What Happened to Somali Pirates?

In 2011, an aid worker named Jessica Buchanan was held captive by pirates in Somalia for three months before being rescued by American Navy SEALs. Her story of being held captive by Somali pirates was, at the time, not unusual for that part of the world - in the first nine months of 2010, nearly half of the recorded 290 piracy attacks worldwide were from Somalia. And then, it seemed, they disappeared for a long time - while 358 attacks were recorded from 2010-2015, only 8 were recorded from 2016-2022. In fact, “Somalia” and “piracy” were colloquially considered mutually inclusive in the early 2010s - enough to create a Tom Hanks film based on a true story about it.

Somali pirates hold rifles towards water cannons seeking to repel them. Source: CommercialRiskOnline

But how did this happen?

The first, and probably most straightforward reason, is that the international response was dramatically increased. The EU and NATO independently ran parallel missions in the Red Sea, as well as the deployment of vessels from India, China, Russia, South Korea, Japan, Malaysia, and Singapore. These countries held UN-approval to use “all necessary means” to repress piracy and maritime robbery.

Somalia itself also initiated efforts to enforce the law at its shoreline. The country re-strategised its national security approach using funds delivered by the UN to deal with the problem in August 2021. Organising a coalition of countries against pirate-linked terror groups, such as Al Shabaab, further helped to stabilise the country against the pirates’ base of support and foundational geography.

Finally, Somalia’s laws and legal “toolbox” to deal with pirates became much clearer, allowing courts to handle the cases with better guidance. President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud definitively identified Somalia’s maritime zones, and further preventing illegal foreign fishing from taking place - a trend frequently linked to piracy.

It does, however, appear that piracy may be making a comeback. In April 2024, Somali pirates successfully hijacked and ransomed off a Bangladeshi-flagged vessel for USD $5 million, though this could not be independently verified. Prior to this incident, more than 20 attempted hijackings (a number that rose to 30 by June 2024) had been made since November 2023, an undeniable spike in pirate activity. The diversion of naval forces to deal with strikes from Yemeni rebels and deterioration of Somalian domestic security doctrines as the military gets caught up dealing with separatist groups have meant that there has been little ability to deal with piracy. One thing is for certain though: a resurgence in piracy will further destabilise the Red Sea, and cost the global economy more than USD $7 million this time around.

TAI Score: Degree 3. Piracy itself won’t lead to catastrophic outcomes, but the security risk posed by it is enough to drive shipping insurance premiums significantly higher than normal. The impact on supply chains and military activity is clear - and may cause a near-shoring phenomenon for companies that simply do not want to deal with the threats posed by pirates in any part of the world.

The BRP Sierra Madre

A map depicts the competing claims over the South China Sea. Chinese claims are depicted in red. Source: VOA

The ships that patrol the South China Sea include every type of ship you can imagine, including everything from cargo ships and fishing vessels to destroyers designed to hunt down submarines. And it’s probably not surprising - the area is critical for global trade, with about USD $3.4 trillion passing through each year ($140 billion of which comes from Hong Kong alone), and is a contested maritime area split up between the claims of at least six countries*.

But there’s one ship in the area that truly stands out from the rest.

The Sierra Madre is a Filipino ship that was built in the US in 1944. Left behind by the end of the Second World War, the Sierra Madre was little more than a sentry and transport vessel for decades - until it became the lynchpin of a dispute at the heart of one of East Asia’s security hotspots.

In 1999, the ship was intentionally run aground on the disputed Second Thomas Shoal, a region under dispute between Manila and Beijing. Ever since, it has been manned by Filipino soldiers on three month-long shifts, who pass the time by watching films, singing karaoke, and playing basketball on the ship’s helipad while keeping an eye out for patrolling Chinese ships. They even fish in the waters, and sell the dried catch back on short to earn an extra income.

The ship, however, is falling apart - as is expected of a beached vessel from the 1940s, after 25 years exposed to the elements. The situation is made even worse as past attempts to resupply and reinforce the aged ship have been met with harassment and ramming attacks from the Chinese coast guard, including one incident in which a Filipino sailor lost his right thumb after the Chinese coast guard attacked the ship with machetes and hammers. It' makes sense too - if the ship collapses from disintegration, there can’t be a permanent Filipino presence on the Shoal, and China can enjoy an easier time of claiming it.

The Sierra Madre is in a state of deep disrepair from age and exposure. Source: The Guardian

But the occasional Filipino resupply mission succeeds - the most recent one from July of this year managed to reinforce part of the Sierra Madre’s hull. Whether this is a violation of a past agreement set up by past president Rodrigo Duterte to stop doing so, or a response to growing pressure from China, is entirely up for debate. But while the legacy of the Second World War can be felt all around us - in the South China Sea, the Sierra Madre means that we can see it.

