of modern-day Vietnam.

French colonisation of Vietnam began in the mid-1850s, with attempts of establishing and imposing a European-style system of government on the local populations (as was the French method of colonisation). This system caused mass inequality, as only the French and a very small number of elite Vietnamese merchants received the benefits of resource extraction and exploitation (for example, rice production quadrupled, but the peasantry class actually had less to eat per capita). After the two World Wars, Vietnam (led by Ho Chi Minh, a communist) declared independence from France. France’s rejection of Vietnam’s independence led to the communist Viet Minh waging guerrilla warfare, supported by the Soviet Union and China. Unfortunately, a 1954 UN led peace conference in Geneva was unable to keep the country peacefully divided, and a devastating, 20-year war broke out between the communist north and democratic south, directly supported by the United States (who were actively engaged in open combat throughout the country).

Following the conclusion of the war in the mid-1970s, the president of the newly unified Vietnam, Nguyen Van Linh, served as “Vietnam’s Gorbachev”, passing reforms (known as the Doi Moi) that reduced restrictions and attracted foreign investment - worrying hardline communists, but creating a system in which Vietnam has been able to socio-economically grow while remaining politically stable. Vietnam remains as one of the few communist countries today, though (like most, if not all communist nations) it has significantly adapted away from hardline, traditional Marxism in order to survive.

Economy

Vietnam is a country that meets most - if not all - of the pre-conditions for economic success. The country boasts a young population, a strong manufacturing industry, political stability, reliable foreign investment, low inflation, and a favourable view of free trade agreements. The results are clear and as expected: the Doi Moi has taken Vietnam from one of the world’s poorest countries, to a middle-income economy in a single generation, and poverty rates (internationally defined at receiving USD $1.90 or less per day) have fallen from 32% in 2011 to less than 2% today. Vietnam also currently holds a trade surplus (exporting more goods than it is importing), with electronics (such as mobile phones and televisions) being the top export - a product of significance as price fluctuations on global markets are rare.

But the economy of Vietnam does not have any more of a guarantee for success than any other. The country’s population is aging, global trade is declining, and automation in the manufacturing industry is increasing - all trends accelerated by the COVID-19 pandemic. Approximately 40% of Vietnam’s population also still works in agricultural production, an industry whose size has led to welfare decline for farmers, concerns about food safety, environmental degradation, and more. Vietnam is also especially vulnerable to climate change, with reports indicating it is one of the countries that will be most heavily impacted by rising sea levels and more powerful storms. Needless to say, the impact of these effects on the national economy could very well be severe.

Vietnam and China: Similar Systems, Opposing Agendas

The General Secretary of the Communist Party of Vietnam (CPV), Nguyen Phu Trong, pays an official visit to China in 2017. Credit: Xinhua News Agency, via the Institute for Security and Development Policy.

As discussed above, the relationship between China and Vietnam is ancient, and often hostile. Despite both countries sharing a border and comparable political systems, a state of wariness exists between China and Vietnam that remains very much in place today. It may trace its origins to the centuries of occupation under the Chinese, after which Vietnamese identity was more or less founded, or from the series of failed Chinese invasions that took place afterward. Or it may trace its origins to a more recent period, when China actually invaded Vietnam as recently as 1979 - less than a decade after the Vietnam War’s conclusion. This conflict erupted as a response to Vietnam’s alignment with the Soviet Union - as opposed to China - in diplomatic and economic affairs, and Vietnam’s elimination of the pro-Beijing (and extremely genocidal) Khmer Rouge in Cambodia.

Today, tensions remain due to ongoing disputes over maritime claims in the South China Sea. China claims a majority of these waters as its own - most likely due to the huge reserves of natural resources there - though their ownership is also disputed by not only Vietnam, but also Brunei, Taiwan, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Indonesia. Further, China is believed to have dredged sediment onto existing coral reefs, such as the Paracel and Spratly Islands, transforming them into islands upon which satellite imagery shows a growth in military infrastructure. Such actions place neighbouring countries such as Vietnam on alert, as the presence of Chinese forces in the area threatens both trade and national security. At this time, it is believed that while the threat of conflict in the South China Sea are low, it is slowly growing each year.

Trivia

-The largest cave in the world - known as Hang Son Doong - exists in Vietnam. It was discovered as recently as 2009, opened to the public in 2013, and even boasts underground rainforests. It is even believed to be wide enough to fly a Boeing 747 through.

-Despite being located in Southeast Asia, and entirely unlike its neighbours, Vietnam uses the Latin alphabet in common writing. This is due to a writing system being developed by Portuguese missionaries and French scholars in the 17th century.

-Although only 15% of Vietnam’s people followed its teachings in 2018, Buddhism is the most widely practiced religion in Vietnam. About 81% of Vietnamese people are either irreligious or follow traditional folk beliefs.

-Vietnam’s foreign affairs stance holds a strong position called the Four No’s, which consist of a commitment to: 1) No partaking in military alliances, 2) No aligning with one country to act against another, 3) No foreign military bases in Vietnamese territory or using Vietnam as leverage to act against other countries, and 4) No use of force to pursue a goal in international relations.

Why Does Latin America Have So Many Japanese Immigrants?

The average person is no stranger to immigrant communities in their country. In 2016, nearly 1.2 million people immigrated to the United States, and over half a million to the United Kingdom. Generally speaking, these people come from all over the world to escape conflict, pursue economic opportunity, or join family (in a process known as chain migration). Migration trends are always in a state of flux as well, with issues such as the UK’s 2016 EU Referendum, the Russian invasion of Ukraine earlier this year, or issues surrounding climate change causing spikes in immigration rates. But there is one immigration trend that may strike the average reader as both unexpected and puzzling, and they may find themselves asking: why does Latin America have so many Japanese immigrants?

Credit: Illinois State University

As with so many socio-political trends, the answer goes back at least a century. By the mid-1800s, the Japanese political system was in a transitional state. The military general (“shogun”) who had ruled Japan lost his power to merchant and other groups seeking interactions with outside powers, and supreme authority being restored to the emperor. The emperor’s new approach was to rapidly re-structure Japan to mimic European powers through a series of reforms known as the Meiji Restoration. The goals of the Meiji Restoration were to reduce a dependency on agriculture, and industrialise Japan by promoting the cautious introduction of both Western technology and culture.

So what does this have to do with Latin America in particular, and why it has so many Japanese immigrants?

