The Global Population Shift
A family in Niger, the country with the youngest average population in the world, poses for the camera in their home. Source: World Vision International
For decades, demographers, geographers, and other social scientists have been warning about the dangers of overpopulation. Resource scarcity, environmental degradation, and strains placed on public infrastructure are all effects of the planet’s status of having, quite simply, too many people. However, the late Hans Rosling, a legendary Swedish demographer, advised the world not to panic - identifying as early as 2010 that assuming the world’s most impoverished nations continued to develop, global populations would not surpass 11 billion before declining - all within the next century. In spite of his optimism however, Rosling may have been a little too correct. The most developed countries in the world - and even those with middling levels of development - are indeed facing a demographic crisis, though curiously, it is the opposite of that which so many geographers predicted less than 20 years ago.
To give an example, in 2010, Brookings published an article stating that “China still has the world’s largest population and its population is still growing. It is also due in part to a continued tendency in China and elsewhere to believe that overpopulation is the root cause of all problems.”. In direct contrast, in April of this year, the BBC identified that “the country is running out of time to build enough of a fund to care for the growing number of elderly.” - a certain sign of a rapidly shrinking population.
Declines in global fertility rates are caused by a wide variety of factors, the primary three of which are identified by the World Economic Forum: women’s education and workforce empowerment, lower child mortality, and rising costs of raising a family. In 2023, this crisis was especially severe in East Asia, with half of the ten least fertile entries on the list located in the region (Taiwan, Hong Kong, Macau, Singapore, and South Korea). By contrast, only two (Spain and Italy) are located in western Europe. By contrast, the list of countries with the highest fertility rates are dominated by countries in Saharan and sub-Saharan Africa - of the top 20 countries listed, only one (Afghanistan) is not located in Africa.
A graph shows the current predictions for the number of working-age individuals in South Korea until 2072. Source: Statista
Where overpopulation presents numerous challenges - as mentioned above - underpopulation introduces obstacles of a different nature. Businesses experience lower demand and fewer workers, governments struggle to tax working populations, and less money is spent on public infrastructure as a result. If a population is aging, this is especially serious as an increasing amount of money will be further required to spend on pensions and medical facilities - without a return on investment.
At the time of this article’s publication, no country appears to have a plan for tackling the issue of shrinking demographics. The European Union has turned to immigration as a solution, while Japan has introduced financial aid for young families. What may be most certain, however, is that a one-size-fits-all policy across the world’s multitude of cultures, economies, and environments is unlikely to emerge.
TAI Score: Degree 3. While low fertility rates and a declining population may not be security threats in and of themselves, they may cause shifts in politics and society that may lead to increased competition between actors. Finding ways to maintain pensions and public infrastructure with a declining population will lead to challenges that may require tough decisions to be made. Political and business leaders will need to remain creative and aware of challenges and risks caused by a shrinking number of people.