TAI Score: Degree 5. The situation in the South China Sea is incredibly tense and there is no real end in sight - in fact, the dispute between Beijing and Manila is arguably the most tense standoff in the region. Things are not helped by the presence of the Sierra Madre - but they are certainly worsened by the aggressive Chinese actions in preventing its prolonged existence. Tensions over the area stretch from Singapore to Washington DC - and have a very real potential to spiral out of control.

*The six countries are China, Vietnam, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Brunei.

Global Security’s Last Frontier on Earth

The northernmost permanently inhabited town in the world is Alert, Canada. There’s not much there to speak of - it’s a weather monitoring station, observatory, and airstrip where temperatures routinely reach -37 degrees Celsius (-35 degrees Fahrenheit) in February. Maybe, then, it’s no wonder that less than 60 people live there at any given time.

An icebreaker, currently one of the only ships capable of travelling through the region, makes its way across the North Pole. Source: NOAA

And yet it serves a critical purpose to the Canadian government beyond monitoring Arctic weather patterns: the establishment of infrastructure there gives Canada sovereignty over part of the Arctic itself, which most of the worlds’ most powerful countries - plus a few others - are competing for. Russia planted its flag on the polar seabed in 2007 (perhaps understandably, given Russia’s enormous Arctic coastline), the US expanded its claims in 2023, and even Denmark has made claims through its autonomous region of Greenland. Even China, which has zero geographic areas bordering the Arctic, has defined itself a “Near-Arctic State” so as to justify significant amounts of investments, despite the term having no legitimacy in international law.

So what makes the Arctic, a place that has almost no population on what little land exists there, so valuable that major powers are beginning to diplomatically clash over it?

Fossil Fuels

If you’ve ever studied watched the news for more than the time it takes for you to finish reading this sentence, you’ll already know that these are one of the “usual suspects” when it comes to conflict. The US Geological Survey’s limited estimates anticipate there to be 90 billion barrels of oil, 44 billion barrels of natural gas liquids, and an almost unfathomable 1.67 trillion cubic feet of natural gas. This amounts to about 13% of the world’s undiscovered oil and 30% of its undiscovered natural gas. Although Canada and Denmark have placed banned new oil and gas extraction efforts of any kind (including exploration for new sources), environmental activists have taken Norway to court over concerns that seeking to drill in the Arctic would destabilise local ecosystems. Their concerns are valid - but it may destabilise international politics by an equal amount.

Trade Routes

Climate change is melting polar ice, which leads to both rising sea levels, and the opening of new trade routes throughout the Arctic. This may sound like a good thing, but ownership of Arctic trade routes is as valuable as their existence itself. Russian ownership of the newly established Northern Sea Route gives it legitimacy to use its ships to patrol and defend these trade avenues - and close them off to whomever they decide is no longer welcome to using it. These ports can additionally be quickly converted into military assets - perhaps not as effectively as those located in locations free from ice year-round, but effectively nonetheless.

It’s worth pointing out that the title of this article is very particular - given that if we can’t agree on the Earth’s last frontier in the Arctic because of oil and trade routes, we will certainly struggle to agree on humanity’s next frontier in space.

TAI Score: Degree 3. Competition over the Arctic is already beginning to escalate, before the area is even fully open to fossil fuel excavation and trade route establishment. The competition is additionally taking place between major powers, and goes well beyond a maritime boundary dispute. Careful diplomacy is needed today, to avoid reckless activity tomorrow.

South-South Defence

“South-South Cooperation” is a term that historians have used for decades to refer to mutual reliance among developing countries primarily located in the Global South. It usually manifests in the form of trade - silk being sold to Ghana from Vietnam, rubber from Indonesia being sold to Peru, or rice from Pakistan being sold to Somalia. It’s successful enough that, in many ways, it has actually surpassed the size of North-North trade.

In fact, it has become so successful that it’s moving beyond trade and politics - and moving into international security.

Kenyan forces are leading the coalition to stabilise Haiti. Source: Al Jazeera

When Haiti collapsed earlier this year - February, to be exact - it consisted of gangs seizing control of the country and its infrastructure in a sort of anarchist coup d’etat that began with 4500 prisoners being freed in assaults on prisons. In addition to considerable loss of human life from gang violence, over 350,000 people are displaced because of natural disasters and 5 million people - roughly half of the national population - is facing extreme hunger.

One country is taking the lead to tackle the humanitarian catastrophe, and it’s one that most people would have never guessed: Kenya.