Credit: University of Pittsburgh

The consequences of the Meiji Restoration, particularly a shift away from agriculture, caused high rates of unemployment and inequality throughout Japan - particularly in rural areas. Initial migrants (known as Nikkei, or overseas migrants of Japanese descent) to Hawaii were met with poor treatment, leading to the prohibition by the Meiji government for Japanese people to seek a future there. But the Chinese Exclusion Act of 1882 made American employers more eager to attract Japanese migrants - until 1924, when the Federal Immigration Act banned all Asian workers from entering the USA (which was already limited by the Japanese government). Many Asians - Japanese, in particular, therefore sought economic opportunity in neighbouring Latin America in the early 1900s. By the middle of the century, this trend increased significantly following the widespread destruction of Japan throughout the Second World War. More recently, members of the Nikkei communities of Latin America have been seeking to emigrate to Japan following the revision of Japanese immigration laws in 1990. The trend is believed to be useful to the economies of both Japan and the Latin American countries that the Nikkei come from - primarily Brazil, as these migrants send finances to the country their ancestors emigrated to decades (or more) ago.

Today, the descendants of Japanese migrants to the Americas - both North and South - can find civic engagement opportunities and a sense of community in PANA, the Pan-American Nikkei Association (or COPANI depending on whether the English or Spanish name is used).

TAI Score: Degree 0. The presence of Japanese-descended immigrants does not pose a threat for Latin American or Japanese societies. Risk assessors have nothing to monitor in this regard.

Iran

Fast Facts

Location: Middle East

Capital: Tehran

Population: 84 million (2021)

Government Type: Unitary Theocratic (Islamic) Republic

Language(s): Farsi, local languages

Climate: Dry, hot, and arid, with more temperate areas along the Caspian Sea coast

GDP: USD $231.55 billion (2020)

Human Development Index Ranking: 0.783 (Moderate-High)

Overview

Iran is a hugely significant power on both a regional and global level - and has been, on and off, since the days of the Persian Empire. It still appears in the news on a frequent basis, often in relation to something involving the United States, Israel, or other major actors. But it is also a mountainous country with verdant gardens, abundant resources, and Zoroastrianism - one of the oldest religions in the world. Due to a fairly autocratic political situation and practices viewed as unfavourable, however, sanctions from Europe, Israel, and North America have largely suppressed Iran, causing an unstable economy and a life expectancy just slightly above the global average. As such, Iran finds itself aligned with the Syrian government, Russia, Iraq, Yemen’s Houthi rebels, and the Lebanese Hezbollah.

History

Credit: Sajad Nori

The first Aryan tribes are believed to have migrated to the plateau approximately 5,000 years ago, though Paleolithic remains as old as 100,000 years have been found in the region. The founders of the Persian Empire were members of a semi-nomadic tribe living on the Iranian plateau in approximately 550 BCE, and united three of the most important sites in the ancient world: Mesopotamia, the Indus River Vally, and the Nile River Valley. The empire would last for two generations before Emperor Xerxes’ failed campaign to conquer Greece, followed by Alexander the Great’s conquest, caused it to collapse in 334 BCE. Various empires, such as the Parthians and Sassanids, spent the next several centuries vying for control of the Iranian plateau. Prior to Muslim Arab conquests in the 7th century, Zoroastrianism had been the primary religion of modern-day Iran. While these conquests did firmly establish Islam within Iran, Iranian culture and nationalism were left largely intact - and still are to this day.

A century after Islamic culture had taken hold in the country, Persians adapted Islam to fit a local context, with their own people participating at the forefront of the Golden Age of Islam. As with countless other nations at the time, Persia would then collapse at the hands of the Mongol Empire - though not for long, as Mongolian incursions into the Islamic world did not stretch particularly far. The Safavid Empire, Iran’s post-Mongol dynasty, would then establish Shi’ite Islam as the national religion, forming a major unified consciousness across the many ethnic groups that still populated the Iranian plateau. By the colonial period, Iran’s economy had been devastated by regional warfare, and the Shah (king) had been forced to appeal to Great Britain for economic relief, and Russia for diplomatic peace, thus triggering a strategic conflict between the two - though both eventually agreed on respective spheres of influence in 1907, as Germany was then viewed as a far greater threat.

During the final Shah’s reign in the 1960s, Iran had moved closer to the West, modernising the country and its economy by selling its vast reserves of oil to foreign powers in an event known as the White Revolution. The benefits of the program, however, were not felt across most of Iranian society, and when oil prices collapsed in the early 1970s, economic stagnation and downturn quickly followed. Sociopolitical oppression, combined with poor economic performance, led to many Iranians turning to radical religious groups, particularly those led by Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, to overthrow the Shah. Khomeini’s revolution in the late 1970s would then create the Islamic Republic of Iran, which is still in place today.

Economy

Despite issues surrounding a dependence on natural resources causing the downfall of the government in recent Iranian history (see above), economic activity on oil and natural gas remains moderately high. The national economy is only just beginning to recover from a decade-long stagnation, brought on by unstable oil prices, foreign sanctions, and the COVID-19 pandemic. Furthermore, rapid population growth - particularly in rural and agrarian areas - has hampered the country’s ability to deliver on its objectives of economic independence and a better quality of life for its nearly 85 million citizens.

But the Iranian economy is more diversified and resilient than most people may realise. Hydrocarbon production, services, and manufacturing industries are present and robust in Iran, albeit mostly state-owned and run. Access to electricity seems guaranteed across the country, while access to clean water is also slowly growing nationwide. But poverty in Iran is growing, and Faramarz Tofighi (head of the Islamic Labour Council wages committee) stating that," “More than 60 per cent of Iranian society lives in relative poverty…and half of those struggle with extreme poverty”. This is believed to be due to the re-imposition of sanctions on Iran since the Trump administration cancelled the Iranian nuclear deal. With poor economic performance being a critical factor of the 1979 revolution, it is unclear what the effects of this condition may yet be.

The Iranian Nuclear Deal

Credit: Al Jazeera

Known more formally as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the Iranian nuclear deal was an agreement to, quite simply, place restrictions on Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief. It seeks to block the four methods Iran could use to build nuclear weaponry, by reducing uranium and plutonium stockpiles, shutting down centrifuges, and accepting the presence of monitoring teams from the International Atomic Energy Association (IAEA). The deal was drafted by the Obama administration, and signed by the United States, United Kingdom, France, China, Germany, Russia, and Iran in Vienna, Austria, in 2013.

But in early May, 2018, the Trump administration pulled out of the nuclear deal, calling it “defective at its core”, reinstating original sanctions and imposing new ones on Iran. This sparked great concerns amongst European leaders, who have long believed that it suppressed Iranian nuclear capabilities, while improving diplomatic and economic relations. Since the abandonment by the United States, Iran has also taken steps away from following the conditions of the deal.

Can the nuclear deal, therefore, be revived by the Biden administration?

