The Global Population Shift
A family in Niger, the country with the youngest average population in the world, poses for the camera in their home. Source: World Vision International
For decades, demographers, geographers, and other social scientists have been warning about the dangers of overpopulation. Resource scarcity, environmental degradation, and strains placed on public infrastructure are all effects of the planet’s status of having, quite simply, too many people. However, the late Hans Rosling, a legendary Swedish demographer, advised the world not to panic - identifying as early as 2010 that assuming the world’s most impoverished nations continued to develop, global populations would not surpass 11 billion before declining - all within the next century. In spite of his optimism however, Rosling may have been a little too correct. The most developed countries in the world - and even those with middling levels of development - are indeed facing a demographic crisis, though curiously, it is the opposite of that which so many geographers predicted less than 20 years ago.
To give an example, in 2010, Brookings published an article stating that “China still has the world’s largest population and its population is still growing. It is also due in part to a continued tendency in China and elsewhere to believe that overpopulation is the root cause of all problems.”. In direct contrast, in April of this year, the BBC identified that “the country is running out of time to build enough of a fund to care for the growing number of elderly.” - a certain sign of a rapidly shrinking population.
Declines in global fertility rates are caused by a wide variety of factors, the primary three of which are identified by the World Economic Forum: women’s education and workforce empowerment, lower child mortality, and rising costs of raising a family. In 2023, this crisis was especially severe in East Asia, with half of the ten least fertile entries on the list located in the region (Taiwan, Hong Kong, Macau, Singapore, and South Korea). By contrast, only two (Spain and Italy) are located in western Europe. By contrast, the list of countries with the highest fertility rates are dominated by countries in Saharan and sub-Saharan Africa - of the top 20 countries listed, only one (Afghanistan) is not located in Africa.
A graph shows the current predictions for the number of working-age individuals in South Korea until 2072. Source: Statista
Where overpopulation presents numerous challenges - as mentioned above - underpopulation introduces obstacles of a different nature. Businesses experience lower demand and fewer workers, governments struggle to tax working populations, and less money is spent on public infrastructure as a result. If a population is aging, this is especially serious as an increasing amount of money will be further required to spend on pensions and medical facilities - without a return on investment.
At the time of this article’s publication, no country appears to have a plan for tackling the issue of shrinking demographics. The European Union has turned to immigration as a solution, while Japan has introduced financial aid for young families. What may be most certain, however, is that a one-size-fits-all policy across the world’s multitude of cultures, economies, and environments is unlikely to emerge.
TAI Score: Degree 3. While low fertility rates and a declining population may not be security threats in and of themselves, they may cause shifts in politics and society that may lead to increased competition between actors. Finding ways to maintain pensions and public infrastructure with a declining population will lead to challenges that may require tough decisions to be made. Political and business leaders will need to remain creative and aware of challenges and risks caused by a shrinking number of people.
The Great Toyota War
“The fact of being an underdog changes people in ways that we often fail to appreciate…[it] permits things that might otherwise have seemed unthinkable”
-Malcolm Gladwell
The beginning of this century heavily featured conflict in the Middle East and North Africa. The aftermath of the September 11th attacks witnessed the beginning of conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan, while instability in Sudan took place only a short flight away from the Yemeni Civil War and Boko Haram War in northern Nigeria. For a period, many of these conflicts became overshadowed by the Arab Spring that erupted across the Middle East and North Africa region in the early 2010s - and continues to affect Syria today.
The Aouzou Strip, the area of dispute, is marked in blue. Source: New World Encyclopedia
The Middle East, North Africa, and Sahel regions are no strangers to conflict, and all three regions continue to struggle with instability after decades. But there’s one that stands out as being somewhat unusual from the others.
From 1978 - 1987, a series of skirmishes between Libya and Chad erupted over a border dispute along their shared border in the Aouzou Strip, an area believed to contain considerable uranium deposits. Hostilities had begun after a revolt in the north of Chad in the early 1960s, spurred on by the president’s banning of opposition political parties, was armed by Libyan forces, then led by Muammar Qaddafi. This guerrilla-style civil war continued for approximately two decades, during which time the appointment of numberous anti-Libyan Prime Ministers, including Felix Malloum (the first to be appointed by the outcome of a military coup), and Hissene Habre, took place.
In 1987, the series of guerrilla skirmishes that had been taking place along the Strip significantly flared up. A Libyan force of over 8000 soldiers, 300 tanks, and a considerable amount of airpower invaded Chad to secure the Aouzou Strip, greatly outnumbering and overpowering the Chadian forces.
Until the donation of 400 Toyotas from the French Air Force changed the face of vehicular warfare.
A technical hauls an anti-aircraft battery through the Sahara Desert. Source: CarsGuide
Although the term itself comes from the Somali civil war in the 1990s, the modern “technical” was so widely used against Libyan forces in 1987 that it gave birth to the name “Great Toyota War”. By being too light to trigger anti-tank mines, and too fast to properly pin down, Toyota pickup trucks with heavy weaponry (including .50 calibre machine guns and anti-tank missiles) strapped to the truck bed allowed for Chad to unleash extremely rapid and powerful attacks against Soviet-supplied Libyan forces before vanishing back into the desert. The tactic proved so successful that at their first use in the Battle of Fada alone, Chadian forces neutralised nearly 800 Libyan fighters, over 90 tanks, and 18 armoured vehicles while sustaining only 18 casualties and the loss of three Toyota pickup trucks. In doing so, Chad successfully retained control over the Aouzou Strip.
