The Grand Renaissance Dam
Egypt’s population density is extremely odd, but probably not surprising. 95% of the 105 million people who live in Egypt reside just a few miles away from the legendary Nile River - which makes sense considering more than 90% of the country is a desert. In every country on Earth, access to water is a foundational building block of society, a fact which holds true since the first human settlement was established approximately 10,000 years ago. Put simply: people cannot live without water.
It’s a fundamental fact that makes the Grand Renaissance Dam so utterly controversial.
Egypt's population is extremely reliant on fresh water from the Nile. Source: CIA World Factbook
The dam is not located in Egypt. It’s not even located near Egypt. In fact, it’s located almost 1,300km away in the Ethiopian town of Bameza, on the other side of Sudan. The dam is hydroelectric, predicted to be the largest dam of any kind in Africa, and will double Ethiopia’s production of electricity without emitting any CO2 into the atmosphere. Dams also boost agricultural output - they provide a stable, reliable source of fresh water that can feed both plants and livestock. This trend would be lifesaving in a place like east Africa where food security is often shaky - or worse.
On the subject of food security, and in direct contrast to the benefits of the dam to Ethiopia above: the exact same dam will likely cripple Egypt.
Given the aforementioned statistics about Egypt’s population density, it’s probably not a surprise that the dam is a source of great concern in Cairo. Cutting the water flow to Egypt and Sudan would dramatically impact both societies. A mere 2% reduction in Egyptian freshwater availability would cause a loss of 200,000 acres of irrigated land.
This has, naturally, affected east African politics. It’s a little tangled, but to put it as simply as possible: Egypt doesn’t like Ethiopia, Ethiopia likes Somaliland*, Somaliland doesn’t like Somalia, Somalia now doesn’t like Ethiopia, and so Somalia has now teamed up with Egypt against Ethiopia. The end product is Ethiopia and Somaliland against Somalia and Egypt. It has manifested as Somaliland giving Ethiopia access to the Red Sea, and Egypt shipping weapons to Somalia.
What happens next isn’t particularly clear. The Grand Renaissance Dam is nearly at full capacity, and began producing electricity in 2022. While negotiations have never really succeeded, the situation that Egypt fears most has not particularly come to pass, and negotiations on technicalities - such as the rate at which the dam’s reservoir is filled, or how policies may change during times of drought - offer room to build trust and find real solutions.
TAI Score: Degree 3. The dispute over rights to the Nile’s fresh water are causing real, tangible strains on relations in north and east Africa, and are manifesting in ways that could quickly spiral out of control. At the same time however, small victories can be won through diplomacy that build trust - and eventually lead to larger victories. The situation will require constant monitoring to ensure a favourable outcome is experienced by all.
*Somaliland and Somalia are, technically, two different places. More info on Somaliland is available here.