At the time of writing, the answer to this question is not yet clear. President Biden has not yet concluded his diplomatic tour of the Middle East, and discussions surrounding the deal are currently experiencing mixed results. However, Biden has voiced support for re-entering the deal, and exercised more restraint than his Israeli counterpart, Yair Lapid. But his proposal has not succeeded in Congress, where many American politicians have expressed disappointment that the proposal does not properly address Iranian support for groups identified by the United States as terrorists. Therefore, the future of the Iranian nuclear deal - or lack thereof - very much remains to be seen, in as soon as the coming weeks.

Trivia

-Iran has the highest volcano in Asia, with Mount Damavand standing over 5,600 meters tall.

-Iran has its own calendar, which is also used in Afghanistan. Under this system, the current year is 1443.

-Ancient Persians used yakhchal, or wind catchers, to reduce heat levels in cities. Though this technology is believed to have possibly originated in Egypt, the Persian city of Yazd has the most, and best-preserved ones, on display.

-The Pew Research Center found that most Iranians believe that religious authority should be present in government, but disagree on how much of a role these authorities should play.

Somaliland: One of Africa’s Strongest Non-States

Credit: The Guardian

It’s extremely likely you’ve heard of Somalia - though probably not for the best of reasons. It is one of the least developed countries in the world, with the average person earning a mere USD $445 per year. Most people know that it is also a hotbed for modern piracy, with 134 vessels taken hostage over the past 13 years (though, interestingly, the number of pirate attacks over the past ten years has significantly declined). Very few places on Earth can be considered “failed states”, but Somalia may very well be one of them.

So then, what is Somaliland, and how is it different?

The question is best answered by first taking a look at the colonial period in the Horn of Africa in the late 19th century. Modern-day Somalia was originally two separate colonies: Somalia, which was colonised by Italy, and Somaliland, colonised by Great Britain. The governance of the two was strikingly different: Great Britain (as it did with most or all of its colonies) took a much less hands-on approach, providing less infrastructure, but allowing more public freedoms and responsibility in the hands of local leaders. Following on from independence in 1960, Somaliland was a sovereign state for a mere five days before uniting with - and becoming a part of - Somalia itself.

Credit: Hiiraan Online

But the struggle for those seeking independence for Somaliland isn’t like many other separatist movements around the world. Advocates believe that it deserves to be its own sovereign territory not only because of cultural and ethnic distinctions, but also because it fulfills many of the requirements to be its own country. Somaliland has its own currency, valid elections, military, and passports. It is also more stable than Somalia, with fewer terror attacks taking place since 2008.

So what is Somaliland’s major roadblock, or roadblocks, to achieving international recognition?

The first - and perhaps most significant - is global apathy. Somaliland simply does not have the human, natural, or strategic resources to make international actors take decisive measures to recognise the state. Additionally, however, are the efforts made (particularly by the United States and Great Britain) towards building a comprehensive, functioning government in Somalia’s capital of Mogadishu. By recognising Somaliland’s independence, there are fears that such a political move would de-stabilise previous efforts made towards Somalia’s already fragile government at large. Lastly, and on a larger scale, the African Union echoes similar fears that Somaliland’s independence would lead to a resurgence of other separatist movements throughout the continent - some of which may be more violent and less successful.

A lack of recognition goes far beyond simply political satisfaction, however. Somaliland’s former Foreign Minister, Saad Ali Shire, says that a lack of bilateral networks are impeding aid intended for a food crisis, and the country is cut off from loan assistance via the World Bank. It’s highly unlikely that international recognition for Somaliland would solve its problems surrounding hunger - especially as a result of the climate crisis - but an ability to work with other recognised governments would be a strong start, and robust form of help.

TAI Score: Degree 2. While Somaliland itself is, in some ways, the opposite of a salient risk, political division and desperation in the already strained Horn of Africa and Red Sea region is beneficial to few, if any, actors. Despite its comparable stability and security, business and government actors must accept that business and political moves - up to and including diplomatic recognition - with Somaliland may result in a negative outsized impact.

Kazakhstan

Fast Facts

Location: Central Asia

Capital: Nur-Sultan (previously named Astana)

Population: 19.25 million (2022)

Government Type: Unitary Republic

Language(s): Kazakh, Russian

Climate: Continental (long hot summers, long cold winters)

GDP: USD $190.81 billion

Human Development Index Ranking: 0.825 (High-Moderate, 2019)

Overview

Kazakhstan is arguably the most major player located entirely within Central Asia (Russia heavily influences the region, but is not a “Central Asian nation” per se). It is the largest country by landmass in the region (and 9th largest in the world), holds the highest GDP, and is extremely rich in natural resources. It is this last point that plays an especially significant role in modern Kazakhstan, as it influences both domestic and foreign policy. Exploitation of these resources has caused political and economic issues, and an uneasy co-existence between local traditions and modern life. But life for the average person in Kazakhstan is slowly improving. The HDI ranking from 2000 to 2019 objectively rose, with the nationwide average ranking rising from 0.69 to 0.83 (with 1 being the highest) during this 20-year period, and the average life expectancy has steadily risen since the fall of the USSR. It certainly seems that life in Kazakhstan is slowly improving for the average person - but a number of roadblocks still remain.

History

Credit: Joel Heard

Modern day Kazakhstan has been inhabited since the Stone Age, as the Central Asian region is perfect for the practice of nomadic pastoralism. For centuries, the local populations (many of whom, such as the Scythians, cannot be directly linked to modern Kazakhs) lived as nomadic cultures heavily reliant on their animals. True political consolidation, however, did not occur until the early 13th century, with the invasion of the Mongol Empire establishing administrative districts that remained in place after the Empire’s collapse. By the 15th and 16th centuries, a unique Kazakh identity had formed around culture, language, and currency, as well as the establishment of a Kazakh nation under Kasym Khan. This empire would spend the next several centuries fighting off the Oirats, a Western Mongol confederation led by the exceptionally aggressive Dzungars (a threat eventually eliminated by the Manchurian Chinese). In the 1800s, Russian imperial influence had all but dominated Central Asia in a period known as the “Great Game”, in which the British and Russian empires competed for strategic dominance in the region. After the Bolshevik Revolution and establishment of the USSR, Kazakhstan’s new political system was established as an autonomous region in 1920, and Soviet republic in 1936. Soviet repression of Kazakh culture, intellectuals, and elites -as well as the collectivisation of agriculture - led to famine and mass emigration. Nuclear weaponry was also tested on Kazakh soil, causing major ecological and public health damage. Following the collapse of the USSR, Kazakhstan declared its own independence in 1990, fully achieving it in 1991. Nursultan Nazarbayev, the first post-Soviet president, initially followed a moderate line of democratisation - but became increasingly authoritarian over the following years. It was not until 2019 that he resigned, after three decades in power.