To be clear, Kenyan forces are leading a UN project to stabilise the situation, as opposed to Kenya acting on its own. It’s not the first time Kenya has sent forces outside of its borders either - their forces are currently within UN troops in the DR Congo, fought against the Al Shabaab terror group in Somalia, and even battled the Japanese in Burma during WWII.

Kenya also stands to gain from stabilising Haiti. It serves as a form of diplomatic capital, and trains Kenyan police and military assets. The same is true of countries joining Kenya - namely, Jamaica, the Bahamas, Antigua and Barbuda, Benin, Chad, and Bangladesh. Many more are helping financially, and several African countries are even offering settlement opportunities for Haitians wishing to move there.

As with everything, however, the mission is not without critics. Kenya’s coalition forces will not be able to build a restored political scene in Haiti, and a funding crisis means that the mission may be taken over by the UN directly.

But the willingness for the Global South to solve its own problems is a huge landmark for international politics - because if there are countries in the Global South capable of standing on their own to help each other, then international development and political systems are working. It wasn’t long ago that a phenomenon like this was unthinkable.

TAI Score: Degree 1. As long as affairs are properly handled, South-South defence assistance is no bad thing, particularly if done with the blessing of the UN. But care needs to be taken to ensure that the situation is not worsened during or after these overseas operations, or the optics of foreign intervention may yet again be challenged.

The Grand Renaissance Dam

Egypt’s population density is extremely odd, but probably not surprising. 95% of the 105 million people who live in Egypt reside just a few miles away from the legendary Nile River - which makes sense considering more than 90% of the country is a desert. In every country on Earth, access to water is a foundational building block of society, a fact which holds true since the first human settlement was established approximately 10,000 years ago. Put simply: people cannot live without water.

It’s a fundamental fact that makes the Grand Renaissance Dam so utterly controversial.

Egypt's population is extremely reliant on fresh water from the Nile. Source: CIA World Factbook

The dam is not located in Egypt. It’s not even located near Egypt. In fact, it’s located almost 1,300km away in the Ethiopian town of Bameza, on the other side of Sudan. The dam is hydroelectric, predicted to be the largest dam of any kind in Africa, and will double Ethiopia’s production of electricity without emitting any CO2 into the atmosphere. Dams also boost agricultural output - they provide a stable, reliable source of fresh water that can feed both plants and livestock. This trend would be lifesaving in a place like east Africa where food security is often shaky - or worse.

On the subject of food security, and in direct contrast to the benefits of the dam to Ethiopia above: the exact same dam will likely cripple Egypt.

Given the aforementioned statistics about Egypt’s population density, it’s probably not a surprise that the dam is a source of great concern in Cairo. Cutting the water flow to Egypt and Sudan would dramatically impact both societies. A mere 2% reduction in Egyptian freshwater availability would cause a loss of 200,000 acres of irrigated land.

This has, naturally, affected east African politics. It’s a little tangled, but to put it as simply as possible: Egypt doesn’t like Ethiopia, Ethiopia likes Somaliland*, Somaliland doesn’t like Somalia, Somalia now doesn’t like Ethiopia, and so Somalia has now teamed up with Egypt against Ethiopia. The end product is Ethiopia and Somaliland against Somalia and Egypt. It has manifested as Somaliland giving Ethiopia access to the Red Sea, and Egypt shipping weapons to Somalia.

What happens next isn’t particularly clear. The Grand Renaissance Dam is nearly at full capacity, and began producing electricity in 2022. While negotiations have never really succeeded, the situation that Egypt fears most has not particularly come to pass, and negotiations on technicalities - such as the rate at which the dam’s reservoir is filled, or how policies may change during times of drought - offer room to build trust and find real solutions.

TAI Score: Degree 3. The dispute over rights to the Nile’s fresh water are causing real, tangible strains on relations in north and east Africa, and are manifesting in ways that could quickly spiral out of control. At the same time however, small victories can be won through diplomacy that build trust - and eventually lead to larger victories. The situation will require constant monitoring to ensure a favourable outcome is experienced by all.

*Somaliland and Somalia are, technically, two different places. More info on Somaliland is available here.

Why There’s No Asian NATO

On the 27th of September, Japan’s next Prime Minister was identified. Shigeru Ishiba, who has launched a campaign for the role on four previous occasions, will take over from Fumio Kishida following his resignation after a number of corruption scandals plagued the Liberal Democratic party - which has dominated Japanese politics for decades. Ishiba is Japan’s former defence minister, and has earned a number of enemies from within his own party for proposing ideas like a more balanced defence relationship with the USA, including the creation of an Asian equivalent to NATO.