Toyotas have since been used - and continue to be used - as technicals in irregular warfare throughout the world, including Nicaragua, Rwanda, and Pakistan. In 2014, likely in response to their use by ISIS forces in the Levant, Toyota issued a statement that reads “Toyota abides by the laws and regulations of each country or region where we operate. [We have] a strict policy and due diligence in place to not sell vehicles to a potential purchaser who may modify such vehicles for military use without our knowledge and consent.”. The Military Times (via the @ToyotasOfWar instagram account) reports that Toyotas excel at warfare due to their development in the Korean War, as well as adaptability, durability, reliability, and availability.
TAI Score: Degree 2. While the Libya-Chad conflict has ended, the use of Toyotas and other civilian vehicles by insurgents and other asymmetric war actors continues to pose a challenge to counter-insurgency (COIN) efforts. The University of Navarra in Pamplona, Spain, has identified a number of reasons for this, including naivety and inefficient in fighting the enemy through their own means, constrains on state actors created by international laws, and difficulty in identifying technicals using aerospace technology.
High Stakes, Low Tech: The Sino-Indian Border Dispute
The city of Itanagar, in the southwestern part of Arunachal Pradesh, is home to approximately 80,000 people. Located in the Himalayan foothills approximately 150 kilometers east of Bhutan, the surrounding area is famous for its Buddhist sites of historical significance, medieval forts, and even outdoor adventure opportunities across the high-altitude landscape.
A map indicating disputed areas between China and India, marked in red. Source: Tribune India
Sadly, Arunachal Pradesh - and other areas along India’s northern, Himalayan frontier - is also home to one of the world’s most tense, complex, and under-reported border disputes. Yet, it manifests itself in one of the most unusual ways: skirmishes between India and China that consist not of firearms, but of fists and blunt weaponry.
The source of tension comes from a poorly defined border stretching approximately 3500km, roughly the same length as the US-Mexico border, along the geographically-hostile Himalayan mountains, and is commonly referred to as the Line of Actual Control (LAC). The LAC includes not only Arunachal Pradesh, but stretches further west towards Aksai Chin, near India’s border with Pakistan and the disputed Kashmir territory as well. The map to the right shows that in reality, given the lack of conflict over borders between China, Nepal, and Bhutan, an overwhelming majority of India’s northern border with China is quite poorly defined.
So why fight with blunt weapons, rather than through more contemporary and conventional means?
According to The Economist, a conscientious desire to avoid open conflict and wide-scale bloodshed has led to an agreement between both China and India to prohibit the use of firearms, explosives, or other means of modern warfare to establish a claim along the LAC. This is based on a 1996 agreement that limits or bans the use of combat tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, the flight of military aircraft inside a 10km radius from the LAC without prior notification, and more.
Video footage released by China shows military police from both sides clashing in the Galwan Valley. Source: South China Morning Post
The agreement, however, appears fragile at best, and violence frequently erupts over the construction of “dual-use” infrastructure (which can be easily converted from civilian to military use) along the LAC. In June 2020, four Chinese soldiers and nearly two dozen Indian soldiers were killed in the Galwan Valley of Ladakh, near Aksai Chin, after facing off with Chinese forces for over a month. Tensions in this particular instance were sparked over the Indian construction of a road leading to an airfield in spite of Chinese protests. Similarly, Chinese infrastructure developments linking Tibet with northern and eastern China via air, road, and railway have sparked considerable concerns in India, given the now-bolstered capability to quickly move large amounts of Chinese troops from across the country towards the Himalayan border.
Thankfully, it has been several years since violent clashes broke out along the Sino-Indian border, and diplomatic discussions (though fruitless thus far) remain a relied-upon resource for both sides. Nonetheless, the situation remains tense and politicised. In late 2023, a map published by the Chinese government showed all disputed territories as part of China, to which the response to Indian outrage was simply: “Stay calm.”.
TAI Score: Degree 3. A more assertive foreign policy stance has emerged under the presidency of Xi Jinping, but spectators have commented that India and China have “too much to lose” by entering armed conflict over the disputed territories. SimpleNation further builds on this line of thought by stating that not only do both sides have much to lose, but also little to gain: the relatively inhospitable geographies of the territories in question offers little to either country, both of which boast already enormous diversity of biomes, robust economic output, and a population of over 1 billion people each. Though a victory for either side would be a significant political and symbolic win, the costs are far too high. Thus, while the situation requires constant monitoring to prevent a disaster, it is not likely to do so at this time.
Caribbean Jihadism
Central America and the Caribbean is no stranger to organised, trans-national crime. The UN’s Office on Drugs and Crime lists the trafficking of drugs, weapons, and people as key issues within the region, with cocaine smuggling emerging as a serious threat to local stability and human life, given the ability of groups to manipulate local politics and exact violence on targeted individuals. Trafficking in the region is especially rife due to difficult-to-patrol coastlines, corruption, and easy access to money laundering capabilities through areas such as the Cayman Islands.
Image Source: Office of the President of the Republic of Trinidad and Tobago
With all of that being said, however, there is one highly focused, and seemingly unusual trend that emerges as a particularly unique security threat: the presence of Jihadist groups in Trinidad & Tobago.
First of all, it is important to define the problem before addressing how it came to be: jihadism refers to the engagement in violent struggle to “eradicate obstacles to restoring God's rule on Earth…[it] is not just a collective obligation, but an individual duty that must be fulfilled by every able Muslim, just like ritual prayer and fasting during Ramadan.” (BBC).
NOTE: Many Muslims do not use this term, as it is viewed as an incorrect association between a noble practicing of faith, and an unacceptable use of force. The word “jihad” itself simply translates to “struggle” or “effort” in English, and in the context of Islam, could refer to any number of things depending on context. The word does not have any ties to violence on its own.
So, why Trinidad & Tobago, a country halfway across the Earth from the Middle East with a population that is 95% non-Muslim?