Economy

Kazakhstan’s economy is, as previously mentioned, heavily focused on natural resources. Oil, and oil related products, account for a staggering 73% of the national GDP - an extremely high proportion that leaves the national economy highly vulnerable to market shocks. However, much of that financial growth has been responsibly re-invested, with transportation and logistics infrastructure being generated to link Kazakhstan to Russia, western China, Europe, and the rest of Central Asia (a combined population of nearly 1 billion people). But the positive effects of these infrastructure projects have yet to be fully realised. The drop in oil prices in the mid-2010’s led to a severe decline in national GDP, with growth falling by approximately USD $100 billion in just three years. Furthermore, economic growth is hindered by widespread systemic corruption, with the Council of Europe reporting that corruption rates in Kazakhstan are “a serious concern, and more transparency [is] needed.”. When wealth is stored offshore - rather than in national banks, where it generates interest - it greatly impacts a national economy’s capacity for growth. But the news is not entirely negative - Kazakhstan has weathered the economic turmoil of the COVID-19 pandemic, with a GDP growth rate jumping back up to 4% in 2021, and a predicted 3.2% in 2022. With financially sustainable and responsible investments, a divestment away from natural resources, and an earnest campaign to tackle corruption, Kazakhstan has the potential for enormous economic capacity.

January 2022: What Happened, and Why

A protestor is detained during civil unrest in January, 2022. Credit: Vladimir Tretyakov/AP via Al Jazeera

On January 2nd, 2022, protests erupted in the oil hub town of Zhanaozen, after the government lifted a price cap on petroleum, causing the nationwide price of gas to almost double - after thousands of people converted their cars to petroleum usage as it was cheaper than other fuels prior to the price cap lifting. But these protests came to be about far more than fuel - widespread anger at the “monopoly” that Nursultan Nazarbayev and his allies had built in the post Soviet era, including over political choice and civil freedoms, also played a central part. Even after his resignation from a thirty year rule as president, Nazarbayev retained power as chairman of the national Security Council (until his successor, President Tokayev, forced his resignation days later).

Unfortunately, the situation did not remain peaceful - even after Nazarbayev’s dismissal. Authorities were accused of responding to the protests with excessive force, with 225 dead and over 10,000 detained. After several days of violent clashes, Tokayev appealed to the CSTO - the Collective Security Treaty Organisation, a military organisation and successor to the Warsaw Pact established after the end of the Cold War - for support. Merely four days after protests began, 2000 troops from Russia, Belarus, Tajikistan, Armenia, and Kyrgyzstan arrived in Kazakhstan to stabilise the situation. As soon as January 10th, it was assumed that the situation had been stabilised in Kazakhstan, though, as the Centre for Eastern Studies writes, “the embers may still smoulder for some time”.

Trivia

-Nearly every element on the periodic table can naturally be found in Kazakhstan, with over 99 discovered there.

-Kazakhstan is considered to be the birthplace of apples, with the Malus sieversii variant being identified as the progenitor of all mass-produced apples today.
-Archaeologists believe that the first horses to be tamed in human history were done so in modern day Kazakhstan.

-The largest and oldest space launch facility - the Baikonur Cosmodrome - is located in Kazakhstan, and is today both a museum and an operational facility under the operations of the Russian government.

Where The Stone Age Still Exists

Credit: Atlas & Boots Travel Blog

The Andaman and Nicobar Islands are India’s most southeastern administrative area. There are less than 900 islands in this area, which lie closer to Indonesia and Myanmar than to mainland India, with approximately 420,000 inhabitants in 2021. The climate is tropical and humid, but moderated by sea breezes, and (perhaps as a result) the tourism industry in the islands is growing. However, the capital city of Port Blair (where an organised government is involved in malaria prevention and tsunami relief) is not where this article takes it focus. Rather, just 25 kilometers from Port Blair lies a populated, off-limits island where evidence of even agriculture has yet to be found.

We know extremely little about North Sentinel Island and the people who live there. In fact, we don’t even know how many people live there at all. A 2011 census, combined with anthropological efforts, posit that the likely number sits between 80 and 150, though less conservative estimates place it between 15 and 500. What we do know for certain is that the North Sentinelese are extremely hostile to foreign attempts at contact - attacking and killing those who come to the island even accidentally, including two fishermen that drifted ashore while illegally harvesting crabs in 2006.

What exactly explains the violence that the Sentinelese show to any outsiders?

Credit: NASA Earth Observatory

The first non-Sentinelese to visit the island were British explorers seeking to expand the Empire’s territory and wealth. As with many post-Columbian exchanges, however, the explorers also brought diseases that the native population were biologically unequipped to deal with. Perhaps more importantly, in the late 1880s, a British naval officer by the name of Maurice Vidal Portman kidnapped six people - two elderly and four children - from the island to be studied in Port Blair. While the condition of the elderly rapidly declined until death, the four children survived (despite also falling ill) before being returned to North Sentinel. It is unknown whether the children's’ illness was spread on to other islanders. Nearly one hundred years later, in 1974, most of the tribes in the Andaman and Nicobar had been contacted and (at least partially) assimilated to modernity. But a group of anthropologists attempting to do the same with the Sentinelese (by bringing gifts of dolls, coconuts, and a live pig) was attacked, before having the gifts speared and buried in the sand.

The definitive nature and reasons behind the islanders’ hostility, however, is unknown at this time. National Geographic, however, identifies the first woman to contact the Sentinelese (Madhumala Chattopadhyay), detailing how coconuts were floated to the island from boats at a safe distance in January 1991. Two trips of this kind were made - but by 1996, these types of excursions were forbidden by officials, citing fears over the health of the islanders. They have not been re-allowed since.

TAI Score: Degree 1. Although the North Sentinelese do not venture beyond their island, constant monitoring and patrols are carried out by the Indian navy for safety reasons. Past individuals have attempted access to the island, resulting in their deaths, and concerns over the spread of disease to the natives remain. The impact of the North Sentinelese beyond the island, however, is effectively zero.

The Land That Nobody Wants

Generally speaking, countries rarely shy away from acquiring new territory. Russia has recently (within the past two decades) invaded Georgia and Ukraine, Turkey has invaded northern Syria, and border clashes over areas such as Aksai Chin exist between India and China. It’s no secret that having more land leads to any number of advantages for the country that owns it.

Bir Tawil’s location in North Africa. Credit: SlowJournalism.com

So, why on Earth is there a patch of desert in North Africa that no country wants to claim?

