Is A War Imminent in South America?
“Formula for success: Rise early, work hard, strike oil.'“
-J. Paul Getty
A woman stands near a mural advertising the referendum, including Essequibo within Venezuela’s borders. Source: 8News NOW
Latin America is a unique region of the world for a relatively positive reason: conflict in the region is rare. Although the continent’s many countries often struggle with protests, corruption, drugs trafficking, and inequality, inter-state warfare is less common than in other areas of the world. There are several reasons for this: human geography is relatively urbanised, with 35% of the continent’s population living in Brazil alone. In terms of physical geography, the continent is decorated with difficult terrain to navigate, including vast rainforests, wide rivers, mountains, and open deserts. In fact, Latin America is simultaneously home to both the world’s largest river and the driest desert. These factors make open, land-based, inter-state warfare difficult to wage and succeed in.
Unfortunately, however, a newly-reignited development may be brewing amongst the region’s northern neighbours, for potentially unsurprising reasons: oil.
On December 4th, 2023, Venezuela’s president Nicolas Maduro declared victory in a nationwide referendum to claim the western two-thirds of neighbouring Guyana’s territory, an area named Essequibo. Essequibo itself consists largely of the river from which its name originates, and the rainforest highlands that spread across much of central Guyana. Only approximately 125,000 people - or about 1/7th of Guyana’s population - lives in the disputed area, which accounts for more than half of Guyana’s overall territory. And yet, the oil wealth of the region discovered in 2015 lies off the coast, rather than on the land itself.
Furthermore, the discovery of oil off of Guyana’s coast is not exclusively responsible for the buildup of tensions, however. The region has been claimed by Venezuela since as early as 1899, though international tribunals have repeatedly ruled in favour of British-controlled Guyana (which later gained independence in 1966). The presence of gold mines in the region had also exacerbated tensions since the late 19th century.
In response to heightened tensions in an area where inter-state conflict is rare, multiple actors have quickly become involved. The American SOUTHCOM (the department of the military responsible for monitoring Latin American security) has conducted flyovers of Guyana in partnership with the local government. The British Royal Navy has also sent a patrol boat to assist with Guyana’s national security, and (perhaps most importantly) Brazil, the most powerful local actor, has reinforced its own northern border with Venezuela.
As of December 15th, President Maduro of Venezuela and President Irfaan Ali have jointly signed a declaration refusing to use force as a means to conflict resolution over Essequibo. War may not be fast approaching or unstoppable in Latin America, but with Maduro’s highly controversial decade in office including mass corruption, skyrocketing inflation, and flagrant censorship of opposition in consideration, the situation over Guyana’s national sovereignty will require ongoing monitoring by key players.
TAI Score: Degree 4. A Venezuelan armed conflict with Guyana would cause considerable amounts of concern for regional, and even international, actors, with a noticeable impact on international oil markets. It is likely that Brazil, Russia, and the United States would all become involved in conflict resolution, likely with competing interests. However, such conflicts remain within the possibility of resolution, and a new equilibrium of peace could be achieved - though not without considerable diplomatic efforts, and not without the risk of deception by Maduro’s government.