Tensions between the country’s largest Muslim insurgency, the Jamaat al Muslimeen (JAM), and the local government can be sourced back to a land dispute in the early 1990s, when the group began the construction of housing, a school, a clinic, and a mosque on land without government approval or legal backing. According to Raul Jerrick, from the United States’ Naval Postgraduate School, the group’s evolution from a religious community towards a violent sect took place due to ethnic polarisation and economic repression, compounding on one another until the government’s confiscation of the property led to a fierce backlash by the JAM.
Yasin Abu Bakir, the leader of the Jamaat al Muslimeen’s coup attempt. Image Source: Caribbean National Weekly
During the coup itself, which lasted for six days, 42 armed insurgents stormed the national parliament of Trinidad and Tobago, with a further 72 taking control of a national broadcast station. Hostages (including the Prime Minister) were taken, the police headquarters were bombed, and demands were made that the government and military surrender, the Prime Minister resign, their leader to be made Minister of National Security, and elections called within 90 days. Twenty-four civilians were killed, and dozens more injured. At the end of the six days of violence and negotiations, the Prime Minister signed an amnesty agreement with the JAM, later rescinded by the Privy Council (Trinidad’s highest court), though the members were never re-arrested.
Although there exists an ongoing debate concerning the validity of the amnesty offered, and the coup’s leader, Yasin Abu Bakr, gained his freedom, allegations of criminal activity continued to be associated with the JAM. Until his death, Bakr remained confident that his actions were “in the defence of the people”. The government’s Commission of Enquiry, established after the coup attempt, assert that crime and violence have grown since the incident, with a Senior Magistrate stating that “1990 expanded the dimensions of crime”. The legacy of the coup is still felt as recently as 2017 however, with Trinidad remaining as the nation with the highest per capita number of ISIL recruits in the Western Hemisphere.
To this day, the attempt remains as the Western world’s only Islamist coup.
TAI Score: Degree 2. It is unlikely that the lasting impact of the 1990 coup will have significant consequences at this time. While it does allow for jihadist extremism to exist in the Americas, it is far dwarfed by the same threat existing in the Middle East. Proximity to the United States further guarantees that unless particular conditions for this phenomenon to grow considerably in scope emerge, it is not likely that jihadist violence in Trinidad and Tobago, or the Caribbean region at large, will be of significant concern.
The World’s Least Understood Country
"The superior man, when resting in safety, does not forget that danger may come…thus his person is not endangered, and his states and all their clans are preserved."
-Confucius
To understand North Korea and why it behaves the way it does, August 22nd, 1910, is arguably the most important date to begin with. After millennia of warfare and on-off occupation by China, domination by the Mongols, constant raids from Japan, and a brief period of isolated independence, it was on this day that Korea submitted to Japanese occupation. The annexation of Korea led to unthinkable cruelties inflicted on the Korean population, many of which continue to be sources of tension between Japan and both Koreas, even in the 2020’s, and was followed by Soviet domination of what would become North Korea after the conclusion of the Second World War.
This series of occupations across two thousand years of history is critical to understanding what came next.
Juche is the official term for North Korean political philosophy. It is an ideology both communist and ultranationalist in nature, that “means holding fast to an independent position, rejecting dependence on others, using one’s own brains, believing in [oneself], and thus solving one’s own problems for oneself on one’s own responsibility under all circumstances.” - as described by Kim Il-sung, the founder of modern North Korea. It places a particular focus on independence of the government, economy, and military (chaju, charip, and chawi, respectively). It was founded approximately 14 years after North Korea was, out of a paranoid need to remove Kim’s political opponents. Juche sees the toleration of foreign pressure and the maintenance of national security as zero-sum, mutually exclusive phenomenon.
More than anything else, it is dedicated to regime survival.
Yet, although it permeates every level of North Korean society, the state is extremely strict about referring to it as a “religion”. In addition to promoting the eradication of religious beliefs in society, juche has been cited by North Korean individuals sent overseas to earn foreign currency, who claim that “we were taught that religions are used by imperialists to prepare the ground for invasion.”, and former party officials have stated that “If a crime against ideology or [the party] is committed, there is no such thing as forgiveness.”.
In the modern era, particularly during and after the Trump administration, juche is heavily reflected in North Korea’s ballistic and nuclear missile program. High-level defectors and other sources have identified that the possession of nuclear weaponry is closely linked - or perceived as closely linked - to state survival by creating a near guarantee of preventing a hostile invasion. The Libya model is often pointed to by North Koreans as evidence of attempted regime de-stabilisation, given the timeline of less than 10 years between Qaddafi’s relinquishment of a nuclear weapons program, and being overthrown.
It isn’t surprising, then, that the North Korean regime will often turn to illegal activities, often appearing as similar to a criminal organisation as it does a political entity, with crimes including the production and distribution of narcotics, counterfeit currency and items, weapons and banned products smuggling, and human trafficking. After all, juche does require dedication to one’s own country “under all circumstances”.
TAI Score: Degree 5. The threat posed by the North Korean regime is significant. While understanding juche ideology does assist in addressing the issues posed by regional nuclear security, failure to properly engage with North Korea may yield catastrophic results. Even in the best of times, North Korean transnational crime causes significant issues for government and business actors. Risk assessors should remain alert.
Is A War Imminent in South America?
“Formula for success: Rise early, work hard, strike oil.'“
-J. Paul Getty
A woman stands near a mural advertising the referendum, including Essequibo within Venezuela’s borders. Source: 8News NOW
Latin America is a unique region of the world for a relatively positive reason: conflict in the region is rare. Although the continent’s many countries often struggle with protests, corruption, drugs trafficking, and inequality, inter-state warfare is less common than in other areas of the world. There are several reasons for this: human geography is relatively urbanised, with 35% of the continent’s population living in Brazil alone. In terms of physical geography, the continent is decorated with difficult terrain to navigate, including vast rainforests, wide rivers, mountains, and open deserts. In fact, Latin America is simultaneously home to both the world’s largest river and the driest desert. These factors make open, land-based, inter-state warfare difficult to wage and succeed in.