Bir Tawil is about the size of Greater London, and sits directly on the border between Egypt and Sudan. It doesn’t have a permanent population, though there are teams of Sudanese gold miners who frequent the area to sell what they find back in Khartoum. And although there isn’t anything wrong with the area (other than temperatures topping 45 degrees Celsius for nine months), and the fact that it is full of gold, neither Egypt nor Sudan want to claim it. Perhaps even more (at face value, seemingly) bizarrely, they both want to award it to one another - though not out of kindness.

The story of this geopolitical question mark begins in 1899. The British empire had, at this time, maintained control of both Egypt and Sudan, thus also maintaining the power to draw borders between the two. It was done so at the 22nd Parallel (a measurement of geographic longitude), before being updated in 1902 to better reflect the land’s usage by locals at the time - thus placing Bir Tawil within Egyptian borders. This, simultaneously, gave ownership of another area - the more extensive and fertile Hala’ib Triangle - to Sudan. According to Egypt, however, the 1902 agreement was temporary and deferential to the 1899 agreement, thus giving Bir Tawil to Sudan and the Hala’ib Triangle to Egypt. Therefore, ownership of Bir Tawil (and perhaps more importantly, the Hala’ib Triangle) is based on whichever agreement is seen as valid.

Although neither countries claim ownership of Bir Tawil, plenty of individuals have. A Russian radio broadcaster, an American farmer, and an Indian IT coder have all traveled there to each proclaim themselves king. A British barrister has also done so, but has seen more success in establishing authority there by attempting to regulate revenue generated by the local gold market. One thing, however, seems certain: formal ownership by either Egypt or Sudan does not seem to be on the horizon.

TAI Score: Degree 1. It is highly unlikely that Bir Tawil will, in itself, be a source of conflict. Although clashes over border disputes are by no means unheard of, both Egypt and Sudan have far more serious, and unrelated, issues that require being addressed first.

Turkmenistan

Fast Facts

Location: Central Asia

Capital: Ashgabat

Population: 6.03 million (2020)

Government Type: Parliamentary Republic*

Language: Turkmen

Climate: Arid, cold desert

GDP: USD $45.23 Billion (2020)

Human Development Index Rating: 0.715 (Moderate, 2019)

*NOTE: Turkmenistan is considered to be one of the most consolidated authoritarian regimes in the world, with Freedom House assigning it public freedom rankings similar to those of Eritrea and North Korea.

Overview

Turkmenistan is the dictatorship which, likely because it does not particularly generate headlines, the average person does not hear about. It is probably (by Western standards) also one of the strangest societies on Earth in a number of ways - to be discussed further on. For centuries, Turkmen people lived in a number of pastoral, nomadic clans, the three largest of which included the Tekke, Ersari, and Yomut. The ethnic makeup of Turkmenistan today consists largely of Turkmen, but also Russians, Uzbeks, Kazakhs, and Tatars. As with many other Central Asian states (and evident by the flag), it is also a majority Muslim country. Because the Turkmen language belongs to the Turkic language group, it (unlike Uzbek or Kazakh spoken in neighboring countries) is more similar to the Turkish language than any other. A majority of people live in the capital city of Ashgabat, as well as in other cities such as Dasoguz, Balkanabat, and Bayramaly.

History

A statue of Tamerlane, one of the warrior kings of Central Asia. Credit: Phil Bae

Following the neolithic cultural unification of modern-day southern Turkmenistan, the country fell under the control of the Parthian empire in the 4th century CE, before the Turkmen people entered the area as one of the Turkic tribes migrating westward from northern Asian steppes along the Silk Road. As with so many other modern-day countries, by the 13th century the Turkmen had become a part of the Mongol Empire, until becoming independent again in 1405 following the death of Timur. From there, Central Asia was fought over by Persian and Afghan, and later Russian and British, powers during the 17th and 18th centuries. By the mid 19th-century, the Russian Empire had completely conquered much of Central Asia, with Turkmenistan joining in the 1870s. Following the October Revolution that established the USSR, Turkmen people were encouraged to secularise, adopt European-style clothing, and (by 1948) give up nomadic lifestyles. Five decades on, Turkmenistan was one of the last countries to declare independence from a collapsing USSR as it needed the economic and political support it provided. Over the course of the 1990s, Saparmurat Niyazov was appointed Chairman, and later President for life, of Turkmenistan. Niyazov’s cult of personality has effectively crushed democracy in Turkmenistan to date, with his successor (Kurbanguly Berdymukhamedov) taking power in 2007 to this day - with no opposition candidates allowed in his election campaign. Today, however, Niyazov is still known as “Turkmenbashi”, a title which approximately translates to “Father of the Turkmen People”.

Economy

Due to Turkmenistan’s largely arid desert climate, the national economy is based on agricultural production around irrigated oases and the production of fossil fuels. The country’s top exports include crude and refined petroleum, as well as fertilisers, primarily to Uzbekistan, China, Russia, Turkey, and Italy. Since 2000, the Turkmen GDP has steadily risen, with the World Bank indicating that it has grown by USD $43 billion in the past two decades. However, in addition to a reliance on natural resources leaving the economy vulnerable to market shocks, FDI opportunities and business regulation in Turkmenistan remain severely limited. Doing so would allow the economy to grow by privatising state-owned enterprises and putting wealth towards human capitol, particularly outside of Ashgabat. Unfortunately, however, Turkmenistan is believed to be one of the most corrupt countries in the world - a practice which heavily restricts the possibility for finance-generating enterprises to be separated from the state. With civil society (the relationship between the state government and its citizens) being tightly controlled and censored, it is currently unlikely that such changes will come in the near future.

The Personality Cult

A statue of Niyazov in Ashgabat, which rotates to always face the sun. Credit: Martijn Munneke

As previously mentioned throughout this profile, Turkmenistan is one of the most autocratic countries in the world. Freedom House, a Washington DC-based think tank studying social freedom around the world, assigns a freedom score of 2/100, with a political rights score of 0/100, to Turkmenistan (for comparison, the United Kingdom is granted a score of 93/100) - a ranking which places it at the same approximate level as North Korea. Media and civil society are heavily controlled, and dissidents are often imprisoned and tortured - with reports of threats being made even to the relatives of dissidents. The national laws enforced by Berdymukhamedov are as strange as they are strict. Rumors swirl that days and months have been renamed to honour Niyazov and his family, car radios, cigarettes (outside of designated spaces), beards, and opera have been banned, and Ashgabat has completely banned dogs. Hospitals outside of Ashgabat have even been ordered to close down - it is unclear exactly why.