Japan's next Prime Minister has called for the creation of an Asian NATO in the past. Source: AsiaTimes

Which begs the question: why isn’t there one already?

The original NATO was, according to their site’s history page, founded for three reasons: deterrence against the Soviets, using a North American military presence to prevent fascism in Europe after WWII, and encouraging political integration among European states. The founding members shared a common history and mostly common geography - they were western European countries that had, by the end of the war, cooperated in varying capacities to defeat Germany.

The East Asian story is, by most accounts, entirely different - for three key reasons.

The Mutual Relations Factor

Although regional powers were united against Japan after WWII, those same countries found themselves fighting their own internal battles against communism in a way that European countries did not. Korea was split in half along ideological lines, the nationalist government of China had completely retreated to Taiwan, and communism slowly flourished in Vietnam before completely taking over the country. Only Japan did not face these struggles - because its political reconstruction was directly led by the US. On top of that, these countries still largely harboured animosity towards Japan due to the horrific war crimes it carried out during the conflict that took place barely 20 years prior. Thus, in order to maximise influence over (and act as an intermediary between) these countries, the US created a “hub and spoke” system that guaranteed each country had relations with the US - but not necessarily one another.

The China Factor

A Chinese newspaper claims that the AUKUS nuclear submarine deal is not in Australia's best interest. Source: Global Times

There are already NATO-like structures present in Asia-Pacific. The QUAD alliance consisting of the US, Japan, Australia, and India is an informal maritime security organisation that arose out of the recovery efforts following the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami. AUKUS (Australia, the UK, and the US) routinely showcases its advancements towards cooperation in the Indo-Pacific, with its flagship achievement to date including the provision of submarines powered by nuclear fuel to the Australian Royal Navy. Both alliances are largely informal, and neither include more than four members. And yet, both the QUAD and AUKUS have been sharply criticised by China - whose influence the two alliances seeks to contain. The creation of an Asian NATO, therefore, would undoubtedly sound alarm bells in Beijing, where the other two alliances are already unpopular. Its creation would serve as a justification for a more assertive Chinese foreign policy in order to combat what it sees as its “containment”.

The Neutrality Factor

Looking beyond China, East and Southeast Asia is full of countries that, quite simply, do not want to get caught up in these types of rivalries. Vietnam, for example, proudly upholds its “Four No’s” foreign policy approach, which prohibits 1) joining any military alliance, 2) taking sides in disputes, 3) having foreign military bases or activity in its borders, and 4) using force in international policy. Indonesia does not currently seek to be bound to any global power or military pact, nor does the official ASEAN bloc. The political will simply isn’t there - even if Japan, South Korea, and the US created a new trilateral agreement - it would be difficult to find a focus point. Put simply: South Korea likely doesn’t have a vested interest in the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands dispute.

TAI Score: Degree 3. The creation of an Asian NATO is likely to create more problems than it solves by creating a sense of panic in China. Even if a mutual guarantee of defence is established in the event of a conflict, it would likely trigger conflict if somewhere like Taiwan - where the pact would be most important - were to join. For countries like Japan, Vietnam, or South Korea, its implementation might ward off outward Chinese aggression, but may cause a rise in internal issues such as cyber attacks and the proliferation of organised crime.

The World’s Most Unique Royalty System

Queen Elizabeth II was, debatably, the most famous woman in modern history. She is more recognisable than Mother Teresa, Malala Yousafzai, and any pop singer or celebrity. The royalty system under which she spent her entire life is a story those of us here in the west can wrap our heads around: she belonged to the Windsor family, was born as a princess and, when her father died in 1952, she began her life as the longest-reigning monarch in British history. This system isn’t unique to Britian, either - it’s common throughout the remaining monarchies of western Europe.

Malaysia’s system is a little less straightforward to those of us less exposed to it. Unless you speak Bahasa, even the title - Yang-di Pertuan Agong - is a lot more to handle than “King” or “Queen”, and literally translates to “He Who is Made Supreme Lord”. For cultural reasons, this figure will be referred to as Sultan throughout the article.

The current Sultan came to the throne in July of this year. Source: Bharian.com

Malaysia’s monarchy operates on a rotational system. Terms last for five years, and are elected from a council of Sultans that take turns as national figurehead (though the position is largely ceremonial, as Malaysia is a constitutional monarchy). The election itself consists of a secret vote with a ballot - not that there’s much point in the ballot’s contents, since it only contains the name of the next monarch whose turn it is - so the vote is more a question of whether or not that particular sultan-to-be is fit for the role.

The system consists of nine sultans, who represent 13 provinces of Malaysia.