Unfortunately, however, a newly-reignited development may be brewing amongst the region’s northern neighbours, for potentially unsurprising reasons: oil.
On December 4th, 2023, Venezuela’s president Nicolas Maduro declared victory in a nationwide referendum to claim the western two-thirds of neighbouring Guyana’s territory, an area named Essequibo. Essequibo itself consists largely of the river from which its name originates, and the rainforest highlands that spread across much of central Guyana. Only approximately 125,000 people - or about 1/7th of Guyana’s population - lives in the disputed area, which accounts for more than half of Guyana’s overall territory. And yet, the oil wealth of the region discovered in 2015 lies off the coast, rather than on the land itself.
Furthermore, the discovery of oil off of Guyana’s coast is not exclusively responsible for the buildup of tensions, however. The region has been claimed by Venezuela since as early as 1899, though international tribunals have repeatedly ruled in favour of British-controlled Guyana (which later gained independence in 1966). The presence of gold mines in the region had also exacerbated tensions since the late 19th century.
In response to heightened tensions in an area where inter-state conflict is rare, multiple actors have quickly become involved. The American SOUTHCOM (the department of the military responsible for monitoring Latin American security) has conducted flyovers of Guyana in partnership with the local government. The British Royal Navy has also sent a patrol boat to assist with Guyana’s national security, and (perhaps most importantly) Brazil, the most powerful local actor, has reinforced its own northern border with Venezuela.
As of December 15th, President Maduro of Venezuela and President Irfaan Ali have jointly signed a declaration refusing to use force as a means to conflict resolution over Essequibo. War may not be fast approaching or unstoppable in Latin America, but with Maduro’s highly controversial decade in office including mass corruption, skyrocketing inflation, and flagrant censorship of opposition in consideration, the situation over Guyana’s national sovereignty will require ongoing monitoring by key players.
TAI Score: Degree 4. A Venezuelan armed conflict with Guyana would cause considerable amounts of concern for regional, and even international, actors, with a noticeable impact on international oil markets. It is likely that Brazil, Russia, and the United States would all become involved in conflict resolution, likely with competing interests. However, such conflicts remain within the possibility of resolution, and a new equilibrium of peace could be achieved - though not without considerable diplomatic efforts, and not without the risk of deception by Maduro’s government.
Africa’s Next Major Conflict - a Forecast
“150 million people cannot reside in a geographic prison”
In August of 2020, Mali’s military staged a coup d’etat that overthrew the national government. In 2021, Sudan did the same, splitting apart a country already divided in two since 2011. Burkina Faso joined them in 2022, followed by Niger and Gabon the next year. Violence between the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Rwanda remains tense, Mozambique continues to struggle with insurgency, and Sierra Leone was thrown into a panic on November 27th when rebels attacked a prison and military infrastructure in Freetown.
African countries continue to face violence and instability, but a greater threat of inter-state war may be on the horizon.
Ethiopia’s population is enormous, and shows no sign of slowing down. At present, it stands at over 126 million people, with a median age of just 18 years old. This places it at the 11th most populous country in the world, though more importantly, it stands at the largest landlocked country in the world. The strain placed on Ethiopia by having such a large, and young, population, combined with the disadvantages with being landlocked, are causing tensions in the Horn of Africa.
The (approximated) route of the Addis-Djibouti Railway line.
At present, a staggering 95% of outgoing trade from Ethiopia travels along a single railway stretching from Addis Ababa to the Port of Djibouti. To Ethiopia, this is not ideal: reliance on a single rail network for 95% of trade leaves the country’s economy vulnerable to any issues that may arise along the railway, particularly in times of conflict, where a blockade is easily achieved. The railway’s prioritisation of freight over passenger rail further means that the railway is not financially viable, with revenue being USD $30 million below operating costs, though approximately 40% growth was reported in early December 2023. Needless to say, Addis Ababa is seeking alternatives.
Thus, Ethiopia is seeking its own direct access to international waters - possibly through an invasion of southern Eritrea if necessary. This access to the sea would not be a new phenomenon to Ethiopia, and was previously available prior to Eritrea’s declaration of independence in 1993, which claimed the coastline northeast of Ethiopia. Relations between Ethiopia and Eritrea have been rocky since then - ranging from open hostility to partnership against the TPLF’s violence in 2020.
Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. Source: BBC
In October of 2023, however, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed gave a speech highlighting the importance of “Ethiopia’s need to access the Red Sea to propel it to greatness”, a quote which has unsettled politicians in Eritrea and Somalia. Ahmed’s governance has historically been highly paradoxical: despite winning a Nobel Peace Prize in 2019 for his resolution of a border dispute (also with Eritrea), he has also already engaged in 3 separate wars in the 5 years of his presidency.
Thankfully, there aren’t currently any signs that an open annexation of southern Eritrea is imminent. PM Ahmed has addressed his previous comments, saying that Ethiopia has no intentions of invading a neighbouring nation. Analysts have also pointed out that Ethiopia does not currently have the military capacity to do so, and the international reaction may offset any financial gains made from renewed access to the Red Sea. Furthermore, Tigrayans - whom Ethiopia and Eritrea recently fought side-by-side against - may feel neither willingness to participate as the backbone of Ethiopia’s fighting force, nor loyalty to Ethiopia itself.
Whether conflict is once again on the horizon along the Ethiopian-Eritrean border is unclear - as is the answer to whether the question of economic development for 126 million people justifies the invasion of another country - but with over 30% of Ethiopia’s GDP existing as incoming FDI, businesses would do well to remain aware of local and regional risks.