Perhaps the most central part of Niyazov’s and Berdymukhamedov’s regime is the Ruhnama - a book written by Niyazov that forms the cornerstone of post-Soviet Turkmen society. This book contains everything from moral teachings, history, and folklore to constitutional law, religion, and even praises for national symbols such as melons and carpets. Its teachings are mandatory in schools, mosques, and even driving tests. An enormous statue of the book - as well as many other symbols of Turkmen identity - exist in Ashgabat. This statue even opens its pages and plays an audio recording every day at 8PM.

Trivia

-The Darzava Gas Crater, or Gates of Hell, is a 70-meter wide hole that has been on fire for over 50 years due to a Soviet drilling machine accidentally puncturing a natural gas pipeline, then being set alight in order to burn the poisonous fumes out in a project believed to take only a few weeks.

-Turkmenistan is one of the least visited countries in the world, with an estimated tourist count of less than 10,000 people per year. This is due to an extremely difficult visa acquisition situation.

-Turkmenistan holds a variety of rather strange Guinness world records, including (but not limited to) the world’s largest indoor Ferris wheel, the fastest 10m on hind legs by a horse, and the world’s largest cycling awareness lesson.

The Ins and Outs of the Illegal Wildlife Trade

Credit: Ken Goulding

Poaching (alongside the trafficking of narcotics, weapons, and people) is one of the four most lucrative illegal industries in the world. INTERPOL states that the illicit wildlife trade (IWT) may be worth up to USD $20 billion per year - though proper figures are extremely difficult to acquire. Poaching is closely linked to ecological breakdown and social woes - but how, and how do we address it?

As with any issue, the best place to start is with definitions that describe to us exactly what we’re studying. Poaching is the illegal hunting of game, fish, or plants from a private property, or in areas where such practices are explicitly forbidden. Its practice actually goes as far back as medieval Europe, when subsistence poachers (who would steal animals to supplement poor diet) would be imprisoned by feudal lords that owned the land they hunted on, due to their use of animals for their own food and even sport. Poaching is ultimately fueled by a demand for animal resources. Demand is global, but seems particularly prevalent across Asia, where exotic animals are used in the creation of traditional medicines, served as delicacies, or kept as pets. Consequently, the five animals most at risk of poaching are African elephants, rhinoceroses, Bengal tigers, mountain gorillas, and sea turtles. The commonality held across these five species is that of their resources - ivory, bushmeat, or even body parts to be used in medicine or as trophies.

Credit: Kartik Iyer

The effects of poaching are also widespread and devastating - far beyond the animals that are the direct victims. The reduction of certain animal species in their natural habitat causes imbalances in the food chain, as predators (or prey) are no longer present to control the population of other species. A number of animal-based diseases (including COVID-19) can be transferred to humans through the consumption of bushmeat, especially if purchased in an unregulated black market for animal products. In Africa, nearly 600 park rangers have lost their lives to violent poachers between 2009 and 2016, with 170 being killed in the DR Congo’s Virunga National Park since 2002.

So with the emergence of direct threats to human health, ecological wellbeing, and social cohesion - how does a national or global society address poaching?

Organisations like WWF help out by financing security groups and park rangers in threatened areas, providing everything from housing to drinking water. They are also conducting advocacy towards local governments, and launching initiatives to shift consumer behaviour away from demand for illegal animal resources. More specifically, WWF’s Wildlife Crime Initiative describes four key pillars to tackling IWT: Stop Poaching, Stop Trafficking, Stop Buying, and Establishing International Policy. The results speak for themselves - China’s ivory ban, which began in 2017, has caused domestic demand to fall by half. One year later, the United Kingdom and Hong Kong (a major location for ivory trafficking) passed similar bans. Similar bans already exist in the United States and Singapore. Another method of tackling poaching is to stop it at its very source, by addressing the economic desperation of poachers. Most of the countries home to the most frequently poached animals are extremely poor, with the average person in the DR Congo earning just over $1 per day in 2020, while a single elephant tusk can fetch over $1,500 on the black market. Although it is far easier said than done, proper economic development efforts where they are needed most - especially those centered around conservation - will reduce (or even eliminate) the need for poaching activities to take place.

TAI Score: Degree 3. The impact of the illegal wildlife trade strengthens transnational crimes, and weakens natural ecosystems. Poachers, who do not contribute to the national economy, place further strains on local societies. These points are especially relevant to threat analysts, particularly those involved in forensics and crime prevention.

Uganda

Fast Facts

Location: East Africa

Capital: Kampala

Population: 45.75 million (2020)

Government Type: Parliamentary Democracy

Language: Swahili, English, Luganda, various native languages

Climate: Tropical rainforest

Gross Domestic Product: USD $37.37 billion (2020)

Human Development Index Rating: 0.544 (Low-Moderate, 2019)

Overview

Uganda is a country of vast diversity, in both an ecological and demographic sense. There are four main ethnic groups (Bantu, Nilote, Nilo Hamites, and Hamites), with a further 56 distinct ethnic tribes in this country the size of Great Britain. These groups are largely held together by common language and religion - Swahili and Christianity, respectively. In the realm of biodiversity, Uganda ranks as one of the top ten countries for recorded animal species, with nearly 19,000 recorded, of which over 1,200 include butterfly species alone. But for decades, Uganda has (like its neighbours) struggled with extreme poverty, political instability, and warfare that have stopped the country from transforming into an East African success story as neighbouring Rwanda has.

History

A woman stands outdoors in rural Uganda Credit: SocialIncome

Uganda had, since time immemorial, existed as a series of kingdoms by the time of the first European’s arrival. Prior to this era, it had established commercial relationships with the rich merchant Sultanate of Zanzibar, though the Sultan’s influence was rarely able to be exercised. The first Christian missionaries arrived in 1877, but were met with hostility by the locals, with the first bishop being murdered in 1885. By this point, Britain (whom had colonised much of East Africa) agreed to a hands-off approach to governance of the region - until a newly united Germany established a colony in Tanganyika (modern-day Tanzania). The economy remained stunted for much of the early 20th century, with the economy consisting mainly of cotton and coffee production, as well as some commerce run by the Indian community that emigrated there during the existence of the Raj. By the late 1950s, several political parties emerge as young Ugandans become unsatisfied with the idea of loosely-tied feudal kingdoms, and by the early 1960s, independence from Britain is secured. The establishment of a Parliament moves the kabaka (or king) to a ceremonial role - but is soon overthrown by Prime Minister Obote and his army commander, Idi Amin. Amin would later overthrow Obote in a coup, ruling as a terrifying dictator and causing extreme short- and long-term damage onto Uganda. A combined effort between the Tanzanian army and resistance groups within Uganda led to the fall of Amin and his eight year long, brutal reign. In the 1980s, Obote returned to office in a highly controversial election, with his opposition forming a guerrilla group against him. The opposition party, the NRA, came to power in 1986, further guaranteeing security and the protection of human rights. Since then, Uganda has received mixed criticism and praise for interventions throughout Africa, including the DRC, Somalia, and South Sudan.

