Africa’s Next Major Conflict - a Forecast
“150 million people cannot reside in a geographic prison”
In August of 2020, Mali’s military staged a coup d’etat that overthrew the national government. In 2021, Sudan did the same, splitting apart a country already divided in two since 2011. Burkina Faso joined them in 2022, followed by Niger and Gabon the next year. Violence between the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Rwanda remains tense, Mozambique continues to struggle with insurgency, and Sierra Leone was thrown into a panic on November 27th when rebels attacked a prison and military infrastructure in Freetown.
African countries continue to face violence and instability, but a greater threat of inter-state war may be on the horizon.
Ethiopia’s population is enormous, and shows no sign of slowing down. At present, it stands at over 126 million people, with a median age of just 18 years old. This places it at the 11th most populous country in the world, though more importantly, it stands at the largest landlocked country in the world. The strain placed on Ethiopia by having such a large, and young, population, combined with the disadvantages with being landlocked, are causing tensions in the Horn of Africa.
The (approximated) route of the Addis-Djibouti Railway line.
At present, a staggering 95% of outgoing trade from Ethiopia travels along a single railway stretching from Addis Ababa to the Port of Djibouti. To Ethiopia, this is not ideal: reliance on a single rail network for 95% of trade leaves the country’s economy vulnerable to any issues that may arise along the railway, particularly in times of conflict, where a blockade is easily achieved. The railway’s prioritisation of freight over passenger rail further means that the railway is not financially viable, with revenue being USD $30 million below operating costs, though approximately 40% growth was reported in early December 2023. Needless to say, Addis Ababa is seeking alternatives.
Thus, Ethiopia is seeking its own direct access to international waters - possibly through an invasion of southern Eritrea if necessary. This access to the sea would not be a new phenomenon to Ethiopia, and was previously available prior to Eritrea’s declaration of independence in 1993, which claimed the coastline northeast of Ethiopia. Relations between Ethiopia and Eritrea have been rocky since then - ranging from open hostility to partnership against the TPLF’s violence in 2020.
Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. Source: BBC
In October of 2023, however, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed gave a speech highlighting the importance of “Ethiopia’s need to access the Red Sea to propel it to greatness”, a quote which has unsettled politicians in Eritrea and Somalia. Ahmed’s governance has historically been highly paradoxical: despite winning a Nobel Peace Prize in 2019 for his resolution of a border dispute (also with Eritrea), he has also already engaged in 3 separate wars in the 5 years of his presidency.
Thankfully, there aren’t currently any signs that an open annexation of southern Eritrea is imminent. PM Ahmed has addressed his previous comments, saying that Ethiopia has no intentions of invading a neighbouring nation. Analysts have also pointed out that Ethiopia does not currently have the military capacity to do so, and the international reaction may offset any financial gains made from renewed access to the Red Sea. Furthermore, Tigrayans - whom Ethiopia and Eritrea recently fought side-by-side against - may feel neither willingness to participate as the backbone of Ethiopia’s fighting force, nor loyalty to Ethiopia itself.
Whether conflict is once again on the horizon along the Ethiopian-Eritrean border is unclear - as is the answer to whether the question of economic development for 126 million people justifies the invasion of another country - but with over 30% of Ethiopia’s GDP existing as incoming FDI, businesses would do well to remain aware of local and regional risks.
TAI Score: Degree 3. Ethiopia’s diplomatic standing in Africa has experienced setbacks under Prime Minister Ahmed. Concerns over the Aswan Dam with Egypt are already salient, ongoing tension in Tigray is cause for alarm, and a refreshed conflict with Eritrea would certainly not assist foreign outlooks. However, the negotiation of trade route availability is far cheaper - and likely faster - than an outbreak of conflict. The Ethiopian government will likely seek out a peaceful resolution first, but observers should remain wary.