TAI Score: Degree 3. Ethiopia’s diplomatic standing in Africa has experienced setbacks under Prime Minister Ahmed. Concerns over the Aswan Dam with Egypt are already salient, ongoing tension in Tigray is cause for alarm, and a refreshed conflict with Eritrea would certainly not assist foreign outlooks. However, the negotiation of trade route availability is far cheaper - and likely faster - than an outbreak of conflict. The Ethiopian government will likely seek out a peaceful resolution first, but observers should remain wary.
The Fourth Flashpoint
Relative to other regions of the world, East Asia is a fairly peaceful place - even if that peace is fragile. Formal inter-state conflict has not erupted since the failed Chinese invasion of Vietnam in 1979, economic trade throughout the region is among the highest in the world, and issues such as poverty and religious extremism are largely non-applicable to most countries. That is not to say, however, that tension doesn’t exist - most scholars point to the still-formally unresolved situation on the Korean Peninsula, the political status of Taiwan, and maritime disputes, particularly over the South China Sea, as the largest flashpoints for potential conflict.
Source: Google Maps
There is, however, a fourth one - older, though less alarming, than any of the sources of tension listed above.
Chances are, you haven’t heard of the Kuril Islands - and you’d likely be forgiven if not. They' are a volcanic island chain stretching between the northern coast of Japan, and Russia’s far eastern Kamchatka Peninsula near Alaska, USA. The islands are poor, sparsely populated, and economically reliant on fishing and mineral extraction (specifically pyrite, sulphur, and polymetallic ores). The local population is merely 30,000 people.
And yet, these islands have remained as a major source of tension between Russia and Japan, two titans on the geopolitical stage, since the conclusion of the Second World War. The nature of the dispute is relatively straightforward - after the defeat of Japan at the hands of American forces in 1945, the Soviet Union swept through Manchuria (in northeastern China) and other Japanese-occupied territories, including the Kuril Islands. Although the Soviets withdrew from Manchuria in 1946, a formal Russo-Japanese peace treaty was, and has never been, signed, nor has a withdrawal from the Kuril Islands ever taken place.
It is in this regard that the complication emerges: the lack of a formal peace treaty means that Japan believes the islands remain occupied, while Russia believes that a lack of war means the islands’ status should not be changed.
In truth, such a lack of formal peace out of a war-time settlement is nothing new. The Korean War’s armistice established a ceasefire along the 38th Parallel, but a formal peace treaty there has never been signed. Similarly, areas such as Bir Tawil remain in limbo out of an obligation for countries to meet the requirements of conflicting treaties.
Source: The National Interest
Thankfully, the dispute over the Kuril Islands has rarely - if ever - become violent. In 2016, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe invited Russian President Vladimir Putin to Japan to discuss the conflict, though it ended in a stalemate. Tamerlan Abdikeev, the founder of a Tokyo-based consulting firm, has also stated that “There are several problems, such as the Russian military bases on the islands or the possible placement of American military bases if Japan gets any of the islands which will definitely not be accepted by Russia.” - a perhaps justifiable concern given the already-existent presence of US military bases in Okinawa.
Under the far more recent context of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, however, the situation has quietly shifted. An increased militarisation of the islands by Russia began in 2015, and co-operation talks with Japan, which has to date fully supported Ukraine in the conflict, have stalled as a result of sanctions over the war. This has also promoted the rebuilding of Japanese military forces, a trend previously attributed to the perceived threat posed by an increasingly assertive Chinese foreign policy.
For the islands’ few residents, life will remain difficult. Development in local towns is extremely low, with no significant roads or gas stations in place - leaving residents to purchase fuel stolen from their own factories to heat their homes, and engage in the poaching of fish to keep food on the table. As talks the relationship between Japan and Russia has all but collapsed, their lives show minimal signs of improvement for the foreseeable future - and East Asia’s fourth point of tension, as comparably minor as it is, remains in place.
TAI Score: Degree 3. Russian actions have been noticeably more aggressive over the past year, and the re-armament of Japan may serve to further inflame tensions over the Kuril Islands. While the advantage of ownership over the Kuril Islands is minimal with respect to material gain, strategic advantage is certainly present - and may someday be leveraged by either nation for domestic support.
Plymouth, Montserrat
In August 2022, SimpleNation published an article about Nicosia, the world’s last divided capital. Today’s capital city is perhaps even more unusual in nearly every way.
Montserrat, like most of its neighbours, is an exceptionally small, mountainous island in the Caribbean ranging only 103 square kilometers (40 square miles) in size. The island was colonised with people of majority Irish descent in 1632, though Native inhabitants are believed to have lived there from as early as 3000 BCE. Montserrat was first discovered by Spain, but colonised by Britain before being controlled back and forth by Britain and France, until 1783 when Britain regained authority for the final time. The island today maintains a small tourist industry and a population of less than 5000.
Source: WorldAtlas
Perhaps most strangely, however, is that not a single person lives in the de jure capital city of Plymouth, making it the only capital city in the world to officially report zero inhabitants.
The reason is no accident. In 1997, the eruption of the Soufriere Hills volcano in the island’s south erupted. In addition to the deaths of 19 people, this also led to the destruction of 80% of Plymouth, resulting in its burial under 1.4 meters (4.6 ft.) under ash. In fact, the destruction was so widespread that the entire southern two-thirds of the island was declared an uninhabitable exclusion zone, divided into five areas for closer regionalised inspection. Since the eruption, approximately 9000 people - or around two-thirds of the pre-eruption population - were evacuated as refugees by the British Royal Navy, and have not returned. Montserrat’s de facto capital city has since been moved to the northern city of Brades, where local government offices now operate despite a lack of international recognition.
Plymouth, Montserrat, sits empty and silent beneath the Soufriere Hills volcano. Source: ExplorersWeb
Unfortunately, Montserrat also faces an annual hurricane season, which has intensified in recent years due stronger storms created by climate change.