Economy

As Uganda’s political climate stabilised in the 1990s and 2000s, economic growth increased significantly. It was one of the only countries to receive debt relief in exchange for economic reform in 1997, and has continued to do so ever since. Agriculture, particularly in the country’s southern regions, accounts for a large amount (nearly 25%) of overall GDP. Taking a closer look at GDP, the growth rate has been fairly unsteady, but consistent nonetheless, with growth particularly taking off in the early 2000s.

But challenges facing development remain. Uganda’s HDI ranking of 0.544 is fairly low (a ranking of 159th out of 189 in 2020), with main challenges including poor education quality stunting current and future generations, climate change negatively affecting agriculture and directly threatening lives, and corruption impeding the role of state institutions.

But trends regarding poverty reduction in Uganda are strong and consistent. From 1993 - 2013, the country managed to reduce its poverty rate from 59% to less than 20%. The current National Development Plan (NDP) places a special focus on social institutions, wealth creation, and infrastructure development. Furthermore, the Poverty Alleviation Program (PAP), set up by the President himself, focuses on several key aspects: income generation, food security, home improvement, and more. These will be particularly emphasised in the northern and eastern provinces, where poverty is most acute.

Uganda and COVID-19: A Case Study

Credit: Martin Sanchez

COVID-19 has dominated headlines since approximately February 2020. The virus has flared up in Europe, the United States, China, Iran, and Latin America over the course of the past 30 months. But Sub-Saharan Africa - perhaps the region least equipped to deal with a pandemic - seems to have mostly avoided the worst of the virus’s effects. Taking a closer look at Uganda, there have been less than 200,000 reported cases and under 4,000 deaths. Approximately 25% of the population is vaccinated as well - lowering the possibility that this figure will climb much higher. The world’s poorest region seems to have avoided the worst - but how? The initial explanation may be to point out that Uganda has had less than 200,000 reported cases, and that tens of thousands may have been missed due to a lack of testing. This is a perfectly valid observation, but an incomplete one at best.

A scientific team from South Africa and Madagascar conducted a study that showed that lower connectivity between nations and communities played a large part in preventing widespread infection throughout Sub-Saharan Africa. Intra- and inter-regional travel simply was, and is, not taking place at a level effective enough to spread COVID-19 throughout local societies. The study also helped rule out climate as a factor, as it appears to have had minimal effect on epidemic peaks.

Another key factor is that idea that Sub-Saharan Africa is not, in fact, the region least equipped to deal with pandemics. Past public health emergencies in the region, including Ebola, tuberculosis, malaria, and HIV/AIDS have contributed to an ongoing supply of knowledge, medical staff, communications, community engagement procedures, and infrastructure designed to deal with such outbreaks. In fact, as early as January 2020 (a full month before COVID-19 was detected in Africa), several African governments - including Uganda - had already established dialogue with their local communities to warn them of the virus.

With Uganda in particular, the response to the virus was highly decentralised, and placed in the hands of district leaders. Task forces were set up to monitor their own areas, rather than a bureaucratic office in Kampala doing it for them from hundreds of miles away. These teams would conduct surveillance in their own communities, and become able to act as soon as virus cases were detected, as well as provide a central, familiar contact for locals to get information from in their own language.

Trivia

-Uganda is one of the youngest countries in Africa, with nearly half of the population aged 14 and under, and only 2% over the age of 65.
-Uganda is the second largest landlocked country in the world by population size. The 1st place holder of this title goes to Ethiopia.
-Uganda hosts more refugees than any other country in Africa. Many of them come from South Sudan or the Democratic Republic of Congo.
-Uganda is one of the only countries that the equator runs through.

The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022: What It Is, and What It Is Not

A building sustains heavy damage in Kyiv, Ukraine. Credit: Julia Rekamie

N.B.: For faster reading, a summary can be found at the bottom of the article.

On the February 24, 2022, the world was struck by an awful event: after weeks of military buildup on the border, Russia had in fact, contradicting all past statements made by the Kremlin, launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The invasion was initiated less than a day after the Russian government recognised the independence of the Donbas and Luhansk regions of eastern Ukraine, and at the time of writing this article, the conflict continues to be waged with little to no end in sight.

So, how did we get here? Why has Russia invaded Ukraine, what is the significance of the Donbas and Luhansk regions, and why does it all matter?

Some historians may tell you that the answer, like the answer to so many other contemporary issues, dates back to the Cold War. It could realistically be argued, however, that the real response actually goes back much further than that. In the past five centuries, Russia has been invaded from the west at least five times - by Poland, Sweden, France, and twice Germany. The reason for this is simple: Russia has no natural barriers - mountains, rivers, or deserts - on its western border. An invading force can easily move eastward across the European plain for as long as its supply lines can sustain it. In fact, As a result, it has always sought to surround itself with states friendly to Moscow to serve as a de facto buffer zone - through diplomacy or otherwise. This has been the case during the Imperial era, the Soviet era, and the post-Soviet era.

The goal of being surrounded by friendly states has been partially achieved by Russia. The Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) operates as a sort of post-Soviet Warsaw Pact (the alliance of communist nations during the Cold War), including Russia, Armenia, Belarus, and three Central Asian states (Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, and Kyrgyzstan) to guarantee mutual defence and regional security. A key example of the CSTO’s objective includes the deployment of troops to suppress riots in Kazakhstan at the beginning of 2022. With the exception of Belarus, however, these states all exist along or near Russia’s southwestern border in Central Asia, just north of Turkey and Iran.

With Belarus being the only consolidated pro-Moscow state in eastern Europe, however, Russia’s western border is relatively exposed. NATO - the mutual security alliance created during the Cold War - has now accepted members formerly part of the USSR, placing its influence closer to Russia itself. Established in 1949, NATO originally included the USA, Canada, and western European powers. As of 2022, it now includes Latvia, Czechia, Estonia, Bulgaria, North Macedonia, Albania, Hungary, Croatia, Lithuania, Poland, Montenegro, Slovakia, Slovenia, and Romania - all former Soviet (or Yugoslav) states. Bosnia and Georgia have also expressed interest. From a Russian point of view, NATO has expanded into its former territory and seized influence on countries that would have otherwise comprised the aforementioned buffer zone.

But NATO doesn’t “expand” in that way. Countries are not forced or coerced into the alliance - leaders are invited for talks at the organisation’s headquarters in Brussels, Belgium. Potential members are then required to write a letter of intent to join, at which point they must meet specified criteria in order to be accepted. The entire process is voluntary, and can be cancelled by the potential member at any time. NATO is not a unilateral organisation led by a single power that imposes influence on, or outright invades, a potential member state. Any country can join or leave as desired.

