The Fourth Flashpoint
Relative to other regions of the world, East Asia is a fairly peaceful place - even if that peace is fragile. Formal inter-state conflict has not erupted since the failed Chinese invasion of Vietnam in 1979, economic trade throughout the region is among the highest in the world, and issues such as poverty and religious extremism are largely non-applicable to most countries. That is not to say, however, that tension doesn’t exist - most scholars point to the still-formally unresolved situation on the Korean Peninsula, the political status of Taiwan, and maritime disputes, particularly over the South China Sea, as the largest flashpoints for potential conflict.
Source: Google Maps
There is, however, a fourth one - older, though less alarming, than any of the sources of tension listed above.
Chances are, you haven’t heard of the Kuril Islands - and you’d likely be forgiven if not. They' are a volcanic island chain stretching between the northern coast of Japan, and Russia’s far eastern Kamchatka Peninsula near Alaska, USA. The islands are poor, sparsely populated, and economically reliant on fishing and mineral extraction (specifically pyrite, sulphur, and polymetallic ores). The local population is merely 30,000 people.
And yet, these islands have remained as a major source of tension between Russia and Japan, two titans on the geopolitical stage, since the conclusion of the Second World War. The nature of the dispute is relatively straightforward - after the defeat of Japan at the hands of American forces in 1945, the Soviet Union swept through Manchuria (in northeastern China) and other Japanese-occupied territories, including the Kuril Islands. Although the Soviets withdrew from Manchuria in 1946, a formal Russo-Japanese peace treaty was, and has never been, signed, nor has a withdrawal from the Kuril Islands ever taken place.
It is in this regard that the complication emerges: the lack of a formal peace treaty means that Japan believes the islands remain occupied, while Russia believes that a lack of war means the islands’ status should not be changed.
In truth, such a lack of formal peace out of a war-time settlement is nothing new. The Korean War’s armistice established a ceasefire along the 38th Parallel, but a formal peace treaty there has never been signed. Similarly, areas such as Bir Tawil remain in limbo out of an obligation for countries to meet the requirements of conflicting treaties.
Source: The National Interest
Thankfully, the dispute over the Kuril Islands has rarely - if ever - become violent. In 2016, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe invited Russian President Vladimir Putin to Japan to discuss the conflict, though it ended in a stalemate. Tamerlan Abdikeev, the founder of a Tokyo-based consulting firm, has also stated that “There are several problems, such as the Russian military bases on the islands or the possible placement of American military bases if Japan gets any of the islands which will definitely not be accepted by Russia.” - a perhaps justifiable concern given the already-existent presence of US military bases in Okinawa.
Under the far more recent context of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, however, the situation has quietly shifted. An increased militarisation of the islands by Russia began in 2015, and co-operation talks with Japan, which has to date fully supported Ukraine in the conflict, have stalled as a result of sanctions over the war. This has also promoted the rebuilding of Japanese military forces, a trend previously attributed to the perceived threat posed by an increasingly assertive Chinese foreign policy.
For the islands’ few residents, life will remain difficult. Development in local towns is extremely low, with no significant roads or gas stations in place - leaving residents to purchase fuel stolen from their own factories to heat their homes, and engage in the poaching of fish to keep food on the table. As talks the relationship between Japan and Russia has all but collapsed, their lives show minimal signs of improvement for the foreseeable future - and East Asia’s fourth point of tension, as comparably minor as it is, remains in place.
TAI Score: Degree 3. Russian actions have been noticeably more aggressive over the past year, and the re-armament of Japan may serve to further inflame tensions over the Kuril Islands. While the advantage of ownership over the Kuril Islands is minimal with respect to material gain, strategic advantage is certainly present - and may someday be leveraged by either nation for domestic support.