Some good news surrounding the eruption of the Soufriere Hills volcano and complete evacuation of Plymouth does exist, however. The island’s ingenuity is found in its decision to capitalise upon the very volcano that nearly eradicated it by promoting sand mining, geothermal energy production, and a new type of tourism. Montserrat has re-branded Plymouth as the “Pompeii of the Caribbean”, particularly selling the fascinating contrast between the vibrant, green north with the island’s silent, grey south. And near the volcano, four of the exclusion zone’s five areas have long been green-lit for tourism, with the fifth approved for the same visitors in April of 2023.
Although the island’s population has been in decline for several years now, the construction of new critical infrastructure such as an airport on the island by the British government signals that all is not lost - and makes one wonder if Plymouth may one day be home to people once more.
TAI Score: Degree 1. The Soufriere Hills Volcano is a contained phenomenon incapable of spreading beyond Montserrat. While its damage to the island was significant, it is extremely unlikely to cause continued and/or enlarged impact beyond its shores. At most, it serves as a warning to risk assessors examining the establishment of businesses and communities in areas with active volcanic activity.
The Trans-American Void
Source: Council on Foreign Relations
The Pan-American highway is the longest road in the world. Beginning on Alaska’s northern coast near Prudhoe Bay, and ending near Ushuaia, at the southern tip of Argentina, it stretches almost exactly 30,000 kilometers, or nearly 20,000 miles, across two continents, through fourteen countries, and across vast deserts, dense jungles, and treacherous mountains. Dangers along the route include scarcity of fuel and supplies, cartel and trafficking violence, and adverse climate conditions, some of which are guaranteed at given times of year - a particular challenge given the expected shift in season between the northern and southern hemispheres.
It would stretch continuously across both continents if it weren’t for one stretch, barely over 100 kilometers (66 miles) long, existing as one of the most dangerous jungles on earth.
The Darien Gap is located specifically in eastern Panama, along the country’s border with Colombia. It contains nearly every hazard to life that an individual can think of: deadly wildlife, narco- and human traffickers, guerrilla fighters, towering mountains, an overall lack of adequate infrastructure, and even unexploded Cold War-era bombs all maintain a presence in the area.
It may seem confusing how and why such factors, however, prevent the construction of a road, particularly given similar threats existing in other countries such as Peru and Mexico, where the Pan-American Highway has already been fully completed. Environmentalists have pointed to the integrity of the jungle as a critical factor, alongside health officials who raised concerns surrounding the spread of hoof-and-mouth disease through intensive cattle farming. These pieces of evidence were presented in the 1970s, halting the last major efforts to complete the Highway, even despite the offer from the United States to finance 60% of overall costs. Lastly, the Panamanian government sees value in leaving it largely untouched, given its further status as a home to indigenous peoples, and a natural barrier against crime in and beyond the jungle.
Source: NPR
This has not stopped migrant traffic, an ongoing regional issue, however. Despite the astonishing dangers described above, approximately 250,000 people still crossed the Darien Gap in 2022, a number reached by August of this year, and expected to double by the end of 2023, many of them being organised and equipped by criminal groups. These migrants come primarily from Haiti and Venezuela, though other groups of people from as far away as Africa and even Afghanistan have been noted as migrating illegally across the Gap.
And yet, in spite of everything mentioned above, tourism in the Gap is simultaneously a salient presence. A German company named Wandermut received backlash for offering group packages there, TripAdvisor maintains reviews on the area with named organisations offering tours, and even testimonies of tourist interactions with illegal migrants have been published online.
In the end, the true testimony here is perhaps that the world is as curious as it can be dangerous - especially in the Darien Gap.
TAI Score: Degree 3. Irregular migration patterns and an inability to enforce legal systems in the Darien Gap is already causing issues as far away as the United States, where illegal immigration is playing a significant role in the 2024 presidential election. Drug and gang violence are further fanning flames of populist sentiment. Though the Gap itself is not inherently a threat, phenomena existing within it are displaying an outsized impact abroad.
Bangladesh
Fast Facts
Location: South Asia
Capital: Dhaka
Population: 169.35 million (2021)
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Language(s): Bengali (as well as dozens of other local dialects)
Climate: Humid sub-tropical, affected by seasonal monsoon rains
GDP: USD $416.26 billion
Human Development Index Ranking: 0.503 (Moderate-Low)
Overview
Nestled between India and Myanmar, Bangladesh is a small country with an enormous population for its size. Even after accounting for micro-states, city-states, and territories claimed by larger nations, Bangladesh still ranks in the top 10 most densely populated countries in the world, with over 23,000 people living per square kilometer in the capital city of Dhaka. Although it cannot be rightfully called an authoritarian state, issues with journalistic freedoms and political opposition have (as in many countries) recently arisen, rights for women and girls have remained difficult, and Burmese internal conflicts have strained Bangladeshi resources by triggering an incoming wave of refugees in the east.
And yet, life in Bangladesh has steadily improved over the past few decades. Life expectancy has grown steadily, and by 20 years, since the early 1990s, GDP per capita has never declined since records began in 1990 (with an increase of approximately 700% from 1990 - 2021), and population control is being undertaken in a responsible, safe, and popular way through education surrounding family planning, birth control provision, and emphasis on better economic stability. Whether Bangladesh can continue to develop in spite of shocks to the international system remains to be seen - but between global financial crises and devastating cyclones, in many ways, it seems to have done so already.
History
Sheikh Mujibur Rahman delivers the historic speech calling for Bangladeshi independence. Credit: The Independent
Please note that all references to “Bangladesh” refer to the region (at least partially) within the modern-day country’s borders.