The current Sultan - named Ibrahim Sultan Iskandar - came to the throne in July of this past year, and has been expected to play a more active role in national politics. Over the course of his first month alone, the Sultan has conducted a diplomatic trip to China, and ordered a probe into a national scandal involving child abuse.

TAI Score: Degree 0. The royalty system in Malaysia is not a threat to national or international security.

Kurdistan

You’ve probably heard this name in the news before - more than a few times - without knowing where it is. I don’t blame you at all - it’s confusing when the name “Kurdistan” is usually mentioned at the same time as Turkey, Iraq, Iran, or Syria.

It certainly makes one wonder how a country can exist inside of four different countries, and at the same time, not at all.

Kurdistan's geography spans four different countries. Source: Encyclopedia Britannica

Kurds, have always lived in the region stretching from eastern Turkey to northwestern Iran. It has dealt with an enormous number of conquerors and invaders throughout history - including the Greeks, Arabs, Mongols, Turks, Persians, British, and Americans - contributing to the adage that Kurds have “no friends but the mountains” that have given them sanctuary across millennia.

The idea of a defined region named “Kurdistan” was originally established in Iraq in the 1970s, when a deal with Baghdad provided increased autonomy to ethnic Kurds living in the country’s north and northeast. It wasn’t long until they found themselves far less fortunate*: in 1973, Syrian Kurds found themselves weakened and displaced from resource-rich areas that Syrian Arabs wanted access to, Turkish Kurds were forced to scatter when a coup in Turkey turned on them, and the collapse of the aforementioned autonomy agreement in 1974 meant that even Iraqi Arabs no longer tolerated their community. To meet the goal of ethnic cleansing, a genocide known as the Anfal took place, which resulted in horrific atrocities and human rights violations. 

The Iran-Iraq War and years following were perhaps the most brutal years that Kurdistan has faced to date. Caught in the middle of the Iranian Revolution, which the Iraqi government feared would spread to Baghdad and thus launched an invasion of Iran, the Iranian Kurds staged a revolt against the new government - which failed, and ended in the imprisonment, torture, and deaths for thousands of Kurds. All of this came after decades of separate guerrilla campaigns in Iraq, Iran, Turkey, and Syria were waged - and each failed.

Kurds do not have statehood despite being the fourth-largest ethnicity in the Middle East. Source: BBC

After the Gulf War of the 1990s, an alliance of Kurdish political parties formed and held democratic elections, despite having no country to lead. It even has it’s own defined (though unrecognised) borders, foreign policy, parliament, and military (known as the Peshmerga). The Peshmerga were also instrumental in helping to overthrow* Saddam Hussein alongside US forces in 2003. This was not, however, the end of their military history - the rise of the Islamic State ten years ago called the Peshmerga back into action against the terror group with international backing, with the EU, Russia, the US, Canada, UK, and Iran supporting them with military training, money, and hardware. Although ISIS was, and is, not fully defeated, Kurdish efforts cost the terror group 95% of its existing territory - including its “capitals” and largest cities by the end of 2017. Support for the Peshmerga remains ongoing - though the establishment of a Kurdish state seems as far away as ever.

TAI Score: Degree 2. Although an established, internationally recognised Kurdistan is not a threat in itself, and may actually be beneficial to US and European interests in the Middle East, it would prove extremely unpopular in Iraq, Iran, Syria, and Turkey. Historical animosity and complex relations throughout the already tense region would likely lead to increased conflict in a Middle East that is already facing plenty.

*Please be aware that this source contains graphic imagery. Viewer discretion is advised.

The Wars We’ve Forgotten

At the time of writing this article, two wars, and one potential conflict, absolutely dominate the headlines: the Russo-Ukrainian War, the Israel-Hamas War, and the potential war between China and Taiwan. These wars are, arguably, drawing in major amounts of coverage because they are loosely, if not directly, linked to major adversaries of Western powers. Russia is operating in Ukraine, Iran has ties to militia groups in open conflict with Israel, and China would be actively engaged in a potential invasion of Taiwan.

You don’t need to read SimpleNation to know, however, that the past 15 years have witnessed plenty of other conflicts that, although they continue to this day, are still raging on to varying degrees. They aren’t obscure ones, either - they certainly made headlines when they began, but it seems the average person has forgotten about them.

A dance instructor films her routine while Tatmadaw vehicles descend on Myanmar's Parliament in the background. Source: The Guardian

Myanmar

The military in Myanmar, or Tatmadaw as it’s known locally, has a long history of fading from, then returning to, power in Burmese politics. In February of 2021 - well within recent memory - the Tatmadaw declared the results of pro-democracy elections invalid, arrested the new parliament mere hours before they convened, and installed a one-year “state of emergency” in the country. The response from the Burmese public was massive: tens of thousands of people protested, enough to generate the creation of a parallel government that has declared war on the military junta. Several dozen armed groups with varying sizes, objectives, and capabilities now exist in open defiance of the Tatmadaw.