So what does this all have to do with Ukraine?

Ukraine directly borders Russia. Russia has unsuccessfully attempted to sway Ukraine before. Pro-Russian presidential candidates such as Yanukovych have been supported and elected, only to be overthrown before the end of his first term. As a result, Ukraine has been increasingly pro-EU in the past three decades. A partnership and co-operation agreement was signed between the EU and Ukraine as early as 1994 - merely three years after the dissolution of the Soviet Union. This has, needless to say, made Russia wary. A state directly on its border - which Moscow wants to serve as a buffer zone - has requested to join an organisation that its government sees as anti-Russian. Putin is seeing his buffer zone fading away, perceiving Russia as vulnerable to NATO and the EU - with Belarus as its only real ally left in Europe.

What the war is

The conflict in Ukraine is an attempt to turn the country away from NATO and the EU. This is so that Russia can maintain what it feels it needs - encirclement by friendly states that it can use to defend itself from western aggression through a denial of full autonomy and self-determination for eastern European nations to seek their own political identities and alignments. This is not a new phenomenon. This has happened under centuries of imperial rule and decades of Soviet ideology. Putin is fulfilling what he and those around him see as the country’s destiny and duty - an objective which must be met by any means necessary.

What the war is not

The war is not the outcome of NATO expansion. The treaty organisation has not swept through Europe, occupying former Soviet states to intimidate Moscow. The process of joining NATO is fully consensual and diplomatic for any country that desires it. The aggression showed towards Ukraine by Moscow is perhaps a perfect showcasing of why so many former Soviet states near Russia desire to be in a mutual defence treaty.

It is probably not, as so many have speculated, a result of Putin’s failing health. Rumors of his wellbeing have circulated for decades. In 2012, it was speculated that he had injured his back - which the Kremlin stated was due to an “ordinary sporting injury” after a hang-gliding accident. In 2015, a Kazakh government source claimed that Putin’s trip to Astana was cancelled due to his poor health, with his spokesman denying the statement, saying that “he has meetings all the time”. During the COVID-19 pandemic, meeting with Putin required a week of isolation in advance - for people including Olympians and veterans from the Second World War. His status has been under question for many years, and while he is turning 70 this year, it is still unclear if - or to what extent - he is sick, let alone if it is affecting the existence of the Ukraine conflict.

It is probably not a conflict over resources. While Ukraine is extremely natural resource rich - particularly in coal, fossil fuels, iron, manganese, and titanium. Ukraine is also a major exporter of wheat and corn, with over 18 million tonnes of wheat exported in 2020. However, Russia itself is rich in natural resources - perhaps unsurprising for the largest country on Earth. Major natural resources include cobalt, copper, lead, platinum, zinc, and more. Russia is also the largest exporter of wheat in the world, with over USD $1 billion sold in wheat exports alone.

TAI Score: Degree 5. The Russo-Ukrainian War is placing significant strains on international relations. At present, it is likely the greatest source of diplomatic conflict between Russia and the West, with both realms committing significant amount of materials (and the former committing significant amount of manpower) to achieving its aims. This is causing a large-scale fraction in the international system.

Jamaica

Fast Facts

Jamaican national flag

Location: Caribbean Islands

Capital: Kingston

Population: 2.96 million (2020)

Government Type: Parliamentary Democracy

Language: English

Climate: Tropical Rainforest

Gross Domestic Product: USD $25.89 billion

Human Development Index: 0.734 (High, 2019)

Overview

This is a country which, despite its size and relatively small population, everyone has heard of. Everyone knows about Jamaican reggae music, which has been popularised throughout the world thanks to the fame of individuals such as Bob Marley. In 2021, the country hosted over 1.5 million overnight tourists - nearly one visitor for every two local residents. It’s no secret that Jamaica is a celebrated nation that people are keen to visit - but what are some of the less known aspects of the country that the tourism industry may not show - intentionally or otherwise?

History

Jamaica’s colonial flag under British rule

Jamaica’s history is as long as any other country’s. Prior to the arrival of Europeans, the island was populated by a group of indigenous peoples known as the Taino. Jamaica then came under the control of Spain, to be populated by slaves, before being conquered by Great Britain and renamed Jamaica. The colony served as a major exporter for sugar, like many of its neighbors in the Caribbean, and in an effort to drive out Spanish influence, the British hired pirates as mercenaries (known as privateers) to harass and steal from Spanish ships in the 17th and 18th centuries. By the mid 19th century however, the growth of other industries and abolition of slavery in the empire made the sugar industry less competitive, and allowed room for more social freedoms in Jamaica. By the early 1900s, nationalist movements led by Marcus Garvey had led to the sufficient (if forced) expansion of civil rights to the establishment of a full internal democracy, with independence being formally recognised by Great Britain in 1962 as part of the global decolonisation movement. Queen Elizabeth II retains a ceremonial Head of State title in Jamaica, as with many other Commonwealth states.

Economy

At a glance, the country’s economy is unstable. The GDP growth trends are in a state of constant flux. In the space of one year alone (1972-73), the economy’s growth rate fell by an astonishing 23.5% due to a slowdown in the global economy, causing a further knock-on effect of a decline in tourism to Jamaica. Major aluminum producers also left the country, leading the government to foster the growth of small business and private enterprises instead. Another crash occurred in the 1990s caused by financial issues and a severe drought, and another in 2020, likely due to the extreme impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the tourism industry and global economy writ large.

Tourism - and its Implications Beyond the Beach Resorts

Credit: Eduardo Velazco Guart

As mentioned within the Overview, Jamaica is an overwhelmingly popular tourism destination for over one million people per year. In times of socio-economic stability, tourism can be (and is) an excellent boost to an economy - whether it applies to a developing economy or not. Specifically within the Caribbean, the tourism industry accounts for as much as over 70% of the GDP of some countries. But although the Jamaican economy isn’t completely vulnerable to price fluctuations on a single or small number of natural resources (as many countries, especially developing ones, are), the country’s dependence on the tourism industry leads to severe economic issues in times of crisis, as holidays abroad are often one of the first things cancelled when budgets are tightened. Forbes also points out that the environmental impact of tourism on these islands - Jamaica included - can account for as much as 97% of total emissions from smaller regional nations such as Dominica, with many of these emissions coming from hotels and air travel specifically.

Trivia

Jamaica’s national flag is the only one in the world to not contain the colours red, white, or blue.

One third of all Jamaicans live within Kingston, the capital city

Sir Ian Fleming wrote all of his James Bond novels while living in Jamaica