Although the history of an independent Bangladesh as we know it today dates back a mere half-century, Stone Age tools dating back 20,000 years have been identified within the country, indicating a long history of human settlement in the area. Rice cultivation in the area is estimated to have begun approximately 4000 years ago.
The first great empire into which Bangladesh was incorporated was the Mauryan Empire, beginning in approximately 320 BC with the decline of Alexander the Great’s empire in the South Asian region. Under the rule of the Mauryan Empire, most famously led by Emperor Asoka, Buddhism arrived in Bangladesh (though, according to popular story, the Buddha himself had visited Bangladesh prior to this period). Following the decline of the Mauryan Empire, Bangladesh was re-named Samatata, and, despite being politically sovereign, served primarily as a tribute state to the neighbouring Gupta Empire of India, which lasted until approximately 540 AD. The short-lived Harsha Empire would later incorporate Samatata into its borders, only to be overthrown by a Buddhist chief named Gopala, who would found the Pala Dynasty famed for providing trade, influence, and security to Bangladesh.
The Pala Dynasty declined several centuries later as a series of kings dying led to power being eclipsed by the nearby Sena Dynasty, who re-introduced militant Hinduism to the area. Islam was introduced to Bangladesh by Turkic invaders from the west, who defeated the last of the Sena kings to secure a Muslim foothold in the country at the beginning of the 13th century. Muslim rule of Bangladesh is generally categorised into three periods: a first phase from (roughly) 1204 to 1342 of consolidation and instability, the emergence of independent local dynasties from approximately 1342 to 1575, and the conception of a centralised political framework in Bengal as a subsidiary of the Mughal Empire.
The decline of the Mughal Empire in the 18th century coincided with the growing power of the British Empire in South Asia, and by the 1760s, the British East India Company had emerged as the most dominant power in Bangladesh. Over the next two centuries, trade was controlled and taxes extracted through a group of elite, wealthy landowners named zamindars. In 1765, Bengal (along with the provinces of Bihar and Orissa) had united into a single political entity. By 1900, they had become too large to unite under a single administration - as such, it was split in 1905 by the ruling British along ethnic and religious lines, with Hindus in the west, and Muslims in the east. This partition caused mass unrest and calls for boycott of British goods, but was short lived: merely six years later, Bengal had reunited to appease the population, but caused resentment in Bengali Muslims, whom had benefitted from partition.
The overstretched nature of the British Empire, combined with two world wars in less than a half-century, led to increasingly impassioned calls for national independence in dozens of its colonies. The end of colonial rule in South Asia officially occurred in 1947, with Britain hastily drawing borders between India and Pakistan (of which Bangladesh was, bizarrely, combined with). In fact, the modern Indo-Pakistani border was drawn in just 5 weeks by Cyril Radcliffe, a lawyer who had never set foot in India. The outcome following the Partition of India was by no means peaceful: divisions across religious and ethnic lines caused mass violence, riots, killings, and the uprooting of 18 million people migrating across newly- (and poorly-) formed borders.
Relations between Pakistan and its subsidiary on the other side of India, Bangladesh (known from 1955 - 1971 as “East Pakistan”) were frequently tense. Refusal to accept Bengali as a state language, a lack of response to the devastating Cyclone Bhola, economic and political disparity, martial law, and general mistreatment of Bengali people are all cited as reasons for a poor relationship. By 1970, the victory of Sheikh Mujibur Rahman and the Awami League (a political party that had campaigned on Bangladeshi autonomy from Pakistan) in an election unrecognised by Pakistan, and Bangladesh’s subsequent declaration of independence in 1971, led to open and horrific violence in Bangladesh. Fighter jets, napalm, and tanks were deployed, with crimes committed being considered by some to fulfill the definition of genocide. The conflict spiraled far enough out of control for it to include India’s participation against Pakistan for several weeks.
Since securing independence from Pakistan, Bangladesh’s road to democracy and stability has been shaky. Issues surrounding corruption, military rule, and accusations of electoral integrity violations remain persistent. The introduction of Rohingya refugees fleeing persecution and violence in neighbouring Myanmar have certainly introduced a new dimension of socio-political issues in Bangladesh, though the situation appears largely stable - if difficult.
Economy
Despite political uncertainty, the economic outlook of Bangladesh is fairly positive. The World Bank identifies a number of statistics that show positive development, including a reduction in poverty rates from 43% to 14% from 1991 - 2016. It is further expected to graduate from the UN’s classification of “Less Economically Developed Country” by 2026 at current rates. BRAC, one of the world’s largest non-governmental humanitarian organisations, calls Bangladesh a “global model for poverty reduction” due to the popularisation of microfinance programs (such as the Grameen Bank), a strong emphasis on the stabilisation of public health, and more. In fact, Bangladesh’s poverty reduction program has been so successful that leading think-tanks have analysed whether its methods could be scaled up and applied elsewhere in the world’s poorest areas.
However, success is not guaranteed for any country, including Bangladesh. The East Asia forum identifies high inflation, a trade deficit, and a fragile banking system as weak points of the country’s economy. A lack of energy security and reliability for nearly 80% of the country is a further area that requires addressing - though many of the issue’s sources lie externally, such as shifts in international fuel prices following the invasion of Ukraine.
Bangladesh’s top imports include petroleum, cotton, wheat, and fabrics, primarily from major producers such as China, India, the USA, and Indonesia. Major exports include clothing, seafood, pharmaceuticals, and plastic products.
Population Dynamics in Bangladesh - And Why They’re More Hopeful Than You Think
Credit: Rama George-Alleyne via the World Bank
In 2014, the renowned Swedish demographic statistician Hans Rosling hosted a TED Talk entitled “Don’t Panic” in which he focused on why people should feel more optimistic about global population numbers, with a particular focus on Bangladesh. Rosling surveyed the British public asking how many children they believed the average Bangladeshi woman gave birth to, with 35% of British people answering “4.5”. Had the year they were asked been 1990, they would have been correct. But in 2014, the answer was 2.2. In 2022, the answer was 1.95, officially below the replacement rate for the first time.