To further complicate matters, China appears to be supporting a number of groups - including both the Tatmadaw and several resistance factions. Although there is merely speculation at this time, it would appear that assistance is given to whoever happens to control the region where Chinese interests and assets lay, in order to maximise benefit to China.

Syria

Emerging out of the chaos of the Arab Spring from the early 2010s, the Syrian civil war is now in its 13th year - a considerable length for a modern conflict. Prior to the outbreak of warfare, many Syrians faced high unemployment, open corruption, and a lack of civil liberties. Protests broke out after 15 boys, inspired by acts in other countries such as Tunisia and Egypt, were arrested and tortured for spray-painting an anti-government slogan on a school wall. The Syrian army responded with extreme force, cracking down on protests and arresting hundreds of people in the first four months of 2011 alone.

A year later, the situation had spiraled into a civil war and complete breakdown of the state, after which Islamist fighters took advantage of the chaos to establish territory. So many competing interests began to take shape that at least five foreign militaries (the USA, the UK, Iran, Russia, and Turkey) began operations in Syria - some more directly than others. This is further excluding the different armed resistance groups also operating in Syria against government forces and terror groups.

Sudan

Thousands of people flee conflict in Sudan every day. Source: UNHCR

The situation in Sudan is perhaps the most serious conflict on this list. It’s certainly the youngest, having emerged as recently as April 2023.

Fighting originally broke out in Khartoum between rival military factions: the main branch of the Sudanese Armed Forces, and a paramilitary group known as the Rapid Support Forces. The breakdown in the relationship came from an attempted merger of the RSF into the SAF as a mainstream arm of the military - but disagreements over leadership of the new force continually intensified until violence emerged in Sudan.

The SAF was not even meant to lead the government at the time: an unpopular, ineffective prime minister was unable to rule without force, leaving him at the mercy of security services and, eventually, forcing a resignation - placing power into the hands of the SAF. Since the fighting began, not one attempted ceasefire agreement - usually drafted by the US or Saudi Arabia - has been upheld.

The humanitarian fallout from Sudan is staggering: 12 million people have been displaced, and the WHO is reporting that starvation has effectively become a nationwide problem.

The World’s Other North Korea

The countries that have emerged out of the former communist world are an utter tapestry of results. Poland and the Baltic states are an economic success story that has almost fully integrated with western European politics. Ukraine has struggled - and continues to struggle - with a departure from Russian influence. Belarus, on the other hand, has gone so far as to form a union government with Moscow and responded with force to protests that contested the country’s election in late 2020. Moving towards Central Asia, this situation was (more so in outcome than in origin) not too different from when Russia sent troops to Kazakhstan to suppress riots there in late 2021. Lastly, Kyrgyzstan usually ranks somewhere just below the global average for democracy scores - which may explain why there seems to be a state of constant revolts there.

Turkmenbashy's statue towers over the capital city of Ashgabat. Source: Flickr

But there’s one country existing in a truly strange state of affairs that almost has to be seen to be believed.

There’s a very high chance you’ve never been to Turkmenistan (please reach out to me if you have). As a British citizen, simply acquiring a visa takes a minimum of two months, and requires a letter of invitation, registration with the State Migration Service in the capital city of Ashgabat, and paying a tourism tax of USD $14 upfront (plus $2 per day). All of which is probably the least unusual aspect of Turkmenistan itself.

On a German list of countries ranked by democratic values, Turkmenistan scores 164th out of 176 countries - placing it below Venezuela, Cuba, Libya, Belarus, and Iran. It occupies a space only 11 ranks higher than North Korea but, much like North Korea, is governed by a cult figure holding a god-like status in the national myth. Turkmenbashi - whose name was Saparmurat Niyazov - is so openly revered in Turkmenistan that a golden statue of him was built, and rotates to constantly face the sun. It’s not Ashgabat’s only monument either - other city landmarks include another gold statue of the current president atop a horse, the world’s largest indoor Ferris wheel, and even a statue of the book that serves as the national constitution and writings of Turkmenbashi. Ashgabat boasts 543 buildings made of solid marble (the highest concentration in the world), cars are mandated to be white in colour, and dogs are outright banned from the city. Outside of Ashgabat is the Darvaza gas crater, a perpetually-burning pit produced by a Soviet mining accident that leaks natural gas - the country’s main export.