So how did such a phenomenon occur, when just 50 years ago, the average woman in Bangladesh was having nearly 7 children?
Initially, the programme faced few successes. This was largely attributable to an over-emphasis on contraception, without focusing on child and maternal health - when families believe few children will survive to adulthood, they will have a large number of children. Efforts were further hampered by religious leaders, and experts claim that it was often difficult to communicate with a deeply religious and conservative population. But tides turned when religious leaders were included in the conversation and campaign, girls and women were (respectively) afforded better access to education and contraceptive healthcare, and mass media pointed out that fewer children meant a smaller financial burden. These programmes were even assisted by adaptive government policies responding to past unrelated crises - for example, a famine that emerged in the mid-1970s called for improvements to rural infrastructure, later used by female health practitioners to more easily reach deprived, rural areas.
Efforts made by Bangladesh have not gone unnoticed - and the results have rightfully led to the country receiving international praise.
Trivia
-The roar of the Bengal tiger, Bangladesh’s national animal, can be heard from 3 kilometers away.
-The Bangladeshi city of Mahasthangarh is dated back to approximately 300 BCE, and is the country’s oldest city.
-Bangladesh used to be home to the world’s only third-order enclave. An area known as Dahala Khagrabari was an Indian-owned territory, surrounded by a Bangladeshi territory, surrounded by another Indian territory, surrounded by Bangladesh.
-Bangladesh is the most vegetarian country in the world, with the average person eating only approximately 4kg of meat per year. For reference, the average person in the UK consumes nearly 80 kg of meat per year.
The Other Separatists
At the time of writing this article, it’s nearly the end of 2022. For many of us, it’s likely the first year that COVID-19 hasn’t dominated every media outlet’s headlines every month, mainly due to it being overtaken by more major stories: looming economic turmoil, protests in Iran, Indonesia, and Peru (to name but a few), colossal flooding in Pakistan, and the death of Queen Elizabeth II. However, it feels as if by far the most reported-on news story in the West has been the now 10-month old Russian invasion of Ukraine, which has received a colossal amount of scrutiny and analysis over the course of the year.
It isn’t, however, the first time Russia conducted an invasion of a neighbour in recent memory. In fact, it isn’t even Russia’s first invasion of Ukraine in recent memory. Three breakaway states (not including Donetsk and Luhansk in Ukraine), maintaining minimal (if any) international recognition, exist in eastern Europe and the Caucasus as direct outcomes of Soviet collapse.
Transnistria
Credit: BBC News
Located near the Ukrainian border in eastern Moldova, Transnistria is a separatist region diplomatically unrecognised by every country in the world. It is, however, supported by Russia economically, politically, and militarily, with about 1500 Russian troops stationed there, though many of them are ethnic Russians, born and raised in Transnistria, who have been provided Russian passports. Despite no country recognising the territory as independent, the Moldovan government is unable to exercise any authority over the region and its nearly 500,000 people, rendering it a functionally separate state. Russia’s interests in this sliver of land are largely political. In recent decades, Moldova has taken on an increasingly pro-Western stance away from Moscow, and by maintaining troops in Transnistria, Russia could quickly eliminate Moldovan EU membership ambitions by destabilising the country. By simultaneously not recognising the breakaway state, however, Russian options remain flexible.
South Ossetia
Europe’s first 21st century war erupted on August 8, 2008, with the Russian invasion of Georgia. The origins of this conflict can be traced back to Georgia’s brief civil war with two separatist states following the dissolution of the USSR. Tensions simmered for nearly two decades until then-president of Georgia, Mikheil Saakashvili, responded to clashes in the region by ordering troops to capture Ossetia’s regional capital. Russia’s response to the Georgian crackdown was fast, but brief: Russian troops were deployed to Georgia to defend the breakaway province, fighting for only five days but guaranteeing greater levels of self-governance for the separatists. Today, only Russia, Syria, Nicaragua, Venezuela, and Nauru recognise South Ossetia as an independent republic.
Abkhazia
Credit: Radio Free Europe
The other separatist state located between Georgia and Russia is that of Abkhazia. Entering a geopolitical quagmire through, and during, the same conflict as South Ossetia above, Abkhazia represents the other half of Russian occupation in formerly Georgian territory. The Abkhaz, however, are different from Ossetians in that they fear the erosion of their language and cultural identity, a trend that can be identified through tensions over sovereignty issues in even the Russo-Abkhaz relationship. The same list of countries that recognise South Ossetia also recognise Abkhazia.
Why do these issues matter?
Aside from killing hundreds of Georgians and Russians and injuring thousands more, the war in 2008 is significant due to its almost uncanny (if significantly scaled-down) similarity to ongoing hostilities in eastern Ukraine. Lessons learnt from the conclusion of the 2008 crisis would be useful for any security analyst to draw upon for the implementation of policy and law for when this year’s conflict eventually concludes. For now, however, these conflicts - whose origins lie in the early 1990s - in Georgia and Ukraine ultimately validate the point made by Foreign Policy magazine and Franak Viacorka from the Atlantic Council: the Soviet Union may be gone, but here at the end of 2022, it is still collapsing.
TAI Score: Degree 3. These separatist movements have potential for renewed armed conflict in their respective countries. Trends similar to their experiences and outcomes are already manifesting in eastern Ukraine, and are crippling nations with otherwise high potential. They certainly hold capability to destabilise European nations by creating refugee crises and threatening supply lines. Risk assesors should monitor these respective situations and work towards bespoke solutions - as a “one-size-fits-all” approach is rarely appropriate in international security.