The Darvaza gas crater has been burning for over fifty years. Source: Smithsonian Magazine

You probably won’t be surprised, then, to hear that that the human rights situation in Turkmenistan is dire. Authorities tightly control the spread of information, women and girls face considerable discrimination (even in the form of a dress code to “preserve national heritage”), and even the smallest of protests have led to civil detention. An extensive list of human rights abuses from Turkmenistan is also available on the US State Department’s website.

Interested in visiting? Book a trip to Turkmenistan today!

TAI Score: Degree 2. Turkmenistan’s lack of democratic values or civil liberties is certainly cause for concern. While the country rarely - if ever - projects power beyond its borders, issues with drug and human trafficking, as well as financial crimes, make the country rife with business risk. Normalised relations with most countries allow for state-to-state engagement, but the opacity of politics in Turkmenistan make the approach difficult beyond the surface level for most countries.

The Deadliest Conflict You’ve Never Heard Of

Africa is frequently, and regrettably, overlooked and misunderstood by analysts. Despite a population of 1.5 billion in 2024 - more populous than any single country - the Norwegian Refugee Council details how the world’s ten most neglected crises are all in Africa, research and development from Africa is frequently overlooked and under-influential, and approximately five times as many people have been displaced in Sudan than in Palestine.

Congolese soldiers carry rifles while wearing natural camouflage. Source: The Egmont Institute

This trend is even more acute when we examine the Second Congo War - which killed nearly six million people in just ten years less than twenty years ago. In fact, this conflict was so brutal, it remains the deadliest conflict in the world since the Second World War - and most people have never heard of it.

Sadly, the Great War of Africa’s origins are no more peaceful than the war itself was. Emerging from the legacy of the Rwandan Genocide, Hutu refugees in the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) formed extremist militias - which found themselves at odds against Congolese Tutsis backed by Rwanda.

If you’re already finding it confusing, I don’t blame you. To put it extremely briefly: Tutsis in Rwanda backed Tutsis in the eastern DRC to fight against Hutus that had fled from - and become violent against - them.

At the same time, Congolese dissatisfied with the corrupt leadership of President Mobutu formed rebel groups to have him overthrown. Mobutu, unpopular in Rwanda as well, quickly found himself fighting not only his own people - but the Rwandans as well, assisted by Mobutu’s chief opponent, Laurent Kabila. This became known as the First Congo War, and it not only included Uganda, Angola, and Burundi, but also concluded with Mobutu’s replacement by Kabila as president of the DRC.

An estimated 7 million people have been displaced by conflict in the eastern DRC. Source: AfricaNews

The relationship between Kabila and Rwanda, who supported him, was short-lived however. In 1998, Kabila found himself unhappy with the eastern DRC remaining unstable and, in a shocking turnaround, he ordered all foreign troops to leave the DRC. Only one year after the First Congo War ended, the Second Congo War began. The conflict truly flared when Rwanda and Uganda, as well as the rebels they backed, jointly invaded the DRC again - only to find themselves fighting Congolese, Angolan, Namibian, and Zimbabwean forces. The death toll of this conflict is staggering: the International Rescue Committee estimates that from 1998 - 2004, the period when the most serious fighting took place, almost 4 million people died in just six years.

What’s worse is that this issue has not gone away: tens of thousands of people continue to be directly affected, as recently as February of this year. Furthermore, Rwanda and Uganda continue to back rebels, such as the M23 resistance group, in the eastern DRC, and although diplomacy continues to be pursued, a lasting solution has yet to be found.

TAI Score: Degree 4. Regional stability must be monitored and pursued to guarantee that a catastrophe like the First and Second Congo Wars are not repeated. Even without a widespread outbreak of warfare, the cost of instability in the region is extremely high. This places strain on supply chains for raw materials and, far more importantly, puts human security at great risk. We must not allow Africa’s issues to continue going unnoticed, lest those of us in the West be caught by surprise.

Four Places You’ll (Probably) Never Visit

There’s a good deal of fun wondering what goes on in places that cause us all to put on our metaphorical aluminium-foil hats. Are there really signs of extraterrestrial life in Area 51, and if not, then why do over half of American adults believe that there’s more than the government lets on regarding UFOs - and why has this belief been in place for seven decades now?

And what other places are there like it around the world, where visitors are strictly forbidden?

North Sentinel Island

Located in the Indian Ocean, this island gained a state of notoriety in 2018 when an American missionary attempted to convert the local people, who killed him on sight. It may seem extreme, but it isn’t the first time this has happened. It isn’t that the locals need a lesson in hospitality - the tribesmen there, about which we know extremely little, are incredibly hostile to outside forces. It’s understood that while they may have an understanding of basic archery, it’s believed that agricultural practice still has not made its way to the island - despite arising in ancient civilisations as long as 12,000 years ago.

The first recorded trip to the island took place in 1867 under the watch of Jeremiah Homfray, a British colonial officer following the trail of escaped convicts. Warnings from local guides convinced him not to land, but later expeditions - specifically those of Maurice Vidal Portman - kidnapped several Sentinelese natives, causing them to quickly become ill and perish. This remains the leading explanation for the tribe’s open hostility. Madhumala Chattopadhyay remains arguably the most successful anthropologist to have established contact with them, given her efforts to send them coconuts in person without incident.

North Sentinel Island remains, to this day, off-limits to visitors and its waters are routinely patrolled by the Indian navy. SimpleNation wrote an article about North Sentinel Island in 2022 - click here for more details!

Pluto’s Gate

The architecture of Pluto's Gate show a number of tunnels leading to subterranean chambers. Source: Atlas Obscura

Also known as the Gate to the Underworld, or the Gate to Hell, Pluto’s Gate exists in modern-day Turkey. It consists of a “viewing area” or with a statue of Hades, the Greek god of the underworld, with subterranean chambers that grant the site its spot on this list. Built over two thousand years ago by Greco-Romans, its existence baffled locals for one particular reason: animals that entered the gate would drop dead after mere seconds.

Strabo, a Greek philosopher who lived from 64 BC to about 24 AD, conducted this test by releasing sparrows into the tunnel, only to observe them “[meet] their instant death…they immediately breathed their last and fell.”. Even more bizarrely, priests performing sacrifices to Pluto at the site remained completely unharmed. Thus, it’s no surprise that residents of the area at the time believed the area to house a portal to Hell.

Modern scientists, however, have determined the cause for this extremely unusual phenomenon: by bringing a gas analyser into the ruins, volcanologists determined the presence extremely high levels of carbon dioxide in the air - which would have originated from the same source as nearby hot springs, and condense into liquid as temperatures cooled at night. Further notes from Strabo, which seem to indicate the aforementioned priests were holding their breath, further support this theory. While tourists can visit the site, entry into the tunnel is forbidden.

Room 39

North Korea is, at the best of times, and extremely opaque society. The entry requirements for British citizens are extensive given the country’s status as the “Hermit Kingdom” - the Foreign Office warns against bringing anything with GPS technology, books in Korean, anything with religious connotations or digital media capabilities, and anything that could be deemed “anti-government” by North Korean authorities. Even while on tour, photography and filming is strictly controlled by your non-optional tour guide.

Room 39, however, is probably the most secretive location in this already secretive country.

Located on the third floor of the the Korean Worker’s Party (KWP)’s headquarters in Pyongyang, it is believed to be the personal treasury for the ruling elite of the KWP that oversees almost every aspect of life in North Korea. This enables them to side-step sanctions designed to prevent them from acquiring foreign currency. The finances within are understood by foreign intelligence officials as being spent on lavish gifts for party loyalty - including cars, cognac, and more.

It is not likely that the finances within come from sales taxes places on its citizens - rather, one defector has claimed that the money within comes from transnational crime, including narcotics trafficking, gem exports, and cyber attacks. The Financial Times has an article outlining in greater detail the network of shadowy business transactions linked to Room 39 and North Korea’s never-ending quest for foreign cash.

Ni’ihau

Ni'ihau's cliffs rise high above the Pacific Ocean. Source: TravelToParadise

Nearly two million people visited Hawaii in 2023, a figure stretching 300,000 people more than the island’s resident population during the same year. While the island archipelago has 137 islands, eight of them are considered major, and have the names most familiar to the average person: Maui, Oahu, and Hawaii Island itself. The smallest of these eight islands, Ni’ihau, is something of an anomaly.

Ni’ihau is the only place on Earth where Hawaiian is the only official language. There are no paved roads, no running water, no telephone or internet connections, and all electricity is generated by solar panels. In order to create cultural preservation for native Hawaiians, the Robinson family from New Zealand purchased the island in 1864 before prohibiting access to anyone who was and is not a native Hawaiian, member of the family, or a directly invited guest. Ni’ihau’s 70 full-time residents survive by hunting, fishing, and collecting rainwater.

While aerial tours of the island can take place by helicopter, landing is forbidden on Ni’ihau, and interactions between visitors and native Hawaiians is forbidden. The reason for this level of prohibition goes beyond cultural preservation - the island also holds religious connotations: Pele, the Hawaiian goddess of volcanoes who created the island chain, is believed to have made her first home on the island of Ni’ihau